Picking Losers

[rdiam]

Imagine if Andy Beyer had written a book on horse race betting and entitled it "Picking Losers". Probably wouldn't sell many. I will argue that skill in picking losers when handicapping and betting on horses is critical as to whether you have a mathematical edge (+EV) and will actually make $ over a reasonable sample size.

Too many on this board are living in the past as far as handicapping and betting go:

1. The game is no longer about having the best speed or pace figures, now that speed or pace figures are widely disseminated

2. The game is no longer about betting the horse with the best early speed, as large public data bases have been data mined and this angle now overbet

3. The game is now dominated by large syndicates getting large (8% plus) rebates and small fields such that favorites now win close to 40% of all races and prices on these favorites are bet down to reflect the large rebates being received.

4. The game has NEVER been about contender selection being higher than an arbitrary percentage

5. The game has NEVER been about win percentage being higher than an arbitrary percentage


But wait -- Sartin always said we need to have N contenders X percent of the time, and a win percentage of Z betting 2 horses a race. My response is that Sartin is not betting horses in 2019 conditions. In reality, with today's conditions, if you are winning more than 25% of your 1-horse win bets or more than 50% of your 2-horse win bets YOU ARE BETTING TOO MUCH CHALK. Chalk is where the syndicates live and unless you are a high rebate player your will lose trying to play in their sandbox. You need a mathematical edge to win $.


So how do we find our mathematical edge? First, it is important to remember that we are betting into a pari-mutuel pool. We are not betting ON horses, we are betting AGAINST others in the pool. It is not about picking pace lines, interpreting read-outs, and betting on winners. It is about picking losers.


Why picking losers? Because in addition to betting AGAINST others in the pool, roughly 20% of the win pool (and higher for exotics) is the "vig". For every $1 you bet, you are down 20 cents before the race is even run. That is the undeniable math. In order to make $ at this game, you have to find races where you can overcome the "vig". Professional gamblers call this "getting the best of it". How do we overcome the "vig"? NOT by picking winners, but by picking LOSERS! That's right, your most important job when handicapping and betting a race is to find a horse going off at 3-1 or LOWER that, in your trusted opinion, CANNOT WIN. This will create a pari-mutuel pool for your individual bet that now has +EV, and if your contender selection/pace line selection/betting selection skills are any good, you have a fighting chance to actually make $ at this game. For those who are successful, most of their winnings come from betting to win on horses paying more than $10, or betting exactas where the place horse is NOT one of the top 3 betting choices, or betting horizontals where at least half of the sequence is won by horses paying 4-1 or higher.


Bottom line, betting horses is not about picking winners. It is not about cashing tickets. It is about picking losers that make up roughly 25% of the pool (or more), and finding +EV bets with your other horses.


Richard