couple of velocity questions

[tizlinda]

1. What do the F1;F2;F3;F4;SC represent?

2. What does the POR velocity numbers represent and/or how are they created?

Feel free to direct me to these answers if they have been explained...I have searched for them.

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by tizlinda

1. What do the F1;F2;F3;F4;SC represent?

2. What does the POR velocity numbers represent and/or how are they created?

Feel free to direct me to these answers if they have been explained...I have searched for them.

F1 = First fraction velocity
F2 = Second fraction velocity
F3 = Third fraction velocity
SC = Second call velocity (F1+F2 velocities)

POR velocities = The same breakdown of velocities mentioned above but this time it is based on the "Pace of Race" or the lead horse in the race at each of those calls (F1, F2, F3, SC)

POH = or "Pace of horse" velocities are based on the actual velocity of the individual horse being analyzed at the various calls (F1, F2, F3, SC)

I hope this helps "Tiz"

[tizlinda]

Thanks for the reply, but still a bit unclear on POR...

in checking on a couple of examples I noticed the POH and POR velocity numbers were different in the first 3 fractions from the paceline of a horse that led for the first 3 fractions but didn't win. Why would that be? st POR the velocity of the winning horse of that race, rather than the leader at each call?

How do you use the POR to handicap and are corollaries based on POR effective since it doesn't seem it like it has anything to do with the horse in question unless that horse lead wire to wire.

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by tizlinda

Thanks for the reply, but still a bit unclear on POR...

in checking on a couple of examples I noticed the POH and POR velocity numbers were different in the first 3 fractions from the pace line of a horse that led for the first 3 fractions but didn't win. Why would that be?

Morning "Tiz"

ok the 3 races where the horse led at the first 2 calls are lines 1,5 and 7. If you check the POR and POH velocities for F1, F2 and SC (2nd call) you will see they all match up exactly.

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by tizlinda

Thanks for the reply, but still a bit unclear on POR...

How do you use the POR to handicap and are corollaries based on POR effective since it doesn't seem it like it has anything to do with the horse in question unless that horse lead wire to wire.

A couple of handicapping ideas regarding POR:
1) You can use POR velocities at 1C,2C and SC to find a horses comfort zone or pace of races where he performs well at. Conversely there will also be pace of races where the horse simply wont perform well against.

2) When you narrow a race to a couple of final contenders one can consider using the POR to make a final selection (1 horse bettor for ex). Of the final contenders the selection would be the horse who raced against the fastest POR in the qualifying pace line or lines.

Folks please feel free to chime in with any other feedback for "Tiz"!

[alydar_ David]

tizlinda,

In addition to Richie's handicapping suggestions utilizing the Pace Of the Race, one could use it for wagering with models. Check out this bomb I caught with the benefit of POR.

http://www.paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6623

[Ted Craven]

tizlinda,

A horse's response to the pace of the race is the defining aspect of a horse race. Either it sets the pace (runs 1st) or it overcomes the pace-setter(s): only ways to win.

So, for example - a horse may ran 'evenly' against a fast PoR in its last race (let's say F1 and F2 or the race through the 2nd Call point) and finished evenly but out of the money, perhaps in the top half of the field. Or, it may have faded due to the 2nd call energy expenditure being too much for their inherent ability, or too much that day (i.e. for that stage of their form cycle fitness), and they may have stopped running or faded badly.

In either event, the last line can look bad both positionally and by beaten lengths. But - if you switch the Velocity view to PoR (you can also watch the Adjusted screen or check the raw splits on Original, but Velocity equalizes distances and applied ITV and DTV adjustments - so apples to apples) you may see an even effort against a PoR faster than anyone else has faced, or faster than the expected pace setter today will set or can withstand. That bad or mediocre last line is now revealed as a potential hidden effort.

Checking the Pace of Race Velocity, or Adjusted times or Raw times can show you that, and not only for the last line, but any line. Visualize what PoR has the horse faced in the past, and what were its running positions versus various velocities - thus what can it face and what can it not face (its 'comfort zone' as Rich put it). Or, notice improvement/decline, e.g. by a younger horse or by an older horse returning from a layoff: against successively faster PoR, is it improving its position (and/or beaten lengths); against the same PoR or slower, is it not improving its position or falling back, over the last few races.

Try identifying the fastest PoR in all horses' last race (aka FPLR - check 2nd call velocity and True Speed, TS) for the E and EP positional runners and you will get an idea what likely pace today horses will be asked to face, and thus whether horses who faced far faster recently or in their past will appear to 'wake up' today.

If anyone has some specific examples of this, some screenshots or more links like David's would be instructive. (There's dozens each racing day... )

Ted

[tizlinda]

thanks, I got it now. I have far from mastered it, but I understand it.