Matchup Challenge Mar 28/29 by Seven Furlongs

[cigar]

I am back to cold north. Mo may the force continue to be with you. What a weekend.

[mowens33]

Cigar thanks, hopefully I can keep it going!

[PeteC]

The 2 is the early horse, but not fast enough, and will get inhaled by one of several E/P or P types. I will use the 47.4 111.3 tandem as today's pace. The horses that have run the best against that pace are the 7 and 9. For the contest I will take the 7 to hold off the 9. My pick is the 7.

[DontSayDont]

I am not posting as wanting to enter into your contest but as a way to see if I am learning anything about the match up.

I have the POR to be 48.0, 72.0 with a final time of about 109.8. Guess the race will go OTE.

Horses and run styles.
1. S but may be closer. Trainer worked this horse from the gate and put in padding to help the horse get over its phobia of being in there. Looks like it may have worked, judging by the latest work.
2. EP or E. First race as a gelding so it could change running style.
3. S or EP. Hard to figure as it hasn't had a dirt race.
4. P I think he'll be laying 3rd or 4th early helping to force the #9 to go wide into the first turn.
5. E Looks to want to lead or press early but didn't keep up with the #7 in its last race.
6. E Think his dirt race from 8/14 at GP is best indicator of how he might run today.
7. EP With speed to his inside, he'll tuck in and try to save a bit of ground on the first turn but still help force the #9 to go wide.
8. NF Looks like a late running sprinter (off track only) with no route speed.
9. Even though he's won from the 7 & 8 posts, I think he'll be disadvantaged today from the 9 hole. If there's a race to beat him in, I think this may be the one.

I am hoping the padded gate gets the #1 into the race a bit sooner but not to wanting to go to the lead. I would bet this race, #1 to win.

[The Pook]

DontSayDont,

Oh come on play along....it doesn't cost anything(not yet anyway) and the more the merrier. Your evaluation is of excellent quality. We learn from everybody. I think you kind of want to be included, so if you enter this thread with all the requirements (which you have including your choice or choices at the bottom) I am going to consider you entered.

Pook

[DontSayDont]

Sorry. In my above post I got 2 horses and their gate problems incorrect. Ami's Flatter was not the horse I was thinking of. The gate problems and hopeful correction were for War Story who is running in LA Derby later today at Fair Grounds. He did have an improved 5f work on Mar.18.

I had him picked in his last race and will probably back him again today.

It doesn't change my liking Ami's Flatter in todays Fla.Derby.

Ray

[Capcondo]

After looking at the past performances in the drf link (thanks 7f), the thing that really stuck out was how slow the Fountain of Youth race was. These 1st saturday in May horses ran 1:46+ for 1 1/16 miles on a fast track which is 5 2/5 seconds off the three year best. Then I clicked on the date for one of the horses in the FOY to read the chart. There was so much trouble and the race was so slow, I decided I couldn't use the race. I'm evaluating all horses off races other than the FOY.

The 2 looks like he'll get the lead but won't last the 1 1/8 miles. I'll put the pace somewhere around 23.4 for the first quarter. Here are the others:

1: Late running horse. In for now.
3: Slow. OUT.
4: Handled a fast pace 2 back at a flat mile. Contender.
5: Beaten badly in the tandem last out. Other races are slow. OUT.
6: Race 2 back shows this horse is slow. Will keep pace honest. OUT.
7: Likes to sit 2nd which could be a problem. Pace will be faster today. Contender.
8: OUT
9: Can power move and run against fast paces from middle positions. Contender.

Conclusion:

I think the 1 will be too far back. The 7 will face a faster pace than last time. This leaves me with the 4 and 9. I know I said I wasn't going to use the FOY. But, the 9 was ahead of the 4 in that race before the trouble started. The 9 has also run against much faster paces than these others.

The 9 is my choice to win the race.

GL

Tim

[The Pook]

Gulfstream Saturday March 28 Race 14

Comparing (2 turn) to (1 turn) route fractions was a little intimidating so I ended up basically doing the matchup from (1 turn) routes. That left for me, 2 contenders (#1 and #4) of which I prefer the #4. I matched this three times from scratch and ended in the same place (#1 and #4). It looks like the early money is on the #7 and #9 heavily. The chalkers may be right but one sees what ones sees and my minds eye sees this.

[The Pook]

Congrats to Bill and Pete! Pete cold cocked it even. Good matchin boys and.......wait...wait there's somethin in my eyes...my vision is a little blurry...hold..hold on.....it's chalk...CHALK!...my minds eye is full of chalk...no wonder...oh well.

Pook

[PeteC]

Originally Posted by The Pook

Congrats to Bill and Pete! Pete cold cocked it even. Good matchin boys and.......wait...wait there's somethin in my eyes...my vision is a little blurry...hold..hold on.....it's chalk...CHALK!...my minds eye is full of chalk...no wonder...oh well.

Pook

Lol Pook, I'm glad you're not posting my average mutuel for this contest

Anyway, on to Sunday. The 4 and 9 are my earlies and don't think they will last. From the ote's the 3 and 7 are closest to the pace. Matching their last lines against each other I prefer the 3.....