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2016 Match4Cash Challenges Are You Up 4 It?

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Old 02-07-2016, 03:50 PM   #21
lone speed
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Join Date: Nov 2011
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Craven View Post
Result:

Attachment 39525

FWIW, the winner was no prize at EVEN odds, and, IMO, not a good test of any kind of handicapping methodology, least of all the Matchup. Agreed it was hard to foresee the final odds from the Morning Line (for me).

However, the Place horse #3 Naughty Scottie is JUST the kind of horse we NEED to be able to see, and CAN see quite clearly. The $2 Exacta of $44.60 (let alone the $6.00 Place price) gives us a reason to still play races like this when the public agrees completely with most people's handicapping analysis.
Agreed


I need only make reference to the #1 Late rating AND the Binder Improver (so-called, affectionately) #1 rank in the VDC column for the #3 horse. These are horses who probably will not win, but whose counter-energy, or Late influenced energy (the VDC component) may put it in the money and usually at a good price. Bill V ('Binder') observed this phenomena long ago of a VDC rating NOT in the top 3 or so BLBL (i.e. a rating out of order with the BLBL rank). As it was, it nearly caught up to winner, losing by only a neck.

Race within a race. The early pace contenders exhausted each others' energy fighting the early pace while the #1 late pace ranking horse lags far behind the early pace battle and just bids its time and swoops into contention after the dust clears and makes an deceiving run in catching the front runner at the wire. This closer is inferior in energy ability and Jim Bradshaw talked many times about this false contender in future rematch between the horse that can fight the early pace and last until the finish line versus the horse who stays far away from the early pace battle and makes a late run.

Regarding separating contenders by "total energy rankings" as in top 4 or top 5; While this may be a fast and an easy way of determining true contenders of a match-up: But is it Optimal???? Is this the best way to use Sartin programs or rankings??? If there are two parts of a race match-up and if the counter-energy horse is usually lower in total energy but ranked higher in late pace or hidden energy, what is the best way to incorporate the rankings to truly reflect the match-up of a given race.....Doc stressed in his "55% solution to exactas as the top contender with the number one hidden energy horse and the betting favorite in the race.. Some like Lou Sosa begged to differ from their own records....

Maybe, it's true to isolate the top contender with the true number #1 ranked hidden energy horse and/or number #1 late pace ranked horse....or there are those who are content to find the winner of the match-up and move on....


I appreciate that the Matchup is (or has been explained in the past) as primarily a Win horse approach - and maybe so, in Jim Bradshaw's hands, and others'. But in the pari-mutuel trenches, we often need to see beyond the Win position, or pass races like this.

Well said, Ted...as you know I have never been a fan of B/L rankings but only as a tool as it represents what was Sartin numbers rankings(?) even though Mark Cramer made some interesting valid presentations in its validity towards making profits from the B/L rankings.

Attachment 39524

Congratulations to all who analysed their way to this horse!

Ted
I am throwing wood into the fire pit for discussion....
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Old 02-07-2016, 05:38 PM   #22
The Pook
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Join Date: Feb 2014
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"or there are those who are content to find the winner of the match-up and move on...."

This is the case here. We are only looking for the winner. Tim when looking for a race to post was looking, as us posters all do, for potential value and an interesting matchup. Before scratches in a 13 horse field the 12 was ML favourite at 4-1. I would have picked the same race. 12 was certainly not a 1-1 bet. But who knew. He was 2-1 a minute before post and didn't look to be a sudden 1-1 proposition.

Some of these races end up like duds no matter how much you look. It takes a bit of effort to find appropriate candidates and they don't always work out.

I had it down to 2,3 and 12 OTE. Who is the best. The 12 beat both 2 and 3 while running closer to the pace than them. The 12. Done. It was all fairly predictive and 12 did it again. But most everybody saw it.

Next.

Pook
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