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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
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10-15-2013, 04:47 AM | #61 |
Grade 1
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Screen Shots
Notice how much faster the first call time is for the #9 horse.
For those looking at the first call time for the #3 horse as being just about as fast as the time for the #9 horse, keep in mind that the #3 was almost 10 lengths BEHIND that time, while the #9 horse was ON THE LEAD. I don't usually post the ENERGY screen, but I thought it would be a good idea here. Notice the the #9 horse is second on TOTAL ENERGY by just ".1" So in spite of the fact that the #9 horse backed up 12 lengths in the stretch, it is, for all intents and purposes, in a TIE for the #1 spot on TOTAL ENERGY. The TPR screen, again, shows the TOTAL ENERGY reads, but take a good look at the EPR. The #9 horse has a 4 point advantage over the next closest horse. So does this mean the #9 horse will come out of the gate, run as fast as it can and open a 10 length lead only to collapse in the stretch? NO! What it means is, the #9 horse can come out of the gate and WITHOUT running as fast as it can, establish a clear early lead to the second call, saving energy for later in the race. I think the segment screen speaks for itself. The #9 horse has the "0.0" all the way across, in spite of what you see in the TS+F3 panel. Here is the chart of the race. Using the same straight forward approach to contender and line selection, horses like these will win for you. That is not to say they will win every race you play (neither will any other type of play), but at these prices they don't need to. AND, you don't need to search for ML 20/1 or higher horses in order to get these kind of prices. This horse had a ML of 10/1. If you haven't read through this thread yet, perhaps now is a good time.
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10-15-2013, 10:19 AM | #62 |
Grade 1
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Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
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Once again FTL, a great example. I like how you did not just pay attention to the last race. Good logic from which to learn.
Regards, |
10-15-2013, 10:50 AM | #63 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Last line
Line 1 is what messed me up in this race.
I made the mistake of thinking the route race was a negative and although I had the 9 as a contender for "why not maidens" I passed the race. FTL can you comment on the last line and how it helps horse 9 ? Thanks Bill |
10-15-2013, 11:49 AM | #64 |
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Location: New-York, NY
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Nice thread. Bill, I think that, the last line being a route, helped the horse build some stamina to go the distance without fading like she did in her previous races. You noticed that she used to fade in the stretch before that route race.
Have a nice day! |
10-15-2013, 02:33 PM | #65 | |
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Quote:
I really didn't have any choice in this race. None of the horses had a last line that qualified. Not only that, but their last lines offered a valid excuse to go back a line. In each case, however, the horses all had a race in the last 90 days and the line used was also within the last 90 days. It was an odd kind of race in that respect, but that is why we have guidelines. Trust me, if all the lines used had been the last line, I would have been on the last line!
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10-15-2013, 03:01 PM | #66 | |
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Quote:
"Polombi" hit the nail on the head. There are many traininhg tactics that are used for various reasons, this is one of them. When you have a horse that shows consistent early speed and fades through the stretch in sprint races, it "appears" the horse doesn't have enough stamina. So the concept is to run the horse in a route race in order to build the horse's stamina. It isn't necessary, in that route race, to send the horse out to the front as fast as it can go. In fact, that would defeat the purpose, since the idea is to allow the horse to run further, building up its' wind and stamina. Obviously, since this horse was coming off a sprint race where it ran the first quarter of a mile in 21.9 seconds while being on the lead, it was quite capable of being on the lead in the route race where the first quarter of a mile was in 24.0 seconds, but the intention was not to send the horse out for a fast early lead. Keep in mind that not every horse in every race is in that race to try and win it. The route race in the winners last race is considered a "conditioning race". The horse wasn't entered to win the race, but rather, for conditioning purposes.
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
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10-15-2013, 03:46 PM | #67 |
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FTL
Thanks for the explanation and clarification. |
10-15-2013, 04:03 PM | #68 | |
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Quote:
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Terry |
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10-15-2013, 04:24 PM | #69 |
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I hadn't notice this thread before so please excuse the late posts.
FTL, in this post you picked the 4 but in reading over your rules it would appear that 5 fit the rules better. I'm not understanding what led you to the 4 horse (perhaps with the exception of the 5 going up in class). Thanks.
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Terry |
10-15-2013, 05:52 PM | #70 | |
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Quote:
Look at the "RS". The #5 horse is a "P3". The #4 horse is an "E8". The #4 horse is obviously considerably "earlier" than the #5 horse. On the segments screen the #4 horse has no less than a 3.7 advantage over the next closest horse at the F1 call. And as you pointed out, the #4 has a considerable edge in class, $25k for the #4 vs $16k for the #5. As I said in the post above, if you look at these readouts and assume the early horse will fade, again, as it did in the line chosen, that would be the wrong assumption. All an early horse needs is an easy F1 lead, which will enable it to make the lead using less energy and conserving that saved energy for later in the race.
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
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