Tdn 9 - 12

[darmar]

Track fast Cloudy with showers
R1 - 3-5-4-2
R2 - 2-7-9-6 LS 5
R3 - 1-2-6-3 LS 5
R4 - 4-2-8-6 LS 7
R5 - 1E-2-6-3
R6 - 1A-3-4-6 LS 2
R7 - 5-2-6-4 LS 7
R8 - 5-4-6-1
Expect changes due to late scratches hopefully before the card starts
Great Skill to all players today
Darryl

[Lt1]

Good luck Skywalker. No late scr only jockey changes
OBI

[Ted Craven]

Congratulations first 2 races so far!

Ted

[darmar]

Thanks T C

[darmar]

New picks in R4 4-2-8-7

[darmar]

Today's recap 8 races capped
2 - #1s 3.40 4.80
5 - #2s 10.80 7.00 7.00 6.80 12.20
0 - #3s
1 - #4s 3.60
2 - DDs 29.00 48.40
6 - Exs 37.80 15.40 20.40 10.80 54.20 12.40
4 - Tris 15.40 21.30 61.70 23.20
1 - Sups 11.13
6 - P3s 21.20 14.20 26.70 58.20 207.80 102.40
2 - P4s 56.60 183.20
1 - P5 464.55
1 - P6 163.74
LS recap
R2 - Ran out
R3 - fin 4th behind #'s 1-4-2(4.29Sup)
R4 - Ran out
R6 - fin 2nd behind #2(26.60Ex)ahead of #4(62.80Tri)&#3(28.00Sup)
R7 - Ran out
A real good day with 7 of 8 in the top 2. R1 ex & DD kept me afloat until I hit the R4-6P3 and the last 2 faces brought home a nice Ex,DD and P3 to cap a good day.
Hope all players did well today. I will be on vacation for 12 days so Great Skill to all.
Darryl

[Lt1]

Outstanding work Skywalker. Enjoy you time away.
Obi

[Ted Craven]

Darryl, as I mentioned in our talk, although I was working on something else, I followed your and Tim's TDN selections today. Really surprised at the prices despite a few scratches and relatively short fields. Indeed, they ran pretty much according to the numbers!

I don't have your betting records, but just doing a post-mortem, including betting into some likely pretty low or minus P3 payoffs in the first half and some low Exacta payoffs too, you were well compensated in the latter half.

I write this for the benefit of those looking on - can a modest track like Thistledowns with modest field sizes still produce nice profits? Today = yes, though I can reasonably see giving back some of those profits later when winners don't run Top 3 (or Top 2!).

Using mostly -
$6 3-horse $1 Exacta boxes,
$9 3x3 or $12 3x4 $1 DDs and
$27 3x3x3 $1 P3 wagers, with your picks I can get -

Exacta ROI = 139%
Double ROI = 161%
Pick3 ROI = 165%

Not bad! Not saying this is how you bet, and I don't need to know. But the method you and Tim use can produce returns like this on a Monday, if one persists.

More than once (OK, more than a dozen times these past few months) I tell people who are struggling with the surplus of RDSS readouts to just follow what you and Tim do here day in and day out. Try to get their readouts to be similar to what your picks show; examine what you'd have do do differently to get what you guys get; see if you could do that analysis consistently. If you just can't get it or if you challenge why to omit or why include a certain horse - JUST ASK THEM! Privately, if you have to or publicly if you want to be authentic about it and ask a question that also benefits others.

I know there's more to drill down into that just the Rx Screen - BUT, if one only started there, oftentimes one can have a profitable day (this advice for folks getting their feet wet in RDSS). Then keep a few models, eliminate a few horses, etc, etc. Suddenly the racing game seems more friendly - even on a Monday

Thanks Darryl - and Tim - for showing that this is possible for anyone really. Have a good trip Darryl (hug a tree for me)!

Ted

[57viking]

Ted , as someone who is only a year in on his RDSS journey , I agree 100% that the Darryl and Tim provide great insight on how to use the tool.

Given that most of the readouts are based on the paceline you select , I would suggest new users search Tim's guidelines for paceline selections. He follows the base best of 3 methodology but with some important small modifications.

One of those was key to hitting Race 7 at TDN yesterday. Horse #5 had his best percept. race by far last race out . As a 6 year old would he be able to repeat this same not previously achieved effort. I used the 3rd line back as the paceline not the first . ( Tim , please correct me but I think your guideline goes something like for horses 5 years and older , don't use the absolute best paceline if nothing changed to make it occur)

Top is the readout using Line #3 .

Bottom is the readout using Line #1.


The 2 and 6 standout as the horses to use with paceline #3 as the selection. The 5 was the favorite and when it got beat by the 2 and the 6 placed, it paid a nice exacta and set up a nice double to the 8th race. It was key to my profit for the day at TDN.

[Lt1]

Hi Jim. You are correct I do not use an older horse' lifetime best simply because they rarely repeat. Notice I didn't say never. You will get beat once in awhile. But this is a % game and I'm usually right 8 -9 times out of 10. Also be careful with any horse that has a pl picked which is out of whack with the other sr showing in the pps even if it isn't a lifetime best. For me that means that sr is greater than 5 pts of any other line showing. Keep in mind a true contender WILL have more then 1 line that keeps it in the mix. I also don't use sly or mdy or sealed trk lines if at all possible even on off tracks, Nothing is right 100% of the time but it works for me. Congrats on winning the race.
Tim