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Old 07-25-2015, 11:32 AM   #11
The Pook
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Saturday DMR #7

Down to the 1,5,9,14. The 14 is the pacesetter in 23 or so. Could wire but I think is too slow overall with slow final fractions and final times so will go OTE. The 14 is also OTE which is a concern but I will still throw out. For me the 5 and 9 are better positioned for the win.

The only way I could think to deal with the NZ and European horses was with their best competitive final time of 137.1 which looks to be not good enough.

5,9
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Old 07-25-2015, 01:06 PM   #12
PeteC
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Del Mar

#3 is the early horse in this race and I used line 2 for today’s pace since there are no other earlies to fight with it like last time (47.4 112.3). Right away I have a good feeling about this horse given the lone E status and the fighting last time but let’s go through the field…

#1 (Sus) Line 3 was against a similar pace and it closed from the back to be a close second (8-7-6-2)
#4 Foreign horse who looks like it runs sustained
#5 (Pre) Comes in from Indiana but in line 9 it raced at Santa Anita against a solid pace but didn’t make much of an impact. (6-7-6-4)
#6 (P/S) Has won twice against today’s pace or faster (lines 2 and 7).
#7 (P/S) Finished close against a 48 pace in line 6.
#8 Another mystery foreign horse, looks more like a presser.
#9 (Sus) Has won or finished very close multiple times against faster paces.
#10 (Sus) Won against a faster pace in line 3 from way back.
#11 (Pre) Won against today’s pace or faster in lines 4, 6 and 7.
#12 (Sus) Won good turf route against a very fast pace from way out of it (line 7).

There are a number of contenders that are capable of winning this race but I like the 3 given the lone early set-up and the fast fighting last time….
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Old 07-25-2015, 01:07 PM   #13
PeteC
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Prairie Meadows

#1 is the early in this race and I used the POR from its last line (22.1 45.2)….Let’s see how it stacks up against the rest of the field.

#2 (Pre) Sharp horse. Faced today’s pace in line 2 where it moved 4-3-2-1.
#3 (Pre) Last two sprints were sharp. Faced today’s pace or even a tad faster in both of those and ran very well.
#4 Never faced today’s pace
#5 (Sus) Won against today’s pace in line two coming from waaaay out of it 6-6-5-1
#6 (Sus) Has won twice against a similar pace or faster (lines 3,7). Its moves have been 5-3-1-1 and 5-5-4-1.
#7 Nothing to speak of against today’s pace.

I feel the race will go OTE, meaning the 1 will not win. I notice the stretch call times for the horse (58 and change) in it’s good races. I then see the 3 sitting just off of that on and see how it moves to the lead in 57.3’s in lines 2 and 3. I don’t think that 1 can hold off the 3. The 2 should be a little behind the 3 and the sustained will be too far back to close ground on the 3. I like the 3 to win.
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Old 07-25-2015, 01:32 PM   #14
delmarscott2004
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Quote:
Originally Posted by delmarscott2004 View Post
DelMar 07.26.15...........2nd. race

2--10--11

Scott
Reworking the 7th as suggested as soon as I return home

Thanks Pook
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Old 07-25-2015, 01:38 PM   #15
Capcondo
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Prairie Meadows:

Thanks for putting this race up Pete. I look at PM with some regularity.

The 1 looks like the lead horse. He's run 22.1. I'll project the 1st 2 fractions as his last race; 22.1 45.2
The 3 ran a bad route last out. The 2 sprints before that were against very fast fractions. He likes to sit 3rd but could move up to second based on the 22.0 he ran against the second and third race back. He might make the 1 quit and get the lead.

The 4 and the 6 will be coming at the end. The 4 is a particularly scary horse late.

The 7 and 2 aren't fast enough.

Before I talk myself off the 3, I am going to make him my choice.

The 3 is my choice to win the race.

Tim
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Old 07-25-2015, 01:42 PM   #16
Ted Craven
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Prm 6

Earlies: 1-2-3*-7 Probable Pace is #1 last = 22.2 45.5 58 (#3 can also close from 3rd)
OTE: 3-4-5-6

Too much early pressure for #1 to hold, plus #3 and #4 'see' (match) his 2nd call times and 'raise' (outrun ) him at the Stretch (sub 58).

#3 can't get respect from the betting public, and spent most of its time running and losing (once beating) 3K and 4K claimers,which is how it got into the last 2 Starter allowance races. Not today, versus this crowd.

Race runs OTE. #2 must be getting dazed and confused as to which barn he lives in, having been claimed 5 times this year. Plus his competition is in general, inferior to the #4 and #6.

Thus: #4 and #6 are my picks. (Plus, the BL/BL says so ...)


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Old 07-25-2015, 01:52 PM   #17
PeteC
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Scratches

At Del Mar, #2 is a late scratch....
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Old 07-25-2015, 03:16 PM   #18
Capcondo
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Del Mar:

Given how I'm doing in the contest, I'm going to pass a race with two foreign horses who were worked until they bled and are first time lasix.

GL

Tim
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Old 07-25-2015, 03:20 PM   #19
gandalf380
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prm race 6

using #1 last time as probable pace of the race. Looks to me that there are three speed horses. The #1 looks like the best of the speed but he should be softened up by a pace duel. #4 looks like a strong closer. #2 can sit just off the pace and get first jump on the #4. He also has won previously after sitting 4th early.

Win: #2 Celtic Drama
#4 Happy Toes
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Old 07-25-2015, 04:30 PM   #20
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Pm6
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