Why NOT Maidens?

[Bill Lyster]

What I meant to say, but didn't get to in the last post was that I have gone back and rehandicapped all of the maiden races that I have from the start of Santa Anita. I have not tabulated the results so far, but I can tell you that the number of high odds winners WAY outweighs handicapping maiden races any other way than FTL has layed out for us. When there end up being only two contenders after eliminations it often happens that they run 1-3 and if the two contenders are best of all contenders, running 1-2 occurs often enough.

Thanks again FTL

Bill

[For The Lead]

I haven’t posted anything in this thread for a while, so I decided to post a couple of winners from yesterday.
Now I’m not trying to make everybody maiden race players, but I do want to show that there is money to be made from maiden races. Naturally, like any other kind of race, you are not going to win them all, but when you consider some of the prices you get, you don’t need to!!

Here’s the winner, #6. It paid $15.40. It has just one start, 15 days ago, where it fought for the lead through the first two calls at today’s class level.


Here is the #9 horse. I thought I would explain the reason for including this horse as a contender. (1) It is dropping down from 20k to 5k. Notice the improvement from its’ first race vs. Maiden Special Weight to 20k. (2) That improvement propelled this horse close to the lead at the first call last race. I want to see how it matches up to the #6 horse who is obviously going for the lead.


Then I thought I would show the #11 and #12. First #11.


Notice that this horse is “0 for 35”. I wouldn't bet this horse with your money!! In fact, I would take your money and bet it on some other horse, because this horse has 2 chances of winning…slim and none…regardless of how it shows on the BL/BL. An “0 for 35” maiden is just a horrible bet. Now here comes the best part…
THEY MADE THIS HORSE THE FAVORITE!!!!!

Now the #12 horse.


This horse comes in as the second WORST horse in the race at “0 for 19”.

I mean, you just have to love a race where there are two horses like these. It appears they have all the credentials, but they can be dismissed out of hand.

Next post will be the screen shots and chart of the race.

[For The Lead]

Ok, here are the usual screen shots I post along with the chart of the race.

The main thing I'm looking for here is whether or not the #6 can make the lead.

Notice that the #11 and #12 are the top 2 horses on the BL/BL screen and have almost all the #1 and #2 rankings.....except #1 for EPR. #6 has that.

[For The Lead]

And I couldn't let the day go by without posting this one.

Here are the contenders. There are only two of them, so two horse bettors have nothing else to do except walk to the window and bet!!


Now I want to show you the winner.
Just one race 23 days ago where it ran 2nd beat 3.5 lengths.


Now I want to show you the favorite.


It has two races. One was 24 days ago and the other was "332" days ago.
I think it is obvious that the public made this horse the favorite on the strength of this horses first race which was at BEL. It''s a nice race, just 332 days old.
The public completely ignored its' most recent DULL RACE.

Our contender, whose ML was 10/1 paid $56.20!!!!!

[Dorianmode]

Very interesting thread. I also have started looking at some of these races for the first time, and having good success. The criteria I have is that there has to be some sign that at least one or two of the horses in the race has run in the recent past like it actually wants to win. If it's just a collection of "nags", then I won't touch it, but some of the high classs , (esp MSW) races are just as good as any other race.

[atlasaxis]

FTL, you're an absolute GENIUS, after the fact. Try posting these BEFORE the race is run without the redboarding. Seriously, ya gotta laugh at this stuff.

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Please Note: several posts responding to this comment about 'red-boarding' were moved to their own Thread here --> http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?p=89442 in order that this Thread could continue to be focused on teaching about Maiden races. Kindly make responses related to the 'red-boarding' topic in the NEW Thread. Thanks! TED
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[Bill V.]

Back in my youth I met a young lady who was going to college at the university
of Delaware . She was a beauty, We spent the summer of 1980 going down to the Jersey shore. She always wore a blue tee shirt over her bathing suit
when we walked around guys would always say HI HO Pimlico
I had no idea what Pimlico was !

But Now when I see opening day at Pimlico I get a big smile

Here is race 2 today a MS 40000 I only had lines for 3 horse
following FTL's guidelines

The 7 was 6-1 when I bet it
The 2 was about 5/2 I split my bets 60 /40
but the winner # 4 went to about 2/1

here are my readouts

[For The Lead]

I haven’t posted anything here for a while, but Bill V. asked me to look at this race.
It’s a $20,000 Maiden Claiming race going 6 furlongs.

I will follow the same procedures as I do in every race I post.

The #8 horse was scratched.
There are 2 first time starters, #3 and #13. BOTH of them are eliminated from consideration.
There are 3 horses with a Morning Line of 20/1 or greater, the #5, #6 and #11. All three are dismissed from consideration.
The #4 horse hasn’t run in 147 days and will not be considered.

The remaining 6 horses have all had a race in the last 90 days. These will be the horses that will be considered for a line…IF they have a “+” or “(+)” line in the last 90 days.

#1 – NO LINE. last race was a turf route. Line 2 is just a bad line. Line 3 is a good line, but it is 108 days ago.
#2 – NO LINE. This horse has two races back after a layoff of 287 days. Neither line is a “+” or a “(+)” line.
#7 – LINE 1. This horse has just two races. After its’ first start it was off for 104 days. In its’ return race (25 days ago) it showed good early speed to the half mile point of the race before fading.
#9 – LINE 1. This is another horse with just two lifetime races. After its’ first start it was away from the races for 252 days. In its’ return race (28 days ago) it ran a pressing race and being 2nd at the second call just 2 lengths behind the leader before fading down the stretch, but still finishing 3rd.
#10 – NO LINE. This is another horse with just two lifetime races. Unfortunately, neither race is a “+” or a “(+)”.
#12 – LINE 1. I’m using a line for this horse simply because it has a “(+)” race just 22 days ago. I will leave it in just to see its’ effect on the other contenders. However, let me be clear, I WOULD NOT BET ON THIS HORSE. The horse is 0 for 26 lifetime and I can’t think of a much worse animal than a maiden that is 0 for “ a whole bunch of races”. They have learned to lose and that is what they keep on doing…losing.

Let's look at the "Original" screen.



On this screen we can see that line 1 was used for each horse.
We can also see that all horses have had a race in the last 30 days.
We can see that all the horses got their line in a $20,000 claiming race.
We can also see the running styles of each horse.
We can see the horse's running style designation we have made for each horse (RS) along with the Quirin Speed Points.
Along with that, we can see the field sizes the horses ran against, the odds they went off at, the speed rating, track variant, race class and, of course, the BLBL.
There is a lot of comparative information on this page.

So as not to keep you in suspense, the #7 horse won this race wire to wire and paid $37.20.

Since the #12 is simply unplayable, a 2 horse bettor had no problem with this race as the #7 went off at 17/1 and the #9 went off at 7/1.

You can't manufacture these kind of races, they come along when they come along. You just have to look for them.

For whatever it's worth, here are the rest of the screen shots.

[For The Lead]

This thread started out with the premise that horses in maiden races that show good early form are threats to win their race. This follows that premise.

#1 – Line 2. Last line was a route race on the turf. Today is a sprint on the dirt, so was line 2. Line 2 is a “+” race where the horse ran a good 2nd.
#1A – SCR
#2 - FTS
#3 – Line 2. Last line was a “MS” race. Today is a “MC”, so was line 2. Line 2 was a “+” race where the horse ran 3rd.
#4 – Line 2. We’ll pull out all the stops here. The last line was run on a “wf” track. Line 2 was on a “ft” track. Line 2 is a “+” race where the horse ran 2nd.
#5 - NO LINE. The horse has two lifetime races, both routes with one being on the turf.
#6 – Line 3. The horse has three lifetime races. The last line was a route. Lines 2 and 3 were “MC 40K” races. Again, pulling out all the stops, we’ll just forgive line two for being at a higher class level and give the horse line 3 where it showed early speed.
#7 – FTS
#8 – FTS
#9 – Line 2. The last line was a route race.

I’m only going to put screen shots up of horses that have started. No FTS.

[For The Lead]

This is the last horse to get posted.
The next post will show screen shots and the chart of the race, along with commentary.