Two Prime Examples - Pace and Cap

shoeless · 03-21-2009, 02:08 PM

Here are 2 prime examples of trainer intent they both ran today the 1st one at Philly and the 2nd at Tampa

shoeless · 03-21-2009, 02:13 PM

The 5 at Philly positives

2 races back trainer ran at 7 5000n1y caught lead top of the stretch and ended up running 2nd

Last race stepped up to mile raised in class speed and quit

Today back to 7 fur 5000n1y

putting on bug to get 5 lbs off

Wins at 12-1

The 12 at Tampa positives

2 race back won at 7 fur 5000n1y

last race ran 6.5 for 6250 OPEN RACE spped to half and quit

today running 6fur for 5000n2y

THAT'S ALL FOLKS

Bill V. · 03-21-2009, 03:45 PM

Hello Jeff

I did not bet this race. I am very happy that you won it
using trainer intent. This race shows me the value in what Howard Sartin
stressed, that is to use the best of the last three races to select pacelines
Doing that using Jimmys third line which is also at $7500nw claiming
the horse ranks 3rd on BLBL and VDC and @12/1 is a sure bet

This was one I'm sorry I did not wager

Bread and Butter Sartin Methodology

Bill

shoeless · 03-21-2009, 04:21 PM

Bill,I must say that trainer intent is only a tool for me,my main handicapping from TPR numbers from Syn 4 which had the horse highly ranked.Jeff

Bill V. · 03-21-2009, 04:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shoeless

Bill,I must say that trainer intent is only a tool for me,my main handicapping from TPR numbers from Syn 4 which had the horse highly ranked.Jeff

Yes Jeff
As we soke about the TPR numbers had the Jimmy rated very high
even before I hid down to the top 5 I knew the Jimmy was strong

GS
Bill

Ted Craven · 03-21-2009, 04:34 PM

Bill,

Why did you choose to use Bentro's last line rather its the best of last 3: its 2nd line? That elevates Bentro to 2nd or 3rd and relegates Jimmy to 4th or 5th. I worked and lost the race.

Jeff, how do you know when to have confidence in the class rise, then drop, and when not to? Did you decide on this horse based on that maneuver alone or together with other analysis? Jimmy's last race fade in a route at 'higher class' should not be too concerning, especially since it's returning in 11 days. Is 7500 CL that much tougher comptetition than 5000 CL at PHA?

Thanks in advance!

Ted

Bill V. · 03-21-2009, 07:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Bill,

Why did you choose to use Bentro's last line rather its the best of last 3: its 2nd line? That elevates Bentro to 2nd or 3rd and relegates Jimmy to 4th or 5th. I worked and lost the race.

Jeff, how do you know when to have confidence in the class rise, then drop, and when not to? Did you decide on this horse based on that maneuver alone or together with other analysis? Jimmy's last race fade in a route at 'higher class' should not be too concerning, especially since it's returning in 11 days. Is 7500 CL that much tougher comptetition than 5000 CL at PHA?

Thanks in advance!

Ted

Hi Ted
here is Benny original lines and Adjusted
with my reason for using line 1 in the notepad

Bill V. · 03-21-2009, 07:27 PM

Ted ,
I did use the 86 - Line 2 for horse # 3
the difference is the 86 was from Pha
and Horse 3 Radium does show a 86 in line 10
but from Monmouth (adjusted)

shoeless · 03-21-2009, 09:24 PM

Bill,Great point on that 1 not using a 5.5 fur race for a 7 fur will in most cases screw up the readouts.Both Purdy and Schmidt advised me at least with TPR to always try and use today's distance.I dont know how you use RDSS but if you would have boxed your top 3 you had the ex for over 100.00.I thought when watching the race the 3 held on for the win but lucky for me the 5 won on the photo.Jeff

shoeless · 03-21-2009, 09:34 PM

Ted,The confidence is there by looking at the racing form for over 30 years and recognizing these patterns.There is a huge difference especially since the 5 did not win that 5000n1y he finished 2nd.Therefore this horse is still eligible for 5000 n1y so why move him up to a tougher race for 7500n1y.I use a manual program so I pick my contenders first then pacelines before I turn the computer program on.I then note any trainer manuevers in the race after that I run my TPR numbers.If a horse does have trainer manuevers but is not in my top 4 or 5 TPR numbers chances are I will not be him to win but will use in exotics.That's it in a nutshell I cant explain how I pick a paceline it just comes natural.Bill,Pino and Richie can attest to that as I went with them to the track a few times and I couldnt explain it to them in person.Jeff

03-21-2009, 02:08 PM	#1
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,151	Two Prime Examples Here are 2 prime examples of trainer intent they both ran today the 1st one at Philly and the 2nd at Tampa Attached Images

03-21-2009, 03:45 PM	#3
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	The best of the last three Hello Jeff I did not bet this race. I am very happy that you won it using trainer intent. This race shows me the value in what Howard Sartin stressed, that is to use the best of the last three races to select pacelines Doing that using Jimmys third line which is also at $7500nw claiming the horse ranks 3rd on BLBL and VDC and @12/1 is a sure bet This was one I'm sorry I did not wager Bread and Butter Sartin Methodology Bill Attached Images

03-21-2009, 04:34 PM	#6
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,854	Bill, Why did you choose to use Bentro's last line rather its the best of last 3: its 2nd line? That elevates Bentro to 2nd or 3rd and relegates Jimmy to 4th or 5th. I worked and lost the race. Jeff, how do you know when to have confidence in the class rise, then drop, and when not to? Did you decide on this horse based on that maneuver alone or together with other analysis? Jimmy's last race fade in a route at 'higher class' should not be too concerning, especially since it's returning in 11 days. Is 7500 CL that much tougher comptetition than 5000 CL at PHA? Thanks in advance! Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™

03-21-2009, 07:27 PM	#8
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	86 Ted , I did use the 86 - Line 2 for horse # 3 the difference is the 86 was from Pha and Horse 3 Radium does show a 86 in line 10 but from Monmouth (adjusted)

03-21-2009, 02:13 PM	#2
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,151	The 5 at Philly positives 2 races back trainer ran at 7 5000n1y caught lead top of the stretch and ended up running 2nd Last race stepped up to mile raised in class speed and quit Today back to 7 fur 5000n1y putting on bug to get 5 lbs off Wins at 12-1 The 12 at Tampa positives 2 race back won at 7 fur 5000n1y last race ran 6.5 for 6250 OPEN RACE spped to half and quit today running 6fur for 5000n2y THAT'S ALL FOLKS

03-21-2009, 04:21 PM	#4
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,151	Bill,I must say that trainer intent is only a tool for me,my main handicapping from TPR numbers from Syn 4 which had the horse highly ranked.Jeff

03-21-2009, 09:24 PM	#9
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,151	Bill,Great point on that 1 not using a 5.5 fur race for a 7 fur will in most cases screw up the readouts.Both Purdy and Schmidt advised me at least with TPR to always try and use today's distance.I dont know how you use RDSS but if you would have boxed your top 3 you had the ex for over 100.00.I thought when watching the race the 3 held on for the win but lucky for me the 5 won on the photo.Jeff

03-21-2009, 09:34 PM	#10
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,151	Ted,The confidence is there by looking at the racing form for over 30 years and recognizing these patterns.There is a huge difference especially since the 5 did not win that 5000n1y he finished 2nd.Therefore this horse is still eligible for 5000 n1y so why move him up to a tougher race for 7500n1y.I use a manual program so I pick my contenders first then pacelines before I turn the computer program on.I then note any trainer manuevers in the race after that I run my TPR numbers.If a horse does have trainer manuevers but is not in my top 4 or 5 TPR numbers chances are I will not be him to win but will use in exotics.That's it in a nutshell I cant explain how I pick a paceline it just comes natural.Bill,Pino and Richie can attest to that as I went with them to the track a few times and I couldnt explain it to them in person.Jeff