FG 12/26 - race 4 - Merry Christmas Mike - Pace and Cap

Bill Lyster · 12-25-2009, 05:39 PM

Bottom or near bottom claimers, 6 furlongs, 13 horses and just maybe enuf to generate a good price.

First a look at the first 5 tandems. From first race consider top three and let others in with major excuses if you can find any (I didn't)

Next three screen shots are all the horses that have taken lead in any race.

The 7 won wire to wire last out, but ran the same adjusted speed rating in 2nd last, while pressing. Total pace ratings for the last two races are best of this field. I used line 1 for the pace of this race. Note the energy in its good lines 1-2-5 as calculated by the program is Presser, not Early.

The 1 attempted taking the lead 2 back but has had a layoff and looks to run more comfortably 5 or more positions from the lead making some kind of middle move. Best closing kick is about 80 and thats not good enuf to win from behind here.

The 5 came back from a layoff and turned in a horror show. Last out it took the lead, but it prominently fades whenever it takes the lead in other races. I used race 5, I think its too generous, and she lost by almost 10.

The next screen shot is all the lines I considered before hides. The 10 horse had early traffic problems in last race and looks to run late off that race. Normal style is more pressing, but two back shows not enuf energy to get usual position. Historically this horse has an LPR about 80 and that should not be enuf today. If you looked only at the 7f races for this horse you would think that based on the 6f time that this horse would be a contender. She has run 113 and 111.5 at the six furlong mark in two 7f races and never come near those times at the end of a six furlong race! I'm suspicious.

I will finish in the next post.

Bill Lyster · 12-25-2009, 05:43 PM

Sorry about that

Bill Lyster · 12-25-2009, 06:00 PM

Next, the TPR screen with all the lines.

The first thing to note is that the worst line of the 7 is more than two points better than any other. Major good sign.

Also, the 8, 10 and 2 are the only horses with better late LPR, but none can keep up early with the 7. All of the good races by the 8 came in 5 furlong races. The LPR in all races above 5 furlongs are substantially weaker than the race I used here.

I think that by default the 10 [ep] and 9 [p] fill out the other placements, a lot because the remaining contenders have E energy calculated by the program. The TPR screen shows poor 2nd halves for all but my top three 7-10 and 9

Bill Lyster · 12-25-2009, 06:11 PM

Note that the BL/BL screen shows big advantage for the 7 over all others.

Good luck tomorrow,

mikesal57 · 12-25-2009, 07:34 PM

Hey Bill...thxs for this and thinking about me...awwwww

looks like rain here on the east coast...so I'll be heading west young man....

but not too far wouldn't want to bump into you with the Hawaiian shirt and white shorts...plus i burn too fast

I'll get my head together by tomorrow...been eating and drinking a storm here and chasing Mrs Santa around the house

By then Justin should chime in and a few others too...

mike

mikesal57 · 12-25-2009, 07:35 PM

P.S- and a Merry Christmas too you...Ho Ho Ho

mikesal57 · 12-26-2009, 12:14 PM

I'm Back..

OK...with my very tough contender selections..I have 7-8-9-10

i think the 9 will take over by the half and cruise home..3rd off a layoff and raced against faster times in PP
#7 got an easy lead last out but may get pressure from the 10 this time

good luck

mike

mamojica · 12-26-2009, 01:49 PM

A belated Merry Christmas to everybody. Hope your holidays went well.

Races like these give me fits, and I usually pass.

I narrowed the race down to the 1, 1A, 9 and 11. The 1A has been scratched, but that doesn't help me select between the remaining contenders.

The 7 is the morning line favorite, and with good reason. He looks like the only horse who has run well recently. This adds to my uncertainty, and reinforces my decision to pass.

Regards,
Marc

mikesal57 · 12-26-2009, 01:55 PM

thxs marc for coming in...

yes I know what you mean about a decent recent race among any of these...I will bash Bill later on this...especially if i lose....

mike

justin13892002 · 12-26-2009, 04:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikesal57

thxs marc for coming in...

yes I know what you mean about a decent recent race among any of these...I will bash Bill later on this...especially if i lose....

mike

Mike,

Sorry I just got back in town, and missed the post. Hope you all had that NICE winner, 2.

12-25-2009, 05:39 PM	#1
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	FG 12/26 - race 4 - Merry Christmas Mike Bottom or near bottom claimers, 6 furlongs, 13 horses and just maybe enuf to generate a good price. First a look at the first 5 tandems. From first race consider top three and let others in with major excuses if you can find any (I didn't) Next three screen shots are all the horses that have taken lead in any race. The 7 won wire to wire last out, but ran the same adjusted speed rating in 2nd last, while pressing. Total pace ratings for the last two races are best of this field. I used line 1 for the pace of this race. Note the energy in its good lines 1-2-5 as calculated by the program is Presser, not Early. The 1 attempted taking the lead 2 back but has had a layoff and looks to run more comfortably 5 or more positions from the lead making some kind of middle move. Best closing kick is about 80 and thats not good enuf to win from behind here. The 5 came back from a layoff and turned in a horror show. Last out it took the lead, but it prominently fades whenever it takes the lead in other races. I used race 5, I think its too generous, and she lost by almost 10. The next screen shot is all the lines I considered before hides. The 10 horse had early traffic problems in last race and looks to run late off that race. Normal style is more pressing, but two back shows not enuf energy to get usual position. Historically this horse has an LPR about 80 and that should not be enuf today. If you looked only at the 7f races for this horse you would think that based on the 6f time that this horse would be a contender. She has run 113 and 111.5 at the six furlong mark in two 7f races and never come near those times at the end of a six furlong race! I'm suspicious. I will finish in the next post. Last edited by Bill Lyster; 12-25-2009 at 05:41 PM. Reason: needed more attachments

12-25-2009, 05:43 PM	#2
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	The missing screen shots Sorry about that Attached Images

12-25-2009, 06:00 PM	#3
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	More screen shots Next, the TPR screen with all the lines. The first thing to note is that the worst line of the 7 is more than two points better than any other. Major good sign. Also, the 8, 10 and 2 are the only horses with better late LPR, but none can keep up early with the 7. All of the good races by the 8 came in 5 furlong races. The LPR in all races above 5 furlongs are substantially weaker than the race I used here. I think that by default the 10 [ep] and 9 [p] fill out the other placements, a lot because the remaining contenders have E energy calculated by the program. The TPR screen shows poor 2nd halves for all but my top three 7-10 and 9 Attached Images

12-25-2009, 06:11 PM	#4
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	TPR screen with all horses before hides Note that the BL/BL screen shows big advantage for the 7 over all others. Good luck tomorrow, Attached Images

12-25-2009, 07:34 PM	#5
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	Hey Bill...thxs for this and thinking about me...awwwww looks like rain here on the east coast...so I'll be heading west young man.... but not too far wouldn't want to bump into you with the Hawaiian shirt and white shorts...plus i burn too fast I'll get my head together by tomorrow...been eating and drinking a storm here and chasing Mrs Santa around the house By then Justin should chime in and a few others too... mike __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

12-25-2009, 07:35 PM	#6
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	P.S- and a Merry Christmas too you...Ho Ho Ho __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

12-26-2009, 12:14 PM	#7
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	I'm Back.. OK...with my very tough contender selections..I have 7-8-9-10 i think the 9 will take over by the half and cruise home..3rd off a layoff and raced against faster times in PP #7 got an easy lead last out but may get pressure from the 10 this time good luck mike __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

12-26-2009, 01:49 PM	#8
mamojica MC 4000 Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Bronx NY Posts: 31	A belated Merry Christmas to everybody. Hope your holidays went well. Races like these give me fits, and I usually pass. I narrowed the race down to the 1, 1A, 9 and 11. The 1A has been scratched, but that doesn't help me select between the remaining contenders. The 7 is the morning line favorite, and with good reason. He looks like the only horse who has run well recently. This adds to my uncertainty, and reinforces my decision to pass. Regards, Marc

12-26-2009, 01:55 PM	#9
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	thxs marc for coming in... yes I know what you mean about a decent recent race among any of these...I will bash Bill later on this...especially if i lose.... mike __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

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