1/11/14 SA 6th - Page 2 - Pace and Cap

viikinki · 01-12-2014, 04:26 AM

This is so easy after the fact. I made a mistake saying that 1,3,4,10 are earlies. Nope. 4 happened to get lead IN ONE RACE, that doesnt make him an early! 1 can open with speed that 10 has trouble with -> 1 dominates 10 -> #1 gets the lead and the question comes, can #3 press him enough. No, because #1 can go 22-25 which doesn't give #3 a chance to press -> #1 should go wire-to-wire easily. See, this is easy

One thing Bill and I were correct: pace 22 - 45 hit pretty nicely to our projection!

Oh well, next race!

Speed · 01-12-2014, 08:09 AM

Watching the race, the

had anything but an easy lead and did have pressure all the way to the stretch. Actually the

had a head past him at the beginning of the stretch. The field was bunched within 2.5 L of leader into the 1st turn with the exception of the

did get steadied in turn and fell back a little then came about 5 wide and flattened out.

The 8 came from last to 3rd.

The challenge of the race was dealing with BHP AW lines going to SA Dirt and factoring in the general model of SA towards E and E/P horses.

viikinki · 01-12-2014, 08:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Speed

Watching the race, the

had anything but an easy lead and did have pressure all the way to the stretch. Actually the

had a head past him at the beginning of the stretch.

Yes but before the race we only had the PPs to go with and they told it could happen

But like I said, after the race we would win every one...

I have a bit trouble with the earlies. Hard to decide who goes to the lead, does he go wire-to-wire etc. Well more practice.

viikinki · 01-12-2014, 08:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Speed

factoring in the general model of SA towards E and E/P horses.

How do you know this? Just from experience or modeling?

Speed · 01-12-2014, 09:41 AM

For the sake of this specific race with the info Pete posted the BRIS PP. Summary page at end shows 42% of the last 18 sprint races were won By E horse and 42% by E/P. I dont play SA very much so I don't keep a specific model. Curious what % Energy sprint model shows for this track this meet, Anyone?

You are not going to predict the Pace scenario correct all the time. A an E horse can break poorly or sometimes the trainer/Jock read the PP and alter the normal plan when they have a horse that they think can run a different style. For me I require Closers need higher odds as they have they always run the risk of trouble or alot of extra distance when they have to pass a bunch of horses.

Bill Lyster · 01-12-2014, 02:07 PM

I think that there was a rush to judgment here, at least on my part and a failure to implement a few key points in The Hats matchup teachings.

There were two horses with 8 Quirin speed points, the 1 and the 3. The 3 was failing badly against 23.0 first fractions.

I pegged the 1, 4, 10 and 3 as early horses as well as the 5. I clearly overlooked at least one important factor that is PURE HAT. Looking at break positions, historically this is what I found

1: broke 1st 2 times; broke 2nd 3 times, broke 3rd 2 times
4: broke 2nd 1, broke 3rd 1 time; broke 4th 1 time -last time out wire to wire with open length lead and 4 legnths ahead at 3/4 in 110.3
3: broke 2st 2 times and 2nd 2 times; was way out of it at 3/4 in last two
10: broke 1st 3 times, broke 2nd 1 time and broke 3rd 2 times

The two most likely early horses based on breaking from the gate are the 1 ( 5 times 1st or 2nd) and 10 (4 times 1st or 2nd). The 4 got the lead last time breaking 4th, but at least two other horses have shown that they break better and are better candidates for the lead. Could he break first in this field and get the lead he needed to go on and win?

Even if the 4 got the same lead as in its last he would not be able to lead by two at the half, since both the 1 and 10 could pressure him - reading all of the PPs.

I can see I put too much reliance on the shape of this race and not enough on the speed of the race. The 2, 7 and 11 were my pressers and their best finishes, regardless of pace or surface were for the 2 (111.1 and 111.2), for the 7 (110.2 and 110.3 on dirt - worse on poly), and for the 11 (111.3, 111.4 - both poly and 110.4 on dirt, line 5)

By comparison the winner, #1 ran 110.1 and 109.6 on poly. Note that the 1 showed it could fight to the 2nd call in lines 8, 9, and 10

Doing my homework on break positions before discarding the early contenders and reading ALL OF THE PPs might have changed my opinion of the Early/OTE shape of this race. Taking better account of best times should have made me think twice about OTE status of this race.

Bill Lyster · 01-12-2014, 02:17 PM

Meant to put this up with my last post

PeteC · 01-16-2014, 05:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

I think that there was a rush to judgment here, at least on my part and a failure to implement a few key points in The Hats matchup teachings.

There were two horses with 8 Quirin speed points, the 1 and the 3. The 3 was failing badly against 23.0 first fractions.

I pegged the 1, 4, 10 and 3 as early horses as well as the 5. I clearly overlooked at least one important factor that is PURE HAT. Looking at break positions, historically this is what I found

1: broke 1st 2 times; broke 2nd 3 times, broke 3rd 2 times
4: broke 2nd 1, broke 3rd 1 time; broke 4th 1 time -last time out wire to wire with open length lead and 4 legnths ahead at 3/4 in 110.3
3: broke 2st 2 times and 2nd 2 times; was way out of it at 3/4 in last two
10: broke 1st 3 times, broke 2nd 1 time and broke 3rd 2 times

The two most likely early horses based on breaking from the gate are the 1 ( 5 times 1st or 2nd) and 10 (4 times 1st or 2nd). The 4 got the lead last time breaking 4th, but at least two other horses have shown that they break better and are better candidates for the lead. Could he break first in this field and get the lead he needed to go on and win?

Even if the 4 got the same lead as in its last he would not be able to lead by two at the half, since both the 1 and 10 could pressure him - reading all of the PPs.

I can see I put too much reliance on the shape of this race and not enough on the speed of the race. The 2, 7 and 11 were my pressers and their best finishes, regardless of pace or surface were for the 2 (111.1 and 111.2), for the 7 (110.2 and 110.3 on dirt - worse on poly), and for the 11 (111.3, 111.4 - both poly and 110.4 on dirt, line 5)

By comparison the winner, #1 ran 110.1 and 109.6 on poly. Note that the 1 showed it could fight to the 2nd call in lines 8, 9, and 10

Doing my homework on break positions before discarding the early contenders and reading ALL OF THE PPs might have changed my opinion of the Early/OTE shape of this race. Taking better account of best times should have made me think twice about OTE status of this race.

Thanks Bill, good insight. Keep looking "LEFT" in the PP's as Richie used to emphasize.

dlivery · 01-16-2014, 08:32 PM

Begins as soon as the gate pop's. You are so right when viewing the PP's looking to the left has has greatly improved my results at end of the race
I'm happy to say Thank- You for bringing up a great post

Segwin · 01-17-2014, 07:05 AM

I have not run across the phrase "keep looking to the left", what does that mean?

01-12-2014, 09:41 AM	#15
Speed Maiden Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 3	For the sake of this specific race with the info Pete posted the BRIS PP. Summary page at end shows 42% of the last 18 sprint races were won By E horse and 42% by E/P. I dont play SA very much so I don't keep a specific model. Curious what % Energy sprint model shows for this track this meet, Anyone? You are not going to predict the Pace scenario correct all the time. A an E horse can break poorly or sometimes the trainer/Jock read the PP and alter the normal plan when they have a horse that they think can run a different style. For me I require Closers need higher odds as they have they always run the risk of trouble or alot of extra distance when they have to pass a bunch of horses. Last edited by Speed; 01-12-2014 at 09:48 AM.

01-12-2014, 02:07 PM	#16
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Looking back I think that there was a rush to judgment here, at least on my part and a failure to implement a few key points in The Hats matchup teachings. There were two horses with 8 Quirin speed points, the 1 and the 3. The 3 was failing badly against 23.0 first fractions. I pegged the 1, 4, 10 and 3 as early horses as well as the 5. I clearly overlooked at least one important factor that is PURE HAT. Looking at break positions, historically this is what I found 1: broke 1st 2 times; broke 2nd 3 times, broke 3rd 2 times 4: broke 2nd 1, broke 3rd 1 time; broke 4th 1 time -last time out wire to wire with open length lead and 4 legnths ahead at 3/4 in 110.3 3: broke 2st 2 times and 2nd 2 times; was way out of it at 3/4 in last two 10: broke 1st 3 times, broke 2nd 1 time and broke 3rd 2 times The two most likely early horses based on breaking from the gate are the 1 ( 5 times 1st or 2nd) and 10 (4 times 1st or 2nd). The 4 got the lead last time breaking 4th, but at least two other horses have shown that they break better and are better candidates for the lead. Could he break first in this field and get the lead he needed to go on and win? Even if the 4 got the same lead as in its last he would not be able to lead by two at the half, since both the 1 and 10 could pressure him - reading all of the PPs. I can see I put too much reliance on the shape of this race and not enough on the speed of the race. The 2, 7 and 11 were my pressers and their best finishes, regardless of pace or surface were for the 2 (111.1 and 111.2), for the 7 (110.2 and 110.3 on dirt - worse on poly), and for the 11 (111.3, 111.4 - both poly and 110.4 on dirt, line 5) By comparison the winner, #1 ran 110.1 and 109.6 on poly. Note that the 1 showed it could fight to the 2nd call in lines 8, 9, and 10 Doing my homework on break positions before discarding the early contenders and reading ALL OF THE PPs might have changed my opinion of the Early/OTE shape of this race. Taking better account of best times should have made me think twice about OTE status of this race.

01-12-2014, 02:17 PM	#17
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Meant to put this up with my last post Attached Images

01-16-2014, 08:32 PM	#19
dlivery Grade 1 Join Date: May 2009 Location: Thornhill ON Posts: 437	As Doc would say the race: Begins as soon as the gate pop's. You are so right when viewing the PP's looking to the left has has greatly improved my results at end of the race I'm happy to say Thank- You for bringing up a great post __________________ May all wagers be Winners...

01-17-2014, 07:05 AM	#20
Segwin Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: Cleveland, Ohio Posts: 624	I have not run across the phrase "keep looking to the left", what does that mean? __________________ Terry

01-12-2014, 04:26 AM	#11
viikinki AlwNW3X Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 37	This is so easy after the fact. I made a mistake saying that 1,3,4,10 are earlies. Nope. 4 happened to get lead IN ONE RACE, that doesnt make him an early! 1 can open with speed that 10 has trouble with -> 1 dominates 10 -> #1 gets the lead and the question comes, can #3 press him enough. No, because #1 can go 22-25 which doesn't give #3 a chance to press -> #1 should go wire-to-wire easily. See, this is easy One thing Bill and I were correct: pace 22 - 45 hit pretty nicely to our projection! Oh well, next race!

01-12-2014, 08:09 AM	#12
Speed Maiden Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 3	Watching the race, the had anything but an easy lead and did have pressure all the way to the stretch. Actually the had a head past him at the beginning of the stretch. The field was bunched within 2.5 L of leader into the 1st turn with the exception of the did get steadied in turn and fell back a little then came about 5 wide and flattened out. The 8 came from last to 3rd. The challenge of the race was dealing with BHP AW lines going to SA Dirt and factoring in the general model of SA towards E and E/P horses.