Belmont 8th - 6/22/13

[Jeebs]

Condition: 6F Dirt, Optional Claiming 62.5k - 3up n2x or n3L or tag

Scratches: 1A, 7, 10

#1 - Uncle T Seven - 2nd off claim, + effort in NYB stake at FL at today's distance. Previous good efforts at BEL last year, including a well-beaten 2nd to NYB superstar Saginaw inheriting the early running by default. Preferred Run Style = Sustained/Presser.

#2 - N. F.'s Destiny - No doubt about the running style here: Early or bust. + lines in last 9 of 10 efforts, including an (+) effort over 7F at AQU. Last out was a + effort over 6 1/2F, yielding in the final 1/2 furlong. Contention here will be dependent on today's matchup.

#3 - Wee Freudian - 2nd off L/O, a pressing + effort in tandem with the #2 on 6/2 at 32-1, a departure from this horse's usual placement in the rear half of fields, although to his credit, he kept close enough to the pace that he never loses contact. Could this change in style be a sign of things to come? Again, the matchup will tell a story here.

#4 - Night Maneuver - 1st off 63-day L/O. Despite the respite, I feel comfortable with choosing a paceline here as this one without fail is a true presser. The most recent effort at 7F was a (+) race, while his race 2 back at 6F was a pressing + effort. Previous BEL form mirrors his preferred style and he usually runs his race.

#5 - Power World - 1st off 329-day L/O. No paceline. n1x win at BEL last year (5/6/12) was a pressing effort going 6 1/2F. Maiden win at 4 1/2F at 2 was from out of the clouds. The two most recent races prior to the long layoff were ( ) lines, never seriously challenging at any call. Could be short price based on trainer and quality of competition. Preferred Run Style = Presser/Unknown

#6 - Inflation Target - Shows a hard-fought + effort on an off-going at 7F here at BEL last out 2nd off the L/O. Versatile runner has several + races attacking the pace or coming from the rear of the field. The matchup will paint his picture. Preferred Run Style = Sustained/Presser

#8 - Vexor - 1st off 52-day L/O. Last two outs before the layoffs were a + E/P effort over this BEL surface/distance and an Early (+) outing at AQU. Doesn't always run his race and off layoffs, as shown vulnerability. Having said that, I would select a line here as he will probably have an impact on the early segment of the race.

#9 - Notmyfirstime - 2nd off L/O. Open n1x win at BEL last out was attacking the Early. His NYB n1x win last year over this same track/distance was also a pressing effort. He's won as an Early before, but seems likely to play the role of attacker here. Preferred Run Style = Presser

Projected Pace: Using BEL races, N. F.'s Destiny's pace can go 22.2 - 45.0 - 1:09.0 today.

Pacelines and Match-Ups:
#1 - Line #1 as a sustained. Does not match-up to today's pace as a Win candidate. A horse that appears likely to fill the bottom of tickets but that's about it.
#2 - Line #1 - Pacesetter.
#3 - Line #1 - Surprise pressing effort last out in tandem with the speed matches well here.
#4 - Line #2 - Presser. AQU + race at 6F matches well today.
#5 - NL (329-day L/O) - Likely underlay, and no reliable run style/line to match.
#6 - Line #5 - Last fast track BEL line at distance. Does not match-up to the pace here. Non-contender.
#8 - Line #1 - Nothing wrong with that line or even Line #3 at AQU inner except that those + races were slower final times than today's projected pace. Will press early but will crack late. Non-contender.
#9 - Line #1 - Legitimate presser that matches up well with today's pace.

Summary: N. F.'s Destiny is the early runner here, but will have plenty of company attacking his pace. With no viable late runner here, it will come down to energy distribution, and the #9 seems to distribute that better than the other pressers. Would be my choice here. Question is: do you take 9/5?

[Jeebs]

Post-Hoc analysis:

I kind of rushed my summary as it was creeping close to post time. I was correct that energy distribution was the key to this race, but I keyed on the wrong horse. Take a look at these Val4 screenshots. The winner, #4 Night Maneuver, ranks 3rd in TE and TPP, but above all, is the top TT runner. With the BL/BL a generous 3-1 and off odds a generous 7.30-1, this horse should have been pounded. Even #3 Wee Freudian, the 3rd place runner, ranking 2nd in TE and TPP and 2-1 on the BL/BL was a probable overlay at 8-1 off odds. In short, the Top 3 TE/TPP and BL/BL runners finished 2-3-1, with the spread of the other runners not even close. This was a "crush" race IMO, and could have netted a $66 exacta and $233 triple. Thoughts?

[Dorianmode]

Interesting, I ended up with those 3 also. Using "best perceptor" as the pace line this is what RDSS looked like.
Looked like a redo of the tanden between the two and the 4 from 4/13, to me.

Belmont 9 was even more fun ... I'll post in the "value" thread.
There must have been "something in the water" in NY today .. ??

[Jeebs]

Originally Posted by Dorianmode

Interesting, I ended up with those 3 also. Using "best perceptor" as the pace line this is what RDSS looked like.
Looked like a redo of the tandem between the two and the 4 from 4/20, to me.

I agree with you, Dorian that the 4/20 tandem was usable. My big thing with #2 was that he had a recent + effort over the very BEL surface that he was racing on, and generally prefer a race over today's track over a similar effort on another. Combined with the match-up, the presence of multiple pressing styles in the field made it probable that the speed wouldn't hold. As it turned out, #2 was able to shake clear with really no pressure, but he shot his crackers late off of that 44.3 half time. As you said, it looked like "one of 'dem days" at Big Sandy yesterday...

[vderdak]

I boxed the 2,4,5 for the exacta. The #4 was 3/8 at the exact distance and 2/3 at belmont, for the price, a good wager value, the #3 was only 1/8 at the distance, looked like a double top on speed figures so I threw out, the #2 was speed of the speed and made all other E horses a toss out, the #5 I threw in for a freshning race off the layoff, any horse which has won his first out shows they can win off the layoff so just covering my bases with him, all others were a toss out for me on the combination of class, pace, and speed.

[chris]

2013-06-22 13:49:06 Bet* Belmont 8 Superfecta 2+4+9/2+4+5+9/3/2+4+5+6+9

My Rdss2 readouts are comparable to those already posted so I didn't put them up, nor did I include the money amounts bet and won, however a $1.00 superfecta bet, structured the way I bet it cost $27.00 dollars and returned $652.00, I believe those numbers are correct. Bet it in 50 cent increments and you avoid taxes.

Rather than trying to determine which of the speed horse would dominate and possibly discourage the chasers, I instead keyed the #3 in the third hole, a horse who runs third more often than he wins, and he obliged. This is an example of the race informing the bet. Had there not been a#3 in the race, I would have probably bet an exacta, but then again who knows.

Regards,
chris