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RDSS Racing Decision Support System – The Modern Sartin Methodology |
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10-04-2011, 08:41 PM | #11 |
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
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Dave,
Yes, I get the same BLBL scores as you after eliminating the 2 favourites. It occurred to me to mention, in cases like this, that you may indeed choose to go ahead with eliminating not just 1 but 2 favourites but be prepared to lose a fair number of these. Only after doing this for a while, and with real money so you get the emotional feedback, can you decide if your psyche can withstand it and of course if it hits often enough to be profitable. Mitigating strategies might be: betting to Place as well with odds like on the #3 and doing an Exacta box with the eliminated favourite(s) and your 2 long-odds Win contenders. Good luck as you move forward! Ted
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10-04-2011, 09:41 PM | #12 |
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Location: NYC and San Diego
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Good work, Dave. This definitely didn't qualify as a prime bet but certainly deserved some bankroll @ 34-1. Not only did he show improved form to the 2nd call in that last race but the speed rating was virtually the same as his winning maiden race, except a few RC levels higher. Now, I don't use RDSS and it's hard to have a picture without the rest of the contention, but these conditioned claiming races are usually not very formful.
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10-05-2011, 02:10 AM | #13 |
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Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: England
Posts: 489
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Thanks both,
Ted, you raise a very good point I think and a more conservative approach ought to be the order of the day. Emotional stability is key. |
10-05-2011, 08:09 PM | #14 |
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,149
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Dave,
Nice job of putting that horse into your contenders.Looking at it strictly from a racing form point of view the hose had 4 races off a layoff and definitely was showing signs of improvement. I dont use RDSS as I dont feel confident enough in my analysis of the readouts but am definitely encouraged by what you are doing.Just keep posting like you have been and dont let others deter you from doing so. |
10-06-2011, 02:16 AM | #15 |
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Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: England
Posts: 489
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Thanks Shoeless,
With regard to RDSS I can only speak as I find. I've used it three times now, once at Woodbine & twice at Delaware & on all three occasions I've made money. One area that I am having to start thinking about is the highly rated short price favourite. As noted earlier I threw out two and had a terrific score, but this is obviously going to the the exception rather than the rule. I threw out one last night that won. It was clearly the best horse and beat one of my choices into second. There is presumably a cut off point where either the exacta or passing the race is the only realistic way forward. I was tempted to ask Ted for a touch of guidance on where I ought to draw the line in terms of throwing out a horse or passing a race depending on the level of it's superiority. I suspect the correct answer though is to analyse my own records based on my own paceline selections. One thing that has become apparent though, after starting to use RDSS, when I now re-read the Follow Up things make a lot more sense & I am having a lot more "oh yes" moments. |
10-06-2011, 11:00 PM | #16 | |
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Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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Quote:
In case you didn't see this in another thread, Bill V. recently posted this. From The Howard Sartin manual The Dynamics of Incremental Velocity Page 16-17 Pacelines "Appropriate Pace Line selection is essential to success in utilizing the Dynamics of Incremental Velocity. I say appropriate rather than right or wrong because they are morality terms. Appropriate means a line that represents a contender's true ability and running style when IN FORM. It should be a line where it ran competitively against the kind of horses it will face today. Since this work is an overview of the subject at hand, we will not go into detail in the manner of paceline selection. I will, however,offer some guide lines 1. Avoid using a horse's BEST line unless it was RECENT ( within 40 days) 2. Avoid using lines from Maiden Wins unless todays race is carded for Non-Winners of one except maiden or claiming 3. Never use a truly BAD paceline. You're totally defeating the purpose of handicapping which is to select winners 4. DO NOT USE TROUBLE LINES 5. Let a horses AVERAGE PURSE VALUE and or Class Factor determine how far back you go for a line. 6. The concept of last race recency of a line is exaggerated Looking at a sequence of 1000 races that we actually won, our average pace line used was 2.35 This simply means the average was closest to the 2nd race back, but often it was the 3rd race back. The last race was used 42% of the time. Learning to select the proper paceline is an art that comes only with practice. Doing it over and over is by far the best means of mastering the procedure" There is no reason to struggle with pace line selection when there are several places in the library that explain this procedure. I think if you use the pace line procedures shown in the library, such as the one above, it will get you started in the right direction. Good Luck to you.
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
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10-07-2011, 04:29 PM | #17 |
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Posts: 4,149
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Dave,
Doc's guidelines are very good but there is no right or wrong way in picking them just your feeling how you want to do it. As the guys here that know me will tell you I'm very good at being able to pick the correct paceline.But once I get that far I'm very bad on how to look at the readouts from any software and get the winner.So even though if your able to pick lines well it's only 1\2 of the battle. |
10-08-2011, 02:47 PM | #18 |
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Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: England
Posts: 489
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Thanks For The Lead & Shoeless,
The volume of reading material does seem a little daunting at first, but it's interesting to see how some themes run throughout the volume of work in what I guess was a way of reinforcing the key issues/ideas. I've listened to the propaceline tapes a good few times now. It's easy to leave them playing while you are doing something else/driving etc & I'm working on the assumption that constant repetition will get the issues into my head. It is funny listening to some of the USA accents. Obviously my exposure to US accents is on film/tv etc & you kind of build an image of the people as you listen! |
02-06-2012, 03:33 PM | #19 |
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: NYC and San Diego
Posts: 627
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Curious to see how you are doing 4 months later, Dave?
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02-07-2012, 11:11 AM | #20 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: England
Posts: 489
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4 Months???
Doesn't time fly!
I've encountered the same issue as many do & it's that old favourite of paceline selection! (I love how the spell check automatically underlines favourite as being incorrect!) I had some outstanding results and some real shockers too. This was really all down to my fundamental lack of knowledge when selecting the lines & I think sometimes I might have hit the odd good one by pure luck. As time passed it began to dawn on me that there was obviously something missing from my approach and I ended up looking into the issue of the Match Up, as you may have noticed from my posts in that area of the Forum. Still learning etc, but what I'm doing at the moment is projecting pace and using that as the basis of paceline selection. Then taking the top rated BL/BL if over 5/2 with the highest overlay of the next two etc etc. This approach seems to be working & as I use betfair I can often get 5/2 about a horse that is lower on the mutuels. It does limit me with track selection a little however. I'm here for the long haul though, that's for sure! |
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