Results Of 2nd call BL Tests

[Lt1]

Thought I would share this e mail I sent to a small group of members I work with on a regular basis.
Sat, Jul 24, 2021, 8:31 PM
Hi gang. Been a while since I conducted any surveys. While taking a day off I wonder how effective lengths behind at the 2nd call would be in tossing a horse from win consideration. Since the Bris pps give us their parameters for winning horses, at any dist &trk, I decided to take their 2nd call figure and add 2 more lengths to account for things that happen in a race as well as chart caller errors etc. This gave me a comfortable feeling of not being to ridged. Since I had not done this survey before I decided to track 200 horses rather then my usual 100 races/horses surveys. The tracks concerned were Parx,Bel,Tdn,Del and Sar. This gave me a cross section of top tiered tracks to the small track levels. Here are the results.

Horses Winners Win %
200 24 12
It should be noted that the results of both 100 horse surveys was exactly the same 12/100. I believe this should embolden us to feel strongly about tossing a horse for win consideration which exceed the acceptable limit as per the segment screen.. If playing exacta, tris etc they are still viable for underneath positions. For those who might feel that this isn't a large enough
sample I'll refer you to what Doc always stated based on math theory
"whatever happens in 20 races will happen in 100 races within 2 -3%. I have use this theory with all my test over the years and it stands up well. Again these results are based on my contender and paceline selections. Each of you may want to conduct your own test using your capping approach and the track[s] you play. As for me I am now employing this to toss a horse[s] from win consideration with great confidence.
Tim

[MJS6916]

that's 24 who were outside of the BRIS 2c#+2 lengths ?

the other 176 were within that parameter. Did I read that correctly?

[Lt1]

No all 200 were above the max level but 24 of them won 12%. 176 outside of the max lost
Tim

[MJS6916]

Thanks Tim

[Lt1]

Anytime Mike.
Tim

[buffaloxp]

Tim, Can you show us how to use this info, when come to BLBL screen,the top five is my win contenders, if i can use this toss out 1 or 2 win contenders ,that is more easy for me to pick the winner

thank you
raymond

[Mitch44]

Very nice data Tim, thanks for sharing. Also eliminates part of track profile for those who think they need it. Just simply check out the Bris Summary to find the normal parameters.

Mitch44

[Lt1]

Thanks Mitch.
Tim

[Lt1]

Good morning Ray. I do my final eliminations from the RX screen but if you all you have is BL/BL that's ok. First, at this point, I have established if all my contenders have other defects which may cause me to demote them. For the purpose of answering your question
I will stipulate that all do. Usually the 5th tiered is already in my secondary group by now so you are only dealing with the top 4 tiered horses. Ok now let's say this a 6f race at Parx which I have established that 3.5 is the most you can be behind at the 2c to win. Simply go to the segment screen and see the number of lengths behind the program projects them to be at the 2c. Lets say 1,3,4 are within 3.5 but the #2 is 4.5 behind. All other things being equal I would list my final WIN contenders as 1=3=4=2. Remember the 2 is still a viable underneath horse for exs & tris. One other point DON'T be too ridged. Let's say that 2 was 3.7or 3,8 behind at the 2c. In this case I will leave it in place. There are many times you WILL see this. Some common sense must be used. I would hate to lose a race because I tossed a horse for a .03 difference. Hope this answered your question.
Tim

[buffaloxp]

Thanks Tim, i use BLBL screen,because some time the top 4 of BLBL horse not same as RX top 4, you say 6f race in segment screen SC is 3.5,what about 7f,8f,9f,10f number,

thank you
raymond