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10-03-2022, 06:43 PM | #91 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
|
Caught this one today at PRX, pd. $35.40, #5 in the 6th.
COMPLETED:594cd-018d8 PRX #6 $3 Win 5 none $3.00 $53.10 + $50.10 Note: missed the EX on this one, also had several other's but this was the best payoff. They bet them down today. Gave this one to LT1 who also had a DD with it. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 10-03-2022 at 06:47 PM. |
10-04-2022, 12:17 AM | #92 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Maple Ridge, B.C. Canada
Posts: 3,150
|
Sure looks like the Amigos are back in the saddle again LOL
Darryl |
10-04-2022, 04:33 PM | #93 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Yes Darryl, I suppose a force to be reckoned with.
Mitch44 |
10-07-2022, 06:37 PM | #94 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
|
Today I went to Kee. Used a combination of W/0 % and " The Monkey" usual dart specials.
% W/0 had these winners: 2nd # 5 ranked 2nd Pd. $ 20.34 5th # 11 ranked # 1 $ 31.92 6th # 8 ranked tied for 3rd $ $46.40, placed # 9 ranked# 2 EX. Pd. $220.94 for $1 I thought I had this Ex. but missed it. 9th # 1 ranked 1st $ 10.20 My big hit was the DD in 6th 8 / 7 Pd. $ 400.94 X 4. COMPLETED: f1426-afaa4 KEE #6 $4 Double 8, 9, WT, 3, 5, 7 none $24.00 $1,603.76 + $1,579.76 Summary Number of Bets 34 Win Percentage 5.88% ROI 342.15% Wagered $379.00 Payoff $1,675.76 Profit/Loss $1,296.76 Mitch44 |
10-07-2022, 07:53 PM | #95 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,042
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Outstanding big guy.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify |
10-08-2022, 10:03 AM | #96 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
|
Predominately the higher % W/O are the best overall or the majority of the time. The 7 horse that anchored a big DD only had a 76, # 2 85 & # 5 83. None of which appear high for a G 2 race. I did analyze all 3 of these and came to the conclusion they were all top contenders. For the #2 it was a top and for the 7 a top.
These numbers are best put into perspective for that horse. How does a horse respond to a top? If we don't have that answer, we ride it along. If it fails it'll most likely will respond to slower W/O. Horses for some reason all of a sudden get good. Whatever brothers them heals or the trainer figures them out. Some are slow to get it right, the best trainers figure it out quick. This 7 was an interesting horse. Five of its 10 races were at shorter distances of 5.5 F, not good for a horse that has an ESP of SP & S. They need longer distances to catch the speed and the race to collapse. Also, it had several races on the Turf and sly tracks. This horse was very decent at 6F and on dirt. Its last race had its best Tot. Energy and TPR and a good W/0 since was a positive sign. Recall I said beware of a horse that runs a new top in TPR or Tot. Energy, they're in their best form. Sure, they could bounce or if properly placed continue to excel. I always go with momentum or positive. This 7 was also the counter energy horse and figured to pick up the pieces in the Match Up. I had him in the place slot for that reason in an EX. Its 4th place finish fooled the public, finish positions are overrated as compared to Tot. Energy and TPR. The general public just can't get past the last line and finish positions. Until you become good at analyzing form your better off taking an hour to do a race and tear it apart, then to mass produce crap. Of course, once good at this, stuff jumps up at you or looms up. It becomes a synaptic response from repetition. Their either improving with every race and workout or going in the opposite direction, even the best. Thoroughbred trainer Catalano, knew what he had. Trainer Catalano after race comment: "The horse is doing great. His last race showed that he was coming back to form," he said. "He got a big Beyer number, he was very happy, training great, so I was happy with him today." Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 10-08-2022 at 10:08 AM. |
10-09-2022, 10:46 AM | #97 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
|
Breakdown for 8 Oct. @ Kee.
7 of 1 were in Top 3 2nd # 6 W $ 27.00 Ranked # 2 4th # 3 W $ 10.28 Ranked 1st tied, broke w/ CR 6th # 4 W $ 2.74 Ranked # 2 7th # 7 W $ 6.78 Ranked # 3 Top 2 of CSR 8th # 4 W $7.74 Ranked # 2 9th # 7 W Ranked $ 10.86 Ranked 3rd best of top 3 on CR 10th # 8 W $ 14.70 Ranked 3rd Top 2 of CR of contenders For the day I lost $78.14, but that was because I played $54 in Tri. & $64 in P3's I normally don't play a lot of them. Everyone was a failure, Tot. $ 118.00, difference of making a $40 profit. I blame myself for that. Many low prices yesterday with top G1 races and few real contenders in them. Overall happy with results of this angle. Number of Bets 57 Win Percentage 12.28% ROI -14.21% Wagered $550.00 Payoff $471.86 Profit/Loss -$78.14 Mitch44 |
10-09-2022, 04:16 PM | #98 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Maple Ridge, B.C. Canada
Posts: 3,150
|
Man oh Man it sure looks like you have found a real value finder with this workout angle!
Tough when you put in a great days work and it comes up negative but I'm sure it's just a blip on your radar. Thanks for posting these reports so we can all benefit from your experiences. Mitch you should hook up with Ted and setup a time to do a Webinar so we can see your mastery at work and get some one on one with you live Again thanks for doing this Darryl |
10-10-2022, 08:37 AM | #99 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
|
Yes, Darryl it works. Yes, a blip on my radar. It was a betting mistake on my part otherwise a winning day. I usually don't play Tri and P3 & P4. I do venture into them in the BC races because of the large fields and the payoff justifies the risk reward.
The prices posted and, on another day, I had four winners that were favorites or co-favorites won proves it's a very good angle. A valid angle, factor or concept should have various prices as it proves its validity. As compared to other stuff this still gets good prices because the masses aren't dialed into as of yet. The concept is a simple in that ability follows function. Horses that show improvement in their training can transfer that to improved form in a race. Trainers tend to tip their hand or accidentally show their hand and or serve notice with this move. Most players tend to be a race early or a race late when it comes to form. This is about as close to a trainer or horse telling us how it's doing. They whisper into my ear, and I listen. Ted is ironing out some kinks and doing some testing. Not sure of the next update but it's coming. I suppose a web-bar could be done. I'm not real keen on that because its open to all, they come and depart with everything. Somehow that must have some control to prevent everyone's hard work going down the drain. I have to think about all that. Mitch44 |
10-10-2022, 09:33 AM | #100 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,042
|
Mitch, I for one, sincerely hope you decide to do a webinar. Your vast knowledge would greatly help our members. Think back to when we were floundering and how. fortunately for us, we got the help we needed. I wouldn't be concerned with outsiders since all they have to do is to join P&C and then they can see your post anyway. Since your approach requires some work most of them won't do it anyway.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify |
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