B/r t.t. #2 (10/25 wo r#7)

[viikinki]

Pete, and others also, do you determine the running style based on WINs or from what position he generally runs?

HAT said in the audio tapes to ask "how does this horse like to WIN?" but for example #1 won with a line 3-3-1-1 BUT if we forget that one, the closest 1st call was 6th and usually >9th.

[PeteC]

Mowens33: Good job on two fronts:
1) Projecting pace. You projected a ½ mile time of 48, which will work VERY well in this race. With no clear, on the lead line to use for our pace, it is perfectly okay to find a horse who was up close to the pace in its last race. Then we use the pace of that race - WITHOUT adjusting for BL’s…that’s straight from Richie’s / Jim’s guidelines.

2) Running Styles: You have the winner in the OTE group which you designated as the winning style today. With this method you throw out the whole other group, so proper designation is obviously critical!

Now, here’s what I suggest for you…Take your ½ mile (48) and go through the OTE runners, one at a time, and zoom in on races against a similar (within 1 tick) or faster pace (so 48 1/5 or faster). Which runners show they can win or finish VERY close (within a length or so) in those races? Those are your final contenders.

Vderdak: You also had the winner in your winning group. Not sure about your projected pace, but you looked at the 48 lines for your two win contenders. Check to see if/how often the 5 can run well against that pace or faster. I’ve often eliminated OTE runners, ignoring previous power lines, when they have been unsuccessful in their last or recent starts against SLOWER paces. A slow pace CAN be a viable reason to ignore that line because the horse may be out of position and/or up against it in terms of the race shape.

Don’tsaydon’t: WELCOME! No worries about your format, it was very clear. Regarding your work on this race, would the late scratches change your E/OTE call? With the 11 out, it looks like you might have used the 13 to project the pace. When you use a horse who was close, but not on the lead, do not add beaten lengths to adjust the time. Just use the pace of race for your projection. Line 2 of the 13 horse (48) is the same pace for Line 1 of the 12 horse. If you use that pace, go through the process I mentioned for Mowens….Keep practicing and asking questions!

Capcondo: Nice and thorough work as always. With the scratch you get the winner in your final 3 in a competitive race. Hope you’ve been hitting them hard at TuP!! I will be jumping back in there once the season progresses a little bit.

Chuck: As with the others, nice job getting the 5 in your winning OTE group. Using your 48.8 projected pace, it looks like the only runners who have run well against that pace or faster are the 3,5,12 and 13. From there I would focus on the line or lines where they won or finished very close against that pace or faster. From those lines you can focus in on power moves, position, etc. RDSS is great for that! I may have to get that for myself sometime soon J

Pook: Nice job, again. Now to your question. Yes, there are DEFINITELY times where the winner runs differently than we expected. So, yes, our job is to match the best we can off of the PP’s. They won’t make you give the money back J Now, in this race, you are right, the winner’s prior wins were from 5th and 6th position. Today’s position will be predicated upon the PACE and the styles/speeds of the other runners. You projected 49.6 for your half-mile time. Its last race, when it was in 3rd, the pace was a much slower 50.8!! Most of its prior races against today’s pace or faster, were from further back. But no worries, your mind’s eye saw something in that horse for today’s race that was on the money. From there, it sounds like the computer pointed you in the right direction.

Viikinki: To determine running style, I initially look at all lines. When I start matching contenders I pay more attention to races against today’s pace or faster where it won or finished VERY close. For the 1 horse, its wins/very close finishes were lines 2,4 and 10. This horse looks to generally run from further back than 3rd. That line seems like the outlier, especially since it was only a 6 horse field and the pace was slow. Does that help?


Great job again everyone…I hope this gives some help and direction toward mastering the basic process, which some of you are clearly way beyond. Feel free to give me suggestions on how to help you specifically if you like. Also, if there are favorite tracks to match, let me know, and I’ll try to find a race from there….

[The Pook]

Hi Pete,

I have read that Jim Bradshaw and Richie P did or do not use the matchup on anything other than fast tracks. Do you match-up on turf or off tracks? I have good results on turf but I find off tracks very challenging. What is your take on this?

Thanks
The Pook

[viikinki]

Pook, where did you read that? I always believed Jim match-upped all kinds of races.

[The Pook]

viikinki, I read it on this site where Jim and Richie P are talking about the Minds Eye and Voodoo. I can't seem to remember which thread and I can't find it to point you in the right direction. If you poke around where those two are talking about the above I'm sure you will find it.

Pook

[The Pook]

viikinki here you go

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...63&postcount=9

Pook

[viikinki]

Thanks!

[PeteC]

Originally Posted by The Pook

Hi Pete,

I have read that Jim Bradshaw and Richie P did or do not use the matchup on anything other than fast tracks. Do you match-up on turf or off tracks? I have good results on turf but I find off tracks very challenging. What is your take on this?

Thanks
The Pook

Hi Pook-

Yes, I remember that post from Richie too. It says he never did them live or for teaching purposes (races on off tracks, that is). So, I'm not sure, but maybe we could assume, that he felt fast tracks were more consistent at least to some degree. I'll let others who worked with him directly answer that one.

As for their own matching, I know for a fact that Richie posted races for teaching purposes, after the fact, that had a sloppy or off track. There were certainly turf races too. Those can be found in the Match-Up discussion area still today.

My understanding of The Hat was that he liked to match-up anything and everything! Having said that, I guess my assumption is that the fast track idea was just for live teaching examples.

For my matching, I certainly like turf races. For off tracks, I match them until I see a couple of results that go way against my matching. That is enough of an indicator to me that today's conditions are just not conducive to my matching.

Pete

[Mark]

A number of times in the threads of the Hat Check Blog Richie mentions that "The Hat" handicaps every race regardless of distance or surface the same way. Following this
advise will reduce the errors and preconceptions that plague the handicapper. You have to find the horse or horses that will take the lead or contest the lead and project the pace from their running lines. In races that have recent wire to wire wins or close finishes especially in their last race, this is much easier. In Paceless races without clear front runners it is more difficult. I tend to put less faith in FPLR if it is from a S horse. I like to look at each E or EP and pick a line that represents his ability at to day's distance
structure and surface. Using this approach you automatically can see if there is going to be a single Early or the degree of early contention which will then help you in your
variegation.
RDSS2 selects Running Style more based on Energy Distribution than on the individual horses desired position at the 1st call. Many times it gets it right but not always. So you
have to correct these. The Running Style is determined by the 1st call position from which the horse wins or runs very close at today's distance structure and surface. Most cheaper horses are one dimensional but you will always find horse that used to run one way but now run differently. In the case of the #5 in this 3rd and 9th back wins he ran from the 6th and 5th position respectively. I settled on the last line for the #12 which was a tandem with the #13's second back in which he took the lead before the 2nd call. You always have to pay attention to horses down inside and also coming from the outside post positions. Horses breaking from the inside post positions have to send or risk being trapped and shuffled back by horses coming over on them into the first turn. As well horses from the outside posts have to send if they want to run close to lead or they risk running wide around the turn often costing them valuable ground. These post positions don't effect S horses because they are going to drop back anyway and will generally have to circle the field turning for home or getting very lucky and having the rail open up for their sustained run. Sometimes they can weave their way through the pack when the field is not going to be bunched up.
Horses have preferences for racing surfaces. Turf horses excel when running on turf whether it has something to do with hoof shape or stride length. They may run well on synthetic surfaces but not always. Horses that run well on synthetic surfaces particularly in route races rarely run well on dirt and vice versa. Although Mr Bradshaw advised Richie that you could substitue a sythetic line for a turf line in absense of a turf race in the past performances it generally makes sense that a horse's connections are going to run their horse where he stands the best chance of earning prize money. So in evaluating Woodbine races you really have to focus in on Woodbine races or other synthetic tracks. Unless a horse has demonstrated a proficiency on both surfaces you are much better off evaluating the horse off a like surface. Synthetic surfaces tend to demand much more energy from early running horses generally. Early speed duels extract a huge energy toll. They tend to benefit later running horses who do not expend a large percentage of their energy early. So while we know that Sustained runners have to circle the field and suffer large ground loss that is somewhat offset by the energy demands of the synthetic surfaces as Early horses will decelerate much more rapidly than on a dirt surface.
Once you have your projected pace you examine each horse for his POWER LINES at today's distance structure and surface regardless of where that line may be in the past performances. If the line is deep you have to answer the questions: 1. is this the same horse? 2. Has he changed his running style and become a slow horse? 3. for the Early runners, can he still get on top of his fractions? If you can't justify the use of that deep paceline then you have to find something more current or throw the horse out. Of course the POWER LINE has to be competitive with today' projected pace.
Now make the call: Early or OTE. Eliminate all the horses from the other running group and match your final contenders.
While this is a simplified version if you do the same thing in every race you handicap, over time you will start to make the correct calls more and more often. Difficult form
questions will become clearer and you will gain confidence in the repeated use of your analysis.

[Ryan.p.coli]

Would like to see some of these expect matchers walk through their process in some of the BC races coming this weekend.