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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 07-10-2018, 10:46 AM   #1
elocutionist
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Turf Routes

It would be helpful to hear members thoughts on this subject. Since turf routes generally have bigger fields, they present good betting opportunities. Rx seems to be an important factor, because it is weighted towards class and vdc. I like horse that show increasing velocity in the 2nd and 3rd fractions. Having watched many turf races, trip and jockeys seem to matter. I've seen too many races where a good horse is stuck in traffic or a pacesetter walks the dog on a projected honest pace race and goes on with it. Any thoughts would be appreciated.
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Old 07-10-2018, 11:28 AM   #2
tom
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My concerns about tuff races is that many of the races are run very slow early, and that can totally screw up your readouts. As Tim used to preach - use more than one paceline to verify your line selection.

This is where I used to LOVE KGen - it was the best program Doc ever wrote, IMHO. Aberrant lines just stood out like sore thumbs.

Trips play a big part in turf races, so I am not at all bothered by going back for a paceline. I tend to use the best line from the last 6, no matter how long ago.
If I make the horse a contender, I want his best turf line within a half a furlong.
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Old 07-12-2018, 10:32 PM   #3
Lefty
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Me Too

I also was a big fan of KGEN. Did really well with it.
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Old 07-25-2018, 10:06 PM   #4
Bill Lyster
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Turf factors

This stat sounds contradictory, but I tend to think its an unrecognized feature of turf racing.

Since the start of DMR and SAR there have been 34 turf races of all distances.

Pace of Horse F1 top 4 ranked horses have won 27 races (79%)

SAme stats for CBL (Computed beaten lengths on the Segments screen)

At Saratoga so far 12 of the 16 races have been won by top 3 POH, F1 horses. Its not the same at DMR.

I have SA stats from 2013 for all turf races where these factors show about the same within a couple of points for top 3 (but I cannot tell if the lines were best of last 3 comparable or not). They are based on best of 3 comparable for the current meetings. At DMR 18 winners have AVERAGED 14.1/1 win odds?
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Old 07-26-2018, 01:07 AM   #5
dlivery
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Those Numbers

Hey there

Thanks for your imput as those numbers arent easy to come buy
Again with out records
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Old 07-26-2018, 09:55 AM   #6
Bill Lyster
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
This stat sounds contradictory, but I tend to think its an unrecognized feature of turf racing.

Since the start of DMR and SAR there have been 34 turf races of all distances.

Pace of Horse F1 top 4 ranked horses have won 27 races (79%)

SAme stats for CBL (Computed beaten lengths on the Segments screen)

At Saratoga so far 12 of the 16 races have been won by top 3 POH, F1 horses. Its not the same at DMR.

I have SA stats from 2013 for all turf races where these factors show about the same within a couple of points for top 3 (but I cannot tell if the lines were best of last 3 comparable or not). They are based on best of 3 comparable for the current meetings. At DMR 18 winners have AVERAGED 14.1/1 win odds?
What I meant to say about DMR is that its about the same as far as top 4 POH F1, but the number of winners at DMR that are top 3 POH F1 falls off sharply. This probably accounts for some of the big prices at DMR compared to SAR where the average winning odds are 5.3/1.
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Old 07-26-2018, 01:23 PM   #7
Bill V.
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Firm

Hi Bill

Thanks for the info. I think your stats are great.

Bill
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