Rachel Alexandra Returns - Pace and Cap

Ted Craven · 03-08-2010, 09:49 PM

Here's hoping for another season of courageous racing by a filly who has raised the level of interest in our sport like no other in years. Safe trips, and strong competition!

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Today's workout:

Ted

barb craven · 03-09-2010, 06:43 AM

That's my girl!

Ted Craven · 03-12-2010, 11:00 AM

...

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raceman5 · 03-12-2010, 11:40 AM

hi ted,

just curious as to why u used a sy line for Rachael?

Bob

Ted Craven · 03-12-2010, 03:10 PM

Bob,

It was pretty much an automated approach for each horse: best of the last 3 Total Energy/Perceptor Total for each horse. Rachel's 2nd line was not abnormally fast or slow DTV so the fact of sloppy seemed inconsequential.

If you use the last line, that BL/BL ranks her 2nd by a bit (thus inconsequential re wager decision); if you use the 3rd line, she's tops by a bit again (but that fast 17 DTV means you're accepting a bit DTV adjustment slower; all things being possible, neutral DTVs make me feel more comfortable: e.g. -6 ... +6 or so)

Using pretty much any of her lines with Total Energy in the range of 165-ish is going to put her on top or tied with Zardana, which still is not enough in my mind to prefer Zardana to win. Maybe 2 chances to cash on Place (for Zardana...).

Anyway, that's my reasoning. Not sure if this is a betting race, though!

Ted

Ted Craven · 03-13-2010, 06:42 PM

An upset

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Charlie D · 03-13-2010, 07:03 PM

Looks like RDSS BL/BL had it spot on

Rachel - underlay - Zardana THE bet

chris · 03-13-2010, 11:59 PM

Only in a handicapping sense, not so as a parimutual event. If Rachael was to be defeated, then this was the race. And only one horse in this field has credentials to do it. That is assuming one decides to bet the race.

Reinforcing my decision was the "trainer" talk that preceeded the race, in this case her trainer lamenting the fact that they had missed some training due to all the rain in New Orleans this winter, that coupled with their earlier indecision about running in the Apple Blossom Stakes raised some interesting questions for me. And remember it was their choice not to participate in last years Breeders Cup, again accompanied with a plausable rationale. That was a remarkeable record Rachael compiled last year, but I believe it came at a price.

This may be the time to bet against her; don't mortgage the homestead but do bet a few dollars.

COMPLETED: 69190360368767 FG #10 $1 Trifecta 3,WT,2,WT,1,4,5 $ 3.00 $ 71.40 + $ 68.40

Three dollars will get you $68.40 is O.K.

Regards,

Chris

03-09-2010, 06:43 AM	#2
barb craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Bobcaygeon,On,Canada Posts: 1,308	That's my girl! __________________ Listen...Learn...Stay Safe.

03-12-2010, 11:00 AM	#3
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,854	... __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™

03-12-2010, 11:40 AM	#4
raceman5 Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Largo Fl. Posts: 2,295	line hi ted, just curious as to why u used a sy line for Rachael? Bob

03-12-2010, 03:10 PM	#5
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,854	Bob, It was pretty much an automated approach for each horse: best of the last 3 Total Energy/Perceptor Total for each horse. Rachel's 2nd line was not abnormally fast or slow DTV so the fact of sloppy seemed inconsequential. If you use the last line, that BL/BL ranks her 2nd by a bit (thus inconsequential re wager decision); if you use the 3rd line, she's tops by a bit again (but that fast 17 DTV means you're accepting a bit DTV adjustment slower; all things being possible, neutral DTVs make me feel more comfortable: e.g. -6 ... +6 or so) Using pretty much any of her lines with Total Energy in the range of 165-ish is going to put her on top or tied with Zardana, which still is not enough in my mind to prefer Zardana to win. Maybe 2 chances to cash on Place (for Zardana...). Anyway, that's my reasoning. Not sure if this is a betting race, though! Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 03-12-2010 at 03:12 PM.

03-13-2010, 06:42 PM	#6
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,854	An upset __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™

03-08-2010, 09:49 PM	#1
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,854	Rachel Alexandra Returns Here's hoping for another season of courageous racing by a filly who has raised the level of interest in our sport like no other in years. Safe trips, and strong competition! Today's workout: Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™

03-13-2010, 07:03 PM	#7
Charlie D Match Up Apprentice Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,105	Looks like RDSS BL/BL had it spot on Rachel - underlay - Zardana THE bet __________________ "To me, The Match Up supercedes everything"

03-13-2010, 11:59 PM	#8
chris Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Richfield, MN Posts: 182	Upset? Only in a handicapping sense, not so as a parimutual event. If Rachael was to be defeated, then this was the race. And only one horse in this field has credentials to do it. That is assuming one decides to bet the race. Reinforcing my decision was the "trainer" talk that preceeded the race, in this case her trainer lamenting the fact that they had missed some training due to all the rain in New Orleans this winter, that coupled with their earlier indecision about running in the Apple Blossom Stakes raised some interesting questions for me. And remember it was their choice not to participate in last years Breeders Cup, again accompanied with a plausable rationale. That was a remarkeable record Rachael compiled last year, but I believe it came at a price. This may be the time to bet against her; don't mortgage the homestead but do bet a few dollars. COMPLETED: 69190360368767 FG #10 $1 Trifecta 3,WT,2,WT,1,4,5 $ 3.00 $ 71.40 + $ 68.40 Three dollars will get you $68.40 is O.K. Regards, Chris

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