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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

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Old 09-20-2021, 03:01 PM   #11
raceman5
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See

what I mean about examples Ranch? On this board, more times than none will someone come thru.
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Old 09-20-2021, 03:57 PM   #12
ranchwest
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Ted, the top 5 prime were 14,1,4,9,6, but the 14 remained as AE, so the 7 was the #5 prime horse remaining. Sorry, I missed seeing that.
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Old 09-21-2021, 07:16 AM   #13
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PACE Makes the Race/TPR

It's not a great example race since the E/L difference between the ltop horse and the next highest EPR horse was only about 12. But the E/L difference between the top horse and all other horses was over 20, and the horse finished third and paid 6.60 to show..

I have two other races that are even better examples of this angle. They both involve posts by FTL.

The first post is
"TP Race 3 & Lasix" by FTL on 1/27/2013l
This was an 8.5f Poly race for 5000C FM N2L. The winner (Prom Theme) paid $29.80 going off at 13.9-1. Prom Theme had an E/L difference of greater than 20 over every other horse in the race.

The second post is
"Bill V f goes the Extra Mile" by FTL on 1/19/20130
This was an 8f Dirt race for 16,000C 4+ N3-L on Jan 14, 2013. The winner (Foreign Review) won and paid #16.60 goi;ng off at 7.3 to 1. He had an E/L stick of +19 and the next closest horse had an E/L difference of -2, for a e difference between the 2 horses of 21.

I apoligize but I haven't learned how to make attachments or I would have shown both of these post threads on this email so that you can see exactly what I am saying. I think they at least show that this angle is worth further investigation, particularly since both involve route races which are more difficult

to go wire to wire in IMO.

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Old 09-21-2021, 07:24 AM   #14
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PACE Makes the RACE- TPR

Ted

Thanks for showing the CH Downs race with all the readouts, etfc . I'm very aware that not having RDSS places me at a big disadvantage on the site compared to other members.

I hope that my last post goes a little ways in my offering a payback for all the valuable info I have learned from surfing this site. Like I said earlier, about Christmas I'll be buying RDSS and hope to make more conbributions and become a consistent winner.

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Old 09-22-2021, 05:21 PM   #15
Ted Craven
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We all benefit from you resurrecting older posts (though still current techniques) for renewed discussion.

If you let me know the LINK to those older discussions with screenshots from For The Lead's posts, I will add them to illustrate your previous example. To get the link, in the Post # in the upper right corner of each post, right-click and choose the Copy Link menu pop-up menu option. See the example below:

Name:  post.links.jpg
Views: 281
Size:  73.8 KB

Go to the page you were looking at with the FTL examples and get the link in the same way. Then I will know where it is and make a reference here to it. If needed, also find that race in the Example Database section for all the Teaching Example races.

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Old 09-23-2021, 09:30 AM   #16
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Pacce Makes the Race

Ted

Thanks for the vote of confidence. I think it gives you everything you need + the data from the (7) seven races. ba

Here's the data table in Excel attachedE-L DIFF GRAPH SPOT PLAY ANGLE.xlsx.

I may be getting way ahead of myself but mu gut instinct tells me that at some point in the near future I think this angle may turn out to be quite profitable. If that turns out to be the case, you may want to think about keeping everyone in the loop but make all the posts private so that the whales don't get wind of it.
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Old 09-23-2021, 09:39 AM   #17
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You already have Ranchwest's post. The other six posts were from

Kahunab on 4/7/09 titled Anybody Else Get Number's Blind
Lueylump on 5/13/19 titled. As Easy as 123. A
Lueylump on 5/4/09 titled Importance of Early/Late Graph
FTL on 1/27/13 titled TP Race 3
FTL on 1/19/13 titled Bill V goes ...

I'll have to get back to you on the Mine That Bird Ky DERBY post.

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Old 09-23-2021, 01:50 PM   #18
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Pace Makes the Race - TPR

I'd like to make some comments about Ranchwest's post on the 6th Race at CHD on 9/18/21, a 7F for 25,000mClmg FM.

There are only 2 positive comments about the 3rd place finisher, Itsy Bitsy Betsy. First, She had the highest/fastest running style in the race E8, so she would be expected to take the early lead. Second, she had the highest E/L difference in the race, 24.3. The next highest was the eventual winner, Shania with an E/L difference of 12.8. The two next hgihest were 8.6 and then 7.8 and then down to 4.3. Usually, in these kind of races where there iss an E/L difference dominant horse, that horse also has the highest EPR rating. Itsy Bitsy Betty was 5th with an EPR of 87. The top EPR horse in the race had a 90.
She was not in the top 5 in terms of CSR or VDC or BL/.BL. She had the lowest TPR in the race by 25 and the lowest Total Energy by 6.6. This horse led until the stretch and finished third to the eventual winner by 1/2 length. i

If this race is typical, my takeaway from this is that these big E/L difference horses will carry their speed further than you would ordinarily expect asnd will finish in the money if not win the race in question outright.

The eventual winner, Shania, has the same argument as Itsy Bitsy Betsy to a lesser degree. Also, it was only 0.5 shy of having the highest EPR in the race and it's TPR was mhhch much better. than Itsy's. She would be expected to run near the front end of the race. Her Total Energy was only 2 points less than the top rated horse.

Finally, the eventual 2nd place horse, Peyton's College, was the second best CSR horse and the 3rd best VDC and BL/BL horse. Using the traditional approach for the 2nd place horse and the E/L difference appraoch for the 1st and 3rd place horses, the exacta and trifecta were gettable. The exacta paid
$228,20 and the trifecta paid $973.70.

Shania, at odds of 13-1 paid $28.00 to win. Peyton's College, at odds of 9,3-1 paid $7.6o to place and Itsy Bitsy Betsy, at odds of 9.6-1 paid $6.80 to show.

I would appreciate any comments, suggestions or well meant criticisms.

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Old 09-23-2021, 07:49 PM   #19
Ted Craven
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 1retired View Post
You already have Ranchwest's post. The other six posts were from

Kahunab on 4/7/09 titled Anybody Else Get Number's Blind
Lueylump on 5/13/19 titled. As Easy as 123. A
Lueylump on 5/4/09 titled Importance of Early/Late Graph
FTL on 1/27/13 titled TP Race 3
FTL on 1/19/13 titled Bill V goes ...

I'll have to get back to you on the Mine That Bird Ky DERBY post.

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Thanks Dave. I don't feel like searching for those posts to find the images to re-post here. I gave the method in my previous post to find the direct LINKs to the posts. If anyone feels like doing that, I can post the images for further discussion.

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Old 09-24-2021, 12:31 PM   #20
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Pace Makes the RAce - TPR

From previous posts, I have started a spot play angle based on two posts from Lueylump in 2009 regarding the Early/Late Difference Graph. Luey postulated in his posts that a horse with an Early/Late Difference that was significantly greater than the E/L difference of all of the other horses in the race, had a significant advantage over those horses. It could (1) immediately go to the lead, relax and maintain that lead to the wire. or almost maintain it and still finish in the moneyl. (2) tThe second option it could take was to run along with the "herd" and then make an explosive burst on the far turn or in the stretch to win the race. I ask that you carefully read every word of both Luey's posts "Importance of the E/L Difference Graph" and "As Easy as 1,2,3".

No specific E?/L difference number was identified by Luey. I have provisionally established my limit as AT LEAST 10. Every time I have identified a horse meeting this criteria I have placed it in the databsse. So far, I have; not identified any horse meeting this criteria that has not at least finished Show (once) or Place (once). All of the other 6 horses identified have won at big prices and were part of exactas and trifectas on the order of 100s and 1000sx of dollars. The winning odds on these 8 horses goes from 7.3 toi - to 50.6-1.
3

Other factors that I am monitoring but have not established limits for, so far, are EPR Diff, TOtal Pace Rating, Total Energy, Running Stylpe, and ESP.(

Three sprint races have been identified and 5 route races. So far, no turf races have been identified but I am sure that they are there and willb be found.

The lowesgt level of race was a 5000 cliaming race at TP. The highest level races identified were a Grade 2 Handicap at HOL and Mine That Bird's Ky Derby and Plalrace Malice's Belmont Stakes. So, this method is widely applicable up and down the class ladder but not at the minimal levels that you will see at MNR, CT, TDN and FL and other lower level tracks. However, I think that you will find winners at those tracks as well.

What makes this angle so great is that a winning horse will often have less and often significantly less numbers in factors such as TPR and Total Energy and, as well, often not have top 5 numbers in VDC, CSR, BPP, PL and BL/BL. Those factors and numbers get approx, 90% of all winners. This angle identifies longshot horses that figure, ACCORDING TO THIOS ANGLE from the 10% remaining horses. These winners also get some tremendous exactas and trifectas and, by extension, will also help get large DDs, and Pick 3,4,5, 6s.

The Excel spreadsheet with the data for the 8 horses identified so far ais attached just below this sentence, I hope. It may be at the end of the document. Im' not very good at attachments.

As soon as I learn how, I will be attaching the relevant workup portion of these 8 races to my next email.

For those interested in seeing the posts and the data right now, here are the relevant posts and post #'s

A Couple of old threads on TPR - Post #9 on/about 9/18/21 by ?
TP Race 3 and Lasix - Post #2 on/about 1/27/13 by FTL
Bill V Goes the Extra Mile. - POst #1 on/about 1/14/13 by FTL
Importance of the Earluy/Late
Difference Graph - Post # 4 on/about 5/12/09 by Lueylump
As East as 1,2,3 - Post #1 on/about 5/9/09 by Lueylump
Anybody Else Ever Get
"Numbers Blind" - Post #1 on/abut 4/1/09 by Kahunab
As Easy as 1,2,3 - Post #4 on/about 5/9/09 by Lueylump
Dissecting the Ky Derby
Paceline - Post #2 on/about 6/8/13 by Lone Speed

Right now this data is unbelievably good, in fact, too good. There are no losers. That is not reality. There are losers when using this angle and I/ we need to find them so that we can determine how profitable this angle is in reality, if at all. I think it will be but I need more data to determine that. I will be handicapping more races and monitoring this website but I don't have RDSS so I won't be really able to uncover new winners in races myself. I have a very lold Apple computer on its last legs. Apple computers are not conducive to RDSS and it costs some money to adapt them. I don't have a lot of money right now. I will have at Christmas when I can buy a new compulter and an RDSS subscription. From then on I'll be handicapping my own races using RDSS. pI ask that you help me out in this regard a nd notify me when you find new races fitting this category of longshot, whether it wins, places in the money or not. I'll report back to you with all of the new data that I get.

Spome of you may feel tthat you are or will be doing all the work and I'll be getting some benefit from you work but not contributingg. So, be it. I'm using all the tools that I have at this time to do what I can in this regard. I'm doing the initial work here and will contribute as much as I can until Christmas with what I have. The uncovering of new winning angles and facets of the handicapping game and presenting them to the other members on this website is what I imagine is the purpose of this website.

Thanks in advance
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File Type: xlsx E-L DIFF GRAPH SPOT PLAY ANGLE.xlsx (9.3 KB, 586 views)
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