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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race' |
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09-02-2017, 06:38 PM | #11 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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Quote:
Naturally, the contenders and pacelines were chosen in the same way as I do in every race I have ever posted. The #1 and #8 horses were scratched. Here is a link to that race. http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11273
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
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09-02-2017, 06:41 PM | #12 |
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the rest of the screen shots
The rest of the screen shots
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
09-02-2017, 07:09 PM | #13 |
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a closer look at the winner
Here is a closer look at the winner, #7
I have drawn a black line through all the races that are not comparable due to either distance, surface and/or class. That left me with one usable line in the last 90 days, line 2. It is a "+" race. When you clear out all the non comparable races the horse doesn't look bad at all.
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
09-02-2017, 07:11 PM | #14 |
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questions
If you have questions let me know.
Playing two horses I don't see how the winner could not have been one of them.
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
09-02-2017, 10:02 PM | #15 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Quote:
Hi FTL Thank you for your demo I have to laugh when I read your comment "Playing two horses I don't see how the winner could not have been one of them." Well, one way is to be distracted and trying to hand enter while nervously sitting in an airport waiting to fly home. Thanks for posting the link to the race Richie posted for me on the 17th I had to do the race with my little netbook computer cause I did not want to pack and travel with my good laptop, The netbook has RDSS in it but it's so underpowered with no memory I can't use it, therefore I have to hand enter into old dos programs. When I landed that night I was able to download again into one of my old laptops which I took to Saratoga from my dad's house, Anyway If you look at my readouts do you notice something? Where is the winning horse ? I simply forgot to type in its pace line As you noted And I agree, Line 2 is the line to use. I excused line 1 for too being too high class. And also wacky Los Al Let's see how Entropy handles the race with a line for horse 7 and no 1 or 8 since they were scratched My lines The Entropy sort screen Entropy sort I will leave the top 4 ( low sort scores) and make sure to include the #1 EP horse so out goes horse 3 and 6 Now to thoromation As what tends to happen Thoromation has a cluster for the second win position So I go to the stop action screens The first stop action screen to come up indicates how the race is variegated Sustained The SP screen comes up and the winner # 7 wins the race |
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09-02-2017, 11:34 PM | #16 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,153
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FTL
First of all thanks very much for posting those screen shots What I would like to ask is how would you determine what horses to play from them. Bill Thanks for yours as well I really learn quite a bit from both of you and very much appreciate the help Jeff |
09-03-2017, 12:55 AM | #17 | |
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Quote:
However, before I answer the question there is something you can do for me. In post#9 of this thread, Bill V said the following;”Jeff is a very good user of Energy He sends me good reports all the time,” So, on that basis I would like you to tell me how you would go about selecting the two horses to bet based on the readouts I posted. I think I’ll be able to better answer your question once I see how you would approach it.
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
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09-03-2017, 12:30 PM | #18 |
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,153
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FTL
Bill is very kind but as I do hit from time to time I am really not that good with the program. Another thing I do is not trust the readouts when a longshot appears on top. I find that the sort screen gets the most winners for me so I go to that which would have led me to the 3 and 5.I really don't know how to correlate the other readouts with it. I do change the variegate as it says in the manual if the top MUV horse is not the energizer. Jeff |
09-04-2017, 02:58 PM | #19 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Pacelines
Here is race 10 from Parx today 9/4/17 happy labor day
Horse 1 Edfitzatmahle 3.5/1 Sus Press 2 for 24 Line 2 is a + paceline at Parx 51 days ago. I excused line 1 Its only 5 furlongs and from Penn so I feel line 2 is more comparable Horse 2.Icona 15/1 1 for 8 Sustained 3 of last 4 races have been routes. It ran well in line 4 at 1 mile at Santa Anita in an open 625 claimer Its first two tries at parx have been dismal, so I will look elsewhere Horse 3. Hot Spice Girl 5/2 2 for 20 Early Presser Line 2 and 3 are plus lines. I will use line 3 since line 2 has is from an off track with a -34 dtv. Horse 4. Dusty Street 5/1 2 for 32. Sustained line 1 s a plus paceline 16 days ago Horse 5. Royal Stage 12/1 2 for 35 No form No usable lines has not run a plus race in its last 7 tries against the same class as today's race Horse 6. Elle Va 15/1 2 for 18 Early Line 2 is a (+) lines 1 and 3 are from turf races I will rate line 2 as this one looks to set the early pace Horse 7 She's a Dandy Lion 15/1 2 for 9 Early Presser Been away for 112 days line 1 is a (+) against this same class No works in the last 26 days Horse 8 Pink Satin N Lace 6/1 2 for 13 Presser Line 1 is a plus paceline against today's class level. Line 1 is the first race back after a 97 day lay off Horse 9 Ribot Star 5/1 2 for 21 Sustained He made a big move in the 3rd fraction in line 1, but he shows no recent plus races I will go with the 8 and 3 Horse 1 and 4 rate well but have such poor records I might use them underneath the 3 and 8 Good Skill |
09-04-2017, 03:17 PM | #20 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,212
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Hi Bill happy labor day. My contenders are 3-1-9-4-8. As always price will determine the bets if any.
Tim
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