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Old 02-28-2014, 09:27 PM   #1
Capcondo
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Tampa Race #6 for Saturday

Here's a field of 10 for non winners in a year which looks like it has some reliable speed at 6.5F.

Let's see what happens.

Tam 030114 Race #6.pdf

Tim
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Old 02-28-2014, 09:28 PM   #2
Capcondo
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Old 03-01-2014, 12:02 AM   #3
Bill Lyster
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I used the pace of the last race as todays pace from the 7. A pretty good fighter that should take out the 1-9-10 other earlies, If the 7 weakens I like the 3 at a price because he made up ground in a faster pace back a ways it its history. the 6 would be my second closer in a failing pace scenario, assuming that could happen tomorrow.

good luck to all,
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Old 03-01-2014, 08:28 AM   #4
Capcondo
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Initially, I thought the 7 and 10 were going to do each other in. I've changed my mind. The 10 is not fighting like he was 3 or 4 back. The 7 on the other hand since shipping from AQU has improved both race fighting for the lead in the last race. Had a solid 12 2/5 from the half to the stretch call. I think he'll go wire to wire.

The 7 is my choice.

As a side note, I haven't been doing well lately. When looking at some of the races I've missed, I see that I've dismissed early horses when I shouldn't have. This might be that kind of race.

Tim
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Old 03-01-2014, 09:56 AM   #5
Bill Lyster
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Yeah Tim I also thought that the 10 might be a problem early because he showed some pressing ability in line 3, but it looked like you or I could have pressed that slow race, so I classed him totally early off his body of work and out he went. Still see the 3 as best closer. He advances at more calls and makes up more lengths than any other horse in the field. I like 7-3 box.
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Old 03-01-2014, 10:45 AM   #6
Pat C.
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I see the #7 getting the lead in the 46.2 neighborhood with the #10 pressing. The #5 has been running against faster paces and should run his comfortable third and will have more than enough left in the tank to pass both #7 & #10. The #6 should come running late to get in the money. Depending on the odds, my wager will be the 5 with the 6 or 10.

Good Luck to all. Pat C.
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Old 03-01-2014, 11:46 AM   #7
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Good morning guys. I see the 7 as the dominant early too. I love the 1C fighting last time and still carrying that lead further than its previous race.

As an aside Tim, I think that (calling a race OTE and then having one of the early group win) is one of the more common mistakes to make with matching, especially raw matching. At least I know it is for me. I have thought about keeping records by track, dist and surface regarding my E/OTE call and which group the actual winner came from. Perhaps even ranking them within each group (#1 E #2 E, #1 OTE etc.) Sort of modeling myself and the track to see if any patterns emerge that can be helpful in the future.

Best of luck today...
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Old 03-01-2014, 01:50 PM   #8
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Good afternoon everyone! Looking at this race I see that the 7 looks like the dominant early, however, he faced the 10 in the 2nd race back and couldn't get the lead. Also, in this race they are running a longer distance. Because of this, I changed my mind and decided it would be run OTE. Both the 3 and the 5 look like they can handle the best early pace, but I am having a hard time separating so I will pick them both to win.
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Old 03-01-2014, 08:13 PM   #9
Capcondo
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Results Tampa #6

This obviously was a tough race. The pace did materialize with the 1,7,and 10 up front.

Name:  ScreenHunter_244 Mar. 01 18.12.jpg
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Old 03-01-2014, 08:16 PM   #10
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I picked 7 s well as the numbers spoke for themselves. I thought it would wire.

I'd like to discuss and disect the race to perhaps see if there is something that I missed. Is there something I should have seen? Is there anything in the 8 horse that showed its potential?

Perhaps this is one where you just can't predict the future or perhaps a race that should have been passed.

Looking forward to hearing from all regarding the race.
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