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03-21-2015, 11:37 AM | #11 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Tempe, Arizona
Posts: 600
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My race above is for the 4th at Santa Anita on Saturday. Sorry about that.
Tim |
03-21-2015, 11:54 AM | #12 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,295
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SA race 4
Think i will just use the tandem race of Dec 27 and win bet the 2 and 7
Bob |
03-21-2015, 11:59 AM | #13 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 611
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Sa 4th
I also feel this race will run OTE with the early sprinters not being able to sustain their pace over the distance. I used the 47.2 112.0 last race tandem for today's projected pace.
1: This sprinter is a contender. He won from the clouds last time against an insanely fast (even for this downhill course) pace. The 2,4 and 7 have also run well against today's pace or faster too. The 8 is also a contender for me running well against today's pace on the tapeta at GG. The 7 had a nice 2nd against the fastest pace albeit not a close second. I notice then that the 8 was only a neck behind the 7 in a stake at GG. I will take the 7 and 8 to win. |
03-21-2015, 12:01 PM | #14 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,295
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Sunland Race 7
Again i will go with the tandem race of Dec 6 and bet the 4 and 8 to win.
Bob |
03-21-2015, 12:07 PM | #15 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Quote:
couple of years ago I went back through the PPs and used horses that had been successful on the SA turf course and the main track. Although this study included only those successful on both surfaces and the fact that I could probably find only about 50 horses, the average time differential between the turf course and the dirt course was about 3.74 seconds. So a horse that ran 113.00 down the hill, might be expected to run 116.74 on the dirt course. If you choose to use that adjustment you then need to add 2 fifths for sprint to route and the 6.4 seconds per half furlong for the adjustment from the 6.5 distance to todays route distance. Admittedly, this might be too many adjustments for most, assuming you did it for all the horses in the field. Better to line up all the down the hillers and match up the best one, then look at the tandems from GGF and then the rest of the field at a mile on turf. Note that there are some horses who have only won their maiden race coming into this stake, never a great bet, but for these you could match up their mile turf races and use the best one in the final analysis. You might end up with one sprinter, one GGF horse, the best maiden and the best SA turf miler to match up. I am a little pressed for time today and cannot post any further. Indian Wells tennis is calling me for an all day attendance event. Good luck to you all. Bill |
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03-21-2015, 12:10 PM | #16 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,535
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Quote:
Pook |
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03-21-2015, 12:25 PM | #17 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 115
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Forgot to add, my post earlier in the thread was for the Santa Anita race.
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03-21-2015, 12:38 PM | #18 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Okay, I took the time required:
#1 is the best of the down the hillers, closing 8-8-6-1,beating the 3 who looks to go early with the 9. 2 and 4 are best turf milers. I look to the 2 to reverse the tandem from last out as it was first race as 3 yo and a layoff. The 7 beat the two in a tandem a while back but i think the 2 runs closer to the lead. the tandem running positions for the 2 were 5-3-2-3 and for the 7 were 8-5-3-2. Tough choice between the 2 and 7 for me. For me, the 2 at short odds, over the 7. Bill |
03-21-2015, 01:38 PM | #19 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: CAMBRIDGE,MA
Posts: 1,035
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My picks 2 and 4
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03-21-2015, 02:25 PM | #20 |
3-3-1 - 3-3-2
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 394
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Sa r4
sorry guys, no workup today my pick is 7 and 1
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