Prx 8 Sept.21

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by Mitch44

BTW on the # 11 I used line 5

I thought the # 4 in the 7th race and the 11 in the 9th were the best prospects for a price on this card. I actually thought the #11 odds would go up and pay more from my analysis.

You need to use a consistent approach for contenders and in picking Pace Lines.

Mitch44

I agree. That's something I am having to adjust from my past.. trust the pace lines and contenders consistently chosen. If the pace line is wrong, the methodology in selecting it is wrong.

[Mitch44]

" If the pace line is wrong, the methodology in selecting it is wrong." You are correct ranch. We can all make a mistake in selecting a line. What we need to do is limit the mistakes and that can be done with a consistent procedure. I do that by using Sartin guidelines of select the line that's best of last 3 at a comparable distance and surface. Also having a consistent procedure gets us over bad habits and onto positive ones.

Like everything in racing those guidelines won't cover every situation and some common sense needs to go with it. Additionally all losses don't come from bad lines, sometimes they can out run their numbers with a new top. Or not run to their numbers due to form.

Mitch44

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by Mitch44

" If the pace line is wrong, the methodology in selecting it is wrong." You are correct ranch. We can all make a mistake in selecting a line. What we need to do is limit the mistakes and that can be done with a consistent procedure. I do that by using Sartin guidelines of select the line that's best of last 3 at a comparable distance and surface. Also having a consistent procedure gets us over bad habits and onto positive ones.

Like everything in racing those guidelines won't cover every situation and some common sense needs to go with it. Additionally all losses don't come from bad lines, sometimes they can out run their numbers with a new top. Or not run to their numbers due to form.

Mitch44

I agree. Some things I have found can sometimes lead to a poor line selection... missing that there is an extreme speed variant, using a line where the horse finished more than 7.75 lengths behind, using a line where the horse's pace numbers are atypical. I believe a selected line CAN violate these guidelines, but these guidelines are a good reason to review the line selection and possibly the process that allowed arriving at a poor line.

Other things a good line cannot overcome... traffic problems, a bad ride from the jockey (sometimes based on trainer instructions), horse mental issues such as jumping a shadow or tossing the jock. Then there's stepping on an object on the track (Ruffian stepped on a shoe). I've even seen animals run or fly into horses... I saw a huge goose fly into a running horse. Trainers can alter the efficiency of a horse through better or worse feed, veterinarian care and work. And, whether anyone wants to acknowledge it or not, there's the drug factor. Some horses (and jockeys) are blind in one eye and it makes a difference which post position they have.

But math tells us that we just have to be right frequently enough to overcome any of the variables. There are people who consistently make a long-term profit.

[Mitch44]

There no doubt that reviewing the lines the program selects will get more winners. Abnormal variants can destroy readouts, player beware.

There are some things just completely out of our control as a player. The ride given is one, jockey mistake or riding to instructions? At times I can tell the first 1/4 of a mile when the jock is riding it completely against it best Style & ESP. Drugs are another.

My 11 horse won by a nose and yesterday a longer price horse of mine lost by a nose, to one of the worse horses in the field at KD. In another my 3 horse had to take up sharply while making move inside of stretch and ran up on the heels of a horse. Lost all momentum, that takes at least 1 second and at 6 F that's 6 lengths it lost.

One has to quickly delete these bad beats etc. out of your mind or it'll effect the next race or the rest of the card. In a CP when you delete its gone quickly and forever. Harder with the human brain but it has to be trained to do so for future success.

Remember that drugs, jocks, inept trainers and sharp trainers darkening form effects everyone. Therefore its a level playing field. If that can't be accepted than the player needs to find another game or hobby.

What can we do about it? Well my 3 horse taken up sharply went into my stable. My 7 horses in the 8th of this posted card was in my stable and I had that nice DD and P-3 that paid very well. The two horse bet smooths out some of these problems and gives us an edge over the one horse bettor. Its not a macho thing about getting a race down to 3 horses and scratching or hiding the rest or only being a one horse bettor, its about winning money. Get over a bad beat and move on, bitching won't change a Stewarts decision etc. Do all your bitching in a couple minutes and get over it. After say 5 minutes you can't get over it, well Houston we have a problem. The road to profits are in the future not in the past. That goes for happiness in life also, we can't change the past, but we can the future.

Lastly try to stay out of bad situations, if you can't deal with Stretch Outs, layoff horses , repeaters etc. consider them as unknown factors. You can't be a one trick pony in this game, no different that a Major League Pitcher only having a fast ball. Either past the race or just make a fun bet.

Putting up picks that started this thread I passed a race because too many horses were legit contenders. All 6 horses in the race could have won and I stated that fact in my post, even the public was confused and they all went off under 5-1. Why play a race like that when we can find one with only 3 contenders and play 2 out of those three. Most don't spend their time on analyzing or accessing horses, so for sure they don't put the race in context or access the race. Pass races with too many legit contenders. Its not about quantity of races, it about quality.

Mitch44