2016 Maiden Info from Del Mar - Pace and Cap

Bill Lyster · 07-23-2017, 10:35 AM

2016 Del Mar maiden info:

There were 93 maiden races with FTS (first time starters) and FTS won 34 of them, but FTS only won when running 5.0/5.5/6.0/6.5 on the dirt and 8.0 on the turf.

Total 2YO MCl - 2YO MSW - 3YO MCl - 3YO MSW

5.0 - 2/7 1/3 1/2 0/1 0/1
5.5 - 18/33 6/14 10/12 1/5 1/2
6.0 - 8/23 1/4 5/8 1/6 1/5
6.5 - 2/4 0/0 1/3 0/0 1/4
7.0 - 0/3 0/0 0/0 0/3 0/0
8.0 - 0/2 0/0 0/2 0/0 0/0
5.0T – 0/1 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/1
8.0T – 4/15 0/0 4/8 0/0 0/7
8.5T – 0/2 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/2

Obviously, the Delmar meet is a development meet for young horses, so this info might be specific to this time of year and perhaps on into the fall, at least until the good FTS maidens win their first races.

Workout factors:
The FPD, SRW, 5f/6f info appears close to the same for the 34 FTS winners and all other of the 89 maiden winners.

Of the 34 maiden FTS winners, 73.5% had an SW workout; 35.3% had a GW workout; 52.9% had an HWL workout; 47.1% had a SAR workout and 67% had an SWG workout.

The other 89 maiden race winners, 48.9% had SW; 2.3% had a GW; 23.3% had an HWL; 14.5% had a SAR and 39% had an SWG workout designation.

So you can see that successful FTS runners are ones that check most of the SW/GW/HWL/SAR/SWG boxes

So most of the first time winners are in shorter races, with fewer first starts as the distances increase or change surface.

Good luck this year at Del Mar.

Bill Lyster · 07-23-2017, 10:40 AM

sorry for the lack of spacing in the above.

The FTS data is shown by distance, first the totals, then by maiden claiming 2 YO, MSW 2 YO, then the same for 3 YO and older.

For example, at 5.5 furlongs there were 33 races and in these race 18 were won by FTS, 6 of 14 won by 2 yo MCL; 10 of 12 by MSW; 1 of 5 by 3yo MCL and 1 of 2 by 3YO MSW types

5.5 - 18/33 6/14 10/12 1/5 1/2

Mitch44 · 07-23-2017, 11:23 AM

Very insightful Bill. Its true that younger horses are speed crazy and lack stamina. They develop stamina as they mature and carry their speed further. It makes perfect sense to run them in shorter races as maidens.

If a route race the trainer needs to have proven ability with the distance, surface and with maidens.

Stats can be very misleading such as 18 wins of 33 for 54.54% Fact is there are multiple FTS in many of those races. This can be offset by demanding other criteria such as a minimum acceptable odds vs. the risk and other factors.

Good stuff,
Mitch44

Bill Lyster · 07-23-2017, 08:39 PM

All true, but don't forget the comparison of FTS winners and maiden race winners that are not FTS.

Yes, there are many maiden races with several FTS horses, so the SW workout; the GW workout; the HWL workout; the SAR workout and the SWG workout %ages can be used to narrow the field, a bit.

Originally, looked at these stats for inclusion in 3 and 4 race horizontal wagers, because as you can see from the last couple days, they seem to run, mdn, non-mdn, mdn, non maiden alot,alternating maiden races with winners. If you play horizontally, you might be able to use this info.

07-23-2017, 10:35 AM	#1
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	2016 Maiden Info from Del Mar 2016 Del Mar maiden info: There were 93 maiden races with FTS (first time starters) and FTS won 34 of them, but FTS only won when running 5.0/5.5/6.0/6.5 on the dirt and 8.0 on the turf. Total 2YO MCl - 2YO MSW - 3YO MCl - 3YO MSW 5.0 - 2/7 1/3 1/2 0/1 0/1 5.5 - 18/33 6/14 10/12 1/5 1/2 6.0 - 8/23 1/4 5/8 1/6 1/5 6.5 - 2/4 0/0 1/3 0/0 1/4 7.0 - 0/3 0/0 0/0 0/3 0/0 8.0 - 0/2 0/0 0/2 0/0 0/0 5.0T – 0/1 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/1 8.0T – 4/15 0/0 4/8 0/0 0/7 8.5T – 0/2 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/2 Obviously, the Delmar meet is a development meet for young horses, so this info might be specific to this time of year and perhaps on into the fall, at least until the good FTS maidens win their first races. Workout factors: The FPD, SRW, 5f/6f info appears close to the same for the 34 FTS winners and all other of the 89 maiden winners. Of the 34 maiden FTS winners, 73.5% had an SW workout; 35.3% had a GW workout; 52.9% had an HWL workout; 47.1% had a SAR workout and 67% had an SWG workout. The other 89 maiden race winners, 48.9% had SW; 2.3% had a GW; 23.3% had an HWL; 14.5% had a SAR and 39% had an SWG workout designation. So you can see that successful FTS runners are ones that check most of the SW/GW/HWL/SAR/SWG boxes So most of the first time winners are in shorter races, with fewer first starts as the distances increase or change surface. Good luck this year at Del Mar.

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07-23-2017, 10:40 AM	#2
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	sorry for the lack of spacing in the above. The FTS data is shown by distance, first the totals, then by maiden claiming 2 YO, MSW 2 YO, then the same for 3 YO and older. For example, at 5.5 furlongs there were 33 races and in these race 18 were won by FTS, 6 of 14 won by 2 yo MCL; 10 of 12 by MSW; 1 of 5 by 3yo MCL and 1 of 2 by 3YO MSW types 5.5 - 18/33 6/14 10/12 1/5 1/2

07-23-2017, 11:23 AM	#3
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,705	Very insightful Bill. Its true that younger horses are speed crazy and lack stamina. They develop stamina as they mature and carry their speed further. It makes perfect sense to run them in shorter races as maidens. If a route race the trainer needs to have proven ability with the distance, surface and with maidens. Stats can be very misleading such as 18 wins of 33 for 54.54% Fact is there are multiple FTS in many of those races. This can be offset by demanding other criteria such as a minimum acceptable odds vs. the risk and other factors. Good stuff, Mitch44

07-23-2017, 08:39 PM	#4
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	All true, but don't forget the comparison of FTS winners and maiden race winners that are not FTS. Yes, there are many maiden races with several FTS horses, so the SW workout; the GW workout; the HWL workout; the SAR workout and the SWG workout %ages can be used to narrow the field, a bit. Originally, looked at these stats for inclusion in 3 and 4 race horizontal wagers, because as you can see from the last couple days, they seem to run, mdn, non-mdn, mdn, non maiden alot,alternating maiden races with winners. If you play horizontally, you might be able to use this info.