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RDSS Racing Decision Support System – The Modern Sartin Methodology

 
 
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Old 02-04-2009, 09:18 PM   #1
Bill V.
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The best way to use RDSS

What is the best way to use RDSS ?

If I was asked that question This is what I would say

I know 3 users of RDSS who use it in a way that I would tell you is most likely the best way for you
The three users of RDSS that I am referring to all do very well. Honestly when one or more of them post races on Pace and Cap I make full bets on my 4njbets wagering account off the final readouts i see on the screen I don't look at pace line choices or most of the various readouts they post. I just look at the Bottom
line betting line I'm totally sure that the lines and selection method they use is valid

What i suggest to you is to do what they do

Use the Speculator 160 mode
Keep the default recommended settings

Trackmaster ITV (inter track variants )
and use 50% track variant

I would tell you to work any race as long as there were
pace lines, at least 3 and if you do a race with first time starters
or horses with no north American lines That you pass if there are more than two horses in the race
with non usable pace lines

When you pick lines take the best line of the last 3 - most recent races
Set the top panel to the original pace line data tap
Set the second panel to the Primary tap
and take the horse rated best on the preceptor ranking
This ranking uses a low number is best method
I would suggest that you use the lowest preceptor total
score of the last 3 or 4 races, Use 4 or 5 lines if there are lines in the top 3 that clearly are
not comparable surface distance and to some extent class level
you can also look at the tandems and workout and comments tabs
when you have picked your lines press the Analysis tap
Now from the Primary Tab take out the non contenders
I would leave 4 or 5 horse
You should look at theses screens for sure
Very Important The Early Late graph and the Energy Generator
the good users of RDSS I refer to also look at the segments screen

On the BLBL screen look for value horses in your top 3
I would suggest to try to always look at the same amount of horses every race
Bet the best two of the top 3 or 4 rated horses

That's a pretty fast answer If I'm not clear and you have further questions
just ask I will be very happy to help you .

This is not how I use RDSS but as I said I know 3 people who do use
RDSS in close similar manner and they do well. I fell this way is probably the best way to use RDSS
for you too

GS
Bill
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Old 02-05-2009, 06:02 AM   #2
RichieP
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Adding 3 simple things to Bill's great post:
Record keeping aids:
1) Do exactly what Bill says and reduce fields to the SAME number of final contenders each time. Then track the WINNERS "balance" readout ("Bal" on the Bl/bl screen). You WILL find amazing commonality amongst WINNING HORSES number here.

2) Track the E/L graph "sticks" for WINNING horses. Break it down by track/surface/distance. Put the win price next to each record to see patterns of both low payers and the high payers. Bill was shown this by Doc Sartin when he spent time with Howard at his Pirco offices.

3) The "Power of Tier 3". Pay close attention to what tier YOUR longshots are usually in. Doc Sartin has written MANY times about the THIRD ranked horse on the Bl/Bl being a magnet (paraphrasing here please) which attracts the longer priced horses.

The following 2 screen shots show this tier 3 phenomena of long shots WINNING from that spot. Race ran 2 days ago at Turf Paradise and a $37.60 mutual was most pleasing result. THIRD tier ranked.

All the best
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Last edited by RichieP; 02-05-2009 at 06:11 AM.
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Old 02-05-2009, 09:52 AM   #3
shrink1
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Bill, and Richie,
Thanks for your great analysis. I have always picked up extra tips from both of you guys, and I really appreciate it.
Ira
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Old 02-05-2009, 10:16 AM   #4
JimG
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I presume you are talking about keeping records by track of what tier "long shots" are winning from. Why would one particular tier contain an inordinate amount of long shots? I am not saying it does not occur, but why?

Say for the sake of argument say long shots seem to win over the last couple of weeks from Tier 3 at PHA and Tier 4 from GP. Does that mean when a long shot appears from that tier it should automatically be bet? What confidence level would a person need to make such a leap? Is there any reason to think it should continue?

I would think you would want to see long shots listed in the top 2 or 3 horses on BL/BL outrun their odds with some consistency to feel good about how you are using the software and selecting pace lines.

For example if I am betting 2 horses to win and race comes up

Tier 1 6/1
Tier 1 12/1
Tier 3 15/1

I would have to have a real solid reason to skip one of the horses in Tier 1 to bet the horse in Tier 3 just because a few long shots have won in Tier 3 over the last month.

Jim
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Old 02-05-2009, 11:40 AM   #5
clore1030
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Richie - nice post.
But from my experience, what's most important in a group such as that is how closely the BL ranks fall. The second horse is eight-tenths away from the top, and the third ranked is just 3 or so points below that.

Let's for the sake of argument, imagine that as lengths. The top horse is just 3/4 ahead of the second horse who in turn, is only three lengths ahead of the third contender.

On the other hand, I've found that if the top ranked horse is about 25% higher on a point scale than the second horse, that one should be considered stronger than one who is only 5% ahead.

Right now, after some disastrous post-holiday results on the Inner Dirt Track at AQU, I'm tracking the individual rankings that make up the primary line score, plus the BL score.

At first I was using full fields because I was finding out that by reducing it down to five horses (six in races of 10 or more), I had too many horses that didn't make the cut.

I was eliminating by lowest Total Energy scores on the Energy screen.

What I discovered when compiling the full field data was that a bunch of the winners at 6 furlongs who didn't make it on Total Energy DID qualify on Hidden Energy.

So I went back and used the same selection criteria, but whittled the fields down by Hidden Energy instead, and was at least getting the winners in the finals, even if not on top.

Again, this was purely 6 furlongs, so I don't advocate this for all distances on the Inner Dirt Track.

I'm still massaging the data, looking for more patterns. But I'll throw out a few highlights:

With 26 races tracked, not one horse that was ranked second in EP has won a race! Top ranked took six of the heats, while third-ranked EP won seven. Thus, that's 13 of 26 races. But LP also had 13 of 26 in the top 3, but here the split was a more evenly distributed 5-5-3 for first-second and third.

The strongest category is the FW one, where 16 of the 26 winners were in the top 3, fairly evenly split at 5-6-5 for first-second and third.

Mile races seem the hardest to rate, the data is all over the place and until I get a better handle on them, I'll be passing all mile races on the IDT.

Only 7 of 17 races at 1m70 were in the top two BL ranks, but 10 of 17 made the top two in FX. 12 of 17 were in the top 3 LPR while only 9 of 17 made the top 3 EPR.

6 of the 17 were ranked 5 or 6 in EP at 1m70, which is an aberration from the old IDT and what prompted this project of mine in the first place.

I'm just using these as a guide to further narrow down contenders, it doesn't mean an automatic wager.
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Old 02-05-2009, 06:40 PM   #6
Bill V.
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Jim

Doc' explaination why tier 3 is a good source for overlays
is when most clients pick pace lines using his guidelines of the best
of the last 3 comparable the horses ranked first and second

most likely have very good pace lines - that is they may have peaked
in the pace line race. A horse ranked 3rd or 4th may have done well in its paceline race against the pace of the race it ran but it might not be so eveident to the public and now this race is the race it will peak

Doc also wrote that by using the plus zero and plus within a zero
race notations that whaen overlays win very often the race before is a plus within a zero race

Thanks
Bill
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Old 02-05-2009, 06:52 PM   #7
JimG
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post
Doc' explaination why tier 3 is a good source for overlays
is when most clients pick pace lines using his guidelines of the best
of the last 3 comparable the horses ranked first and second

most likely have very good pace lines - that is they may have peaked
in the pace line race. A horse ranked 3rd or 4th may have done well in its paceline race against the pace of the race it ran but it might not be so eveident to the public and now this race is the race it will peak

Doc also wrote that by using the plus zero and plus within a zero
race notations that whaen overlays win very often the race before is a plus within a zero race

Thanks
Bill
Thanks for the reply Bill. That was helpful to my understanding.

Jim
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Old 02-06-2009, 03:10 PM   #8
Profiler8
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Thanks for the good work Richie, Bill, clore and all the others. Bill, I use the same method as you. I had really good winners at Turfway Park. My contenders are nearly always in the top four or top five.

At the moment (since two weeks), I can not find enough winners. Nearly all the winners are fourth or fifth at the moment. There are no positive collaries with them. Most of the time I bet my two horses in the top three tiers. The short price winners are nearly always in the top three, but I think there is no value to bet 6/4 etc.

What can I do ? I have tried now a little bit with the modes like Validator etc. of RDDS.
How many races should I bet on a card ? Most of the time I exclude Maidens and races with not much form.

Is the Early/Late graph better before hides or after the hides ?

Thanks and Greetings
Tim
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Old 02-06-2009, 07:20 PM   #9
Bill V.
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Validator

Hi Tim

A few things To get on the same page I don't use RDSS the way I explained in the first post. I see three people who use RDSS the way I laid out and its probably the better way.

If you find that your getting many winners in tier 4 or 5 It could be that
your entering a horse thats not a true contender Only you can answer iif you are or not another thing to be careful of some times the gap between the
4th and the 5th is very small Lokkat the line score numbers and see
if there are not ties in the higher rankings

The early late graph can be used before hides or after
The numbers don't change if you add or take out horses
Its a measure readout, Its not effected by the match up

Thanks
Bill
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Old 02-07-2009, 11:55 AM   #10
Profiler8
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Hi Bill,

thanks you for your support. I think sometimes I include too much horses in my analysis, because I search too much for value in a race, where is proably no value.

Thanks...

Greetings
Tim
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