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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

 
 
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Old 04-22-2016, 12:28 AM   #12
Bill V.
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Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
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Readouts

My workup

Step 1 Top 5 TPR Line 1
3 8 14 5 4

Step 2 Fulcrum horse
Fulcrum horse # 1 83 EPR

Step 3 Running styles

Horse 1 EP Line 1 + race no reason to go past it
Horse 2 Sus Line 2 Off 103 day Line 2 Excuse line 1 Wrong surface
Horse 3 Press Line 2 is not a plus line but it is the only recent turf route
Horse 4 Sus Off 222 days This is too long a layoff Doc's cut ooff is 189 days
Horse 5 Sus No line no comparable turf routes within 90 days
Horse 6 EP Line 2 Excuse line 1 wrong surface
Horse 7 Sus Line 1 Nice effort in line 1 after a long layoffat 9 furlongs Now comes back again after 49 days ?
Line 4 is the same race as today and it only earned a 161TPR
Horse 8 EP No Line no comparable turf routes within 90 days
Horse 9 SP Don't like to use 7.5 lines Only because I can't get past line 1 This horse shows no + races within 90 days
routing
Horse 10 Early No Line no comparable turf routes within 90 days
Horse 11 SP No Line no comparable turf routes within 90 days
Horse 12 EP Line 2 excuse line 1 Too high class
Horse 13 Presser No Line no comparable turf routes within 90 days
Horse 14 Sus No Line no comparable turf routes within 90 days

Now My top 5 TPR horses
12, 4 7 6 2


Step 4 Who has the top EPR

The 6 has the best EPR 85
Early Presser
Can It go wire to
wire = against the horses with pace lines yes it could ,


The top TPR horses
They are 12 4 7-6 tie
Top 3 VDC = 12 7 2


My bets The 6 beats the 1 in EPR The 7 is a question mark because of the distance and poor effort in line 4 12 Is The best LPR and TPR
The 4 has too long a layoff The 2 is my OTE horse and its top 3 VDC
with so many question marks i would probably pass
If I had to bet i would look OTE

my bets 12 and 2

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