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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
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07-12-2021, 10:38 PM | #21 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Ranch,
In your example I would use line 2. The line it was off 53 days, its the only useable line the horse has if you make it a contender. Prime makes it a contender. It had some early speed in last and the off track may have hindered it. Has enough speed to take the rest out of their game. The 1,2,5,6 & 9 are all UNKNOWN factors that are FTS or second time starters. Therefore a very iffy race and not a prime betting situation. If you must play just a small fun bet. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 07-12-2021 at 10:42 PM. |
07-12-2021, 10:54 PM | #22 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Sartin said; "Once a horse is off over 30 days there is no difference how long its off."
A horses form cycle is normally 30 days. In your example L 2was the only useable line, it wound not have made any difference if it was 55 days ago or 155 days or 2 55 days. Besides the horses one needs to look at the race as a whole, hence the unknown factors in this race made it "the race" not a good betting situation. For lines I go where Sartin guidelines take me. Mitch44 |
07-12-2021, 11:55 PM | #23 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
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Quote:
Last edited by ranchwest; 07-12-2021 at 11:59 PM. |
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07-13-2021, 09:26 AM | #24 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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At one time getting contenders and picking correct pace lines were critical to success. Today that's changed with advancements beyond our imagination such as Perceptor as an aide etc.
Where most fail today is in not doing analysis and seeking a black box approach. Still they should do better than ever before with the present day RDSS. Welcome back Ranch, your background of Sartin should aide your future success. Much has changed since the old days such as the improvement of % Med over the old % Early, Perceptor, BLBL, V/DC and RX Factors etc. Focus on the big picture and grasp concept and you'll do fine. Note: see my thread for beginners and read the later Follow Up's as recommended by Ted. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 07-13-2021 at 09:30 AM. |
07-13-2021, 11:51 AM | #25 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
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Mitch44, where is your thread for beginners?
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07-13-2021, 01:13 PM | #26 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Thornhill ON
Posts: 437
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We have space here...
This should be interesting for a new twist on RDSS
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May all wagers be Winners... |
07-13-2021, 01:44 PM | #27 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 324
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Beginners & Refresher Course
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12316 I took most of my notes starting from page 5, post #46 http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...t=12316&page=5 Good luck
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just keeping my trajectory in the positive http://sartinmethodology.com/pubs/RD...d_Glossary.pdf |
07-13-2021, 01:50 PM | #28 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
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Thanks, MJS6916!
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07-14-2021, 06:21 PM | #29 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
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Quote:
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07-14-2021, 07:59 PM | #30 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,117
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Hi Ranch. It's strictly case by case. When a horse has 3 instances I mark it as at early or late. When it hits 4 then I mark it too early or late. In some races all of your contenders will be at or above the %med level for the dist. In that case fall back to the other factors that are winning at that track. This is why, IMO, record keeping is important.
Tim
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