Betting question/opinion - Pace and Cap

dirty moose · 07-23-2013, 11:36 AM

Hey guys. So I've been working with Tim (LT1) he's been teaching me for a few months now. I asked him this question lastnight. I'm interested in everyone's options.

Lets say that you won't bet unless the odds are greater ththan 8/5 or whatever you prefer. One of your 2 horse goes off at
less than 8/5 and you other goes off above 8/5. Do you skip the race entirely? Do you just bet the one horse that is higher than 8/5? Or don't something else with the race?

Thanks for the input.
Matt

Bill V. · 07-23-2013, 01:58 PM

Hi Matt

I always need two horses to make my bet
If I see one of them fall below 2/1 I pass the race

I have no problems passing races

There is another one coming up in a few minutes

Bill

dirty moose · 07-23-2013, 02:12 PM

Hey Bill this seems to be my problem.
I can only cap on the weekend so I never want to skip a race on the weekends.
But I can see I'm losing money in those spots.

noddub62 · 07-23-2013, 02:16 PM

Hi Matt,

One the best (in my opinion) ways to get proficient in handicapping is to learn the art of passing races. There are many races where your top two or three horses are close in closing odds and if your wager on them you can lose money or at least not get any value for your bet.

There is a very good article in the Followup (don't remember which) about passing races. This has helped me a great deal with my handicapping. My personal requirements are pass if there are 2 at 2:1 or less, no value, an overwhelming favorite that is sitting on top of your readouts, and any time the race just doesn't feel right to you.

Keep records and see what works for you. Then you can cherry pick the races that you excel in and maybe make a cherry pie!

Have a good day,

Bud

dirty moose · 07-23-2013, 02:47 PM

I'm gonna try it out over the weekend. I think my results will deff go up.

dirty moose · 07-27-2013, 01:25 PM

Just passed 2 races in a row where one horse was low odds and both races my second horse came in pay $11 and $7. Frustrating! But I know I must stick to the game plan.

Bill V. · 07-27-2013, 01:52 PM

hello Matt

Here is the deal, Try to not think in terms of 1 horse or 2 horses
In The Sartin Methodology and wager-capping we need to think in terms of 3

What I mean and I hope I didn't miss guide you or anybody. When I handicap
a race I almost always have 5 win contenders But for now lets focus on the
top 3 If I have 3 horses on top of BLBL and 1 of them is under 5/2
I will bet the other 2 horses. If however 2 of the top 3 are under 5/2,
Now I only have 1 horse to bet so I will pass the race.

The value of wagercapping in the Sartin Methodology is that because you
by pass the low odds horse you now have two longer price horses.
The public made the low odds horse, Now since you have gone 2 horses
down on the odds board your looking at a horse who has just as good readouts. In the Sartin Methodology all three horse on top of your BLBL
should be considered as equal ability, The deciding factor is the near post time odds.

Here is what I mean

Race 1 My BLBL shows as my top 3 Horse A B and C since they are the top 3
BLBL they should be looked at as equal ability, You should not handicap off of the top 3 BLBL! Your handicapping is in your pace line selection.

Horse A is 5/2
Horse B is 6/5
Horse C is 5/1

Here my bets are horse A and C

Race Race 2 My BLBL shows as my top 3 Horse D E and F =All are equal
Horse A is 8/5
Horse B is 6/5
Horse C is 12/1

Here I have only 1 horse - horse C
So since I only bet to win, this is a pass
and I will tell you. I have been burned by horse C types !
Its a method that in the long run will pay off if you pass consistently.

THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IS >>
Make sure the low odds horse is beatable !!
This is were its so important to learn FTL's lessons
Make sure before you throw out or in Doc's words "hide" a horse
for win only, Make sure the horse is not a man eater

Bill

dirty moose · 07-27-2013, 09:59 PM

This is a great post for all of us that are still learning the game.
Thanks Bill

Latekick · 07-27-2013, 11:13 PM

Hey Matt.
Ive also started working with LT and he has spoken high of you. Id like to go through some cards with you and see how you put what hes saying into your handicapping. hes realy helped me and I know he has said you are really progressing.
Send me a private message and ill send you my email so we can discuss some cards wherever you choose

dirty moose · 07-28-2013, 12:31 AM

Hey Latekick. LT is the man! He tough me so much out of the kindness of his heart. I really can't thank him enough. I should thank him even more for him listening to my complaining lol.

Ted has a way of connecting computers. We can do that and go thru a few races. Or we can use skype (which I tried to get LT on. We still need to help him lol)

07-23-2013, 11:36 AM	#1
dirty moose Grade 1 Join Date: May 2013 Location: NY Posts: 455	Betting question/opinion Hey guys. So I've been working with Tim (LT1) he's been teaching me for a few months now. I asked him this question lastnight. I'm interested in everyone's options. Lets say that you won't bet unless the odds are greater ththan 8/5 or whatever you prefer. One of your 2 horse goes off at less than 8/5 and you other goes off above 8/5. Do you skip the race entirely? Do you just bet the one horse that is higher than 8/5? Or don't something else with the race? Thanks for the input. Matt

07-23-2013, 01:58 PM	#2
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	I skip it Hi Matt I always need two horses to make my bet If I see one of them fall below 2/1 I pass the race I have no problems passing races There is another one coming up in a few minutes Bill

07-27-2013, 01:52 PM	#7
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	ok hello Matt Here is the deal, Try to not think in terms of 1 horse or 2 horses In The Sartin Methodology and wager-capping we need to think in terms of 3 What I mean and I hope I didn't miss guide you or anybody. When I handicap a race I almost always have 5 win contenders But for now lets focus on the top 3 If I have 3 horses on top of BLBL and 1 of them is under 5/2 I will bet the other 2 horses. If however 2 of the top 3 are under 5/2, Now I only have 1 horse to bet so I will pass the race. The value of wagercapping in the Sartin Methodology is that because you by pass the low odds horse you now have two longer price horses. The public made the low odds horse, Now since you have gone 2 horses down on the odds board your looking at a horse who has just as good readouts. In the Sartin Methodology all three horse on top of your BLBL should be considered as equal ability, The deciding factor is the near post time odds. Here is what I mean Race 1 My BLBL shows as my top 3 Horse A B and C since they are the top 3 BLBL they should be looked at as equal ability, You should not handicap off of the top 3 BLBL! Your handicapping is in your pace line selection. Horse A is 5/2 Horse B is 6/5 Horse C is 5/1 Here my bets are horse A and C Race Race 2 My BLBL shows as my top 3 Horse D E and F =All are equal Horse A is 8/5 Horse B is 6/5 Horse C is 12/1 Here I have only 1 horse - horse C So since I only bet to win, this is a pass and I will tell you. I have been burned by horse C types ! Its a method that in the long run will pay off if you pass consistently. THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IS >> Make sure the low odds horse is beatable !! This is were its so important to learn FTL's lessons Make sure before you throw out or in Doc's words "hide" a horse for win only, Make sure the horse is not a man eater Bill Last edited by Bill V.; 07-27-2013 at 01:55 PM.

Similar Threads
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
Betting Practice Case Example - Pktruckdriver	Ted Craven	July Contest	13	07-29-2012 03:28 PM
Betting...DO's and DON'T's	For The Lead	General Discussion	2	07-05-2012 03:40 PM
Bet Size when Betting more than 1 Horse	classhandicapper	General Discussion	15	12-08-2011 02:29 PM
Place Betting on European Betting Exchanges	alydar_ David	General Discussion	1	09-13-2009 01:35 PM
Pick Three Betting Strategy	Turbulator	Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum	9	09-07-2008 07:07 PM

07-23-2013, 02:12 PM	#3
dirty moose Grade 1 Join Date: May 2013 Location: NY Posts: 455	Hey Bill this seems to be my problem. I can only cap on the weekend so I never want to skip a race on the weekends. But I can see I'm losing money in those spots.

07-23-2013, 02:16 PM	#4
noddub62 Budman Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 797	Hi Matt, One the best (in my opinion) ways to get proficient in handicapping is to learn the art of passing races. There are many races where your top two or three horses are close in closing odds and if your wager on them you can lose money or at least not get any value for your bet. There is a very good article in the Followup (don't remember which) about passing races. This has helped me a great deal with my handicapping. My personal requirements are pass if there are 2 at 2:1 or less, no value, an overwhelming favorite that is sitting on top of your readouts, and any time the race just doesn't feel right to you. Keep records and see what works for you. Then you can cherry pick the races that you excel in and maybe make a cherry pie! Have a good day, Bud

07-23-2013, 02:47 PM	#5
dirty moose Grade 1 Join Date: May 2013 Location: NY Posts: 455	I'm gonna try it out over the weekend. I think my results will deff go up.

07-27-2013, 01:25 PM	#6
dirty moose Grade 1 Join Date: May 2013 Location: NY Posts: 455	Just passed 2 races in a row where one horse was low odds and both races my second horse came in pay $11 and $7. Frustrating! But I know I must stick to the game plan.

07-27-2013, 09:59 PM	#8
dirty moose Grade 1 Join Date: May 2013 Location: NY Posts: 455	This is a great post for all of us that are still learning the game. Thanks Bill

07-27-2013, 11:13 PM	#9
Latekick Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 389	Hey Matt. Ive also started working with LT and he has spoken high of you. Id like to go through some cards with you and see how you put what hes saying into your handicapping. hes realy helped me and I know he has said you are really progressing. Send me a private message and ill send you my email so we can discuss some cards wherever you choose

07-28-2013, 12:31 AM	#10
dirty moose Grade 1 Join Date: May 2013 Location: NY Posts: 455	Hey Latekick. LT is the man! He tough me so much out of the kindness of his heart. I really can't thank him enough. I should thank him even more for him listening to my complaining lol. Ted has a way of connecting computers. We can do that and go thru a few races. Or we can use skype (which I tried to get LT on. We still need to help him lol)