Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...)
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-13-2021, 07:25 PM   #1
Hanger
AlwNW3X
 
Join Date: May 2019
Posts: 40
Race with new distance for all? PL selection

Del Mar Race 1 today- 8F on Turf

Field of 8 post scratch....
All starters have been sprinters in minimal starts- all but 1 lone start from the bunch on dirt.

How do you set your PaceLines for this scenario? Going to guess most skip the race entirely but I am curious.


I had my selections of 2,4/6,7,1 but watched the tote action to guide me. Small dutch on 2,4 so DQ didnt bother me, but is there an ideal way in this scenario besides skipping?
Hanger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-14-2021, 01:03 AM   #2
Ted Craven
Grade 1
 
Ted Craven's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
I think the technical term for this kind of race is 'crap-shoot'. But, also where prices can be had from time to time. Choose your chaos tolerance.

My rule is: demote from Win in a turf race anyone who has not previously run (well) in a Turf race. I win more than I lose by applying this guidance. Thus - there's only 1 horse: the #4 (the rule magically knows about DQs ).

The default 'Best of Last 3' Paceline Strategy works as well as any, IMO. FWIW, take a look at the Supplementary Factors on the Rx screen, including the PoR Supplementals. Which of the underneath horses rates best? (the #7 Place horse).

The other part of the crap-shoot is: who knows how these horses will stretch out (another 3 furlongs).

Your Exacta part-wheel seems the perfect bet that the favourites will not finish 1-2, given the action on those 2 and the FTS. $6 bet returns $32, or 5-1 (probably better if you dutch it for an equal payoff). Is 5-1 enough payoff with so many unknowns?

I'd rather get more, and would pass.

Name:  DMR1.jpg
Views: 632
Size:  157.1 KB

Ted
__________________

R
DSS -
Racing Decision Support System™

Last edited by Ted Craven; 08-14-2021 at 03:38 PM. Reason: typo
Ted Craven is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-14-2021, 02:41 AM   #3
ranchwest
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hanger View Post
Del Mar Race 1 today- 8F on Turf

Field of 8 post scratch....
All starters have been sprinters in minimal starts- all but 1 lone start from the bunch on dirt.

How do you set your PaceLines for this scenario? Going to guess most skip the race entirely but I am curious.


I had my selections of 2,4/6,7,1 but watched the tote action to guide me. Small dutch on 2,4 so DQ didnt bother me, but is there an ideal way in this scenario besides skipping?
Here's my pace lines (everybody has some, so here's mine):

1 1
2 2
4 1
6 1
7 1
9 1

My pace numbers point to 4-2-7. Admittedly I am doing this after the fact and not evaluating any of the firsters.

I see Ted and I have different lines for #6, but for me it was a toss up on that one.

Last edited by ranchwest; 08-14-2021 at 02:59 AM.
ranchwest is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-14-2021, 09:14 AM   #4
Lt1
Grade 1
 
Lt1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,037
As one who maintains models for each dist and surface of the tracks I play I would lean on the %med range since most sprinters expend their energy too early in routes i would see which factors are currently winning at the dist. Still the best course in this type of race is El Paso.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify
Lt1 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-14-2021, 09:54 PM   #5
Hanger
AlwNW3X
 
Join Date: May 2019
Posts: 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Craven View Post
I think the technical term for this kind of race is 'crap-shoot'. But, also where prices can be had from time to time. Choose your chaos tolerance.

My rule is: demote from Win in a turf race anyone who has not previously run (well) in a Turf race. I win more than I lose by applying this guidance. Thus - there's only 1 horse: the #4 (the rule magically knows about DQs ).

The default 'Best of Last 3' Paceline Strategy works as well as any, IMO. FWIW, take a look at the Supplementary Factors on the Rx screen, including the PoR Supplementals. Which of the underneath horses rates best? (the #7 Place horse).

The other part of the crap-shoot is: who knows how these horses will stretch out (another 3 furlongs).

Your Exacta part-wheel seems the perfect bet that the favourites will not finish 1-2, given the action on those 2 and the FTS. $6 bet returns $32, or 5-1 (probably better if you dutch it for an equal payoff). Is 5-1 enough payoff with so many unknowns?

I'd rather get more, and would pass.

Attachment 49889

Ted

Sorry I was away today and unable to get on the forums for most of the day. I would think that 5-1 given the unknowns is below the acceptable risk/reward ratio for most gamblers that seek higher value in chaos races.

I do like the demote anyone who has not ran well in Turf before- with unknowns one is required to know a little pedigree or see turf works etc....thank you
Hanger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-14-2021, 09:56 PM   #6
Hanger
AlwNW3X
 
Join Date: May 2019
Posts: 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lt1 View Post
As one who maintains models for each dist and surface of the tracks I play I would lean on the %med range since most sprinters expend their energy too early in routes i would see which factors are currently winning at the dist. Still the best course in this type of race is El Paso.
Tim

That is where models help, to understand what wins where, thank you- the %med is an interesting take, just on the fact that sprinters gonna sprint early thought process, and have little left late.

I would think perhaps Late would be a good indicator of a stretch out type horse if VDC was low with high energy, but I may be speaking above my knowledge level in this regard.
Hanger is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Ky Derby PP's & Analysis Mitch44 Races of Interest 24 05-05-2018 07:31 PM
CT test Bill V. Pace Makes the Race / TPR 40 08-28-2017 09:32 PM
Woodbine notes Saturday 4/30 Bill V. Pace Makes the Race / TPR 66 05-21-2016 09:00 AM
Adjustments Question Ted Craven RDSS2 / FAQ's 3 06-29-2014 03:22 PM
Major vs. Minor tracks Bill P General Discussion 109 04-05-2010 03:23 PM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:11 PM.