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Old 06-28-2020, 11:02 PM   #1
Discut12
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RDSS Adjustment Tab

Hello,

I am a new user. I previously developed a spreadsheet based on Brohamers pace handicapping. I understand most things in this program, except the adjustment screen. I assumed it was making track equalization and daily variant adjustments, but I am seeing either no adjustment or bigger than expected adjustments. Any thoughts?
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Old 06-29-2020, 11:33 AM   #2
gandalf380
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first thing I would check is the configuration screen to verify the adjustments are set up the way you want.
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Old 06-29-2020, 11:58 PM   #3
Discut12
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Thanks G380!!

I am still trying to figure out track to track equalization. Ex: I am betting a 8F race at MNR. I like a shipper from Laurel and his last paceline time was 138.2. Hypothetically, the 10k par for Laurel is 136 and at Mountaineer 139. Do I add 3 seconds to the Laurel shipper to make his time 141.2? Too much?
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Old 06-30-2020, 07:39 AM   #4
Mitch44
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Discut12 you won't actually see the adjustments made by the RDSS program however all adjustments are reflected within the FPS numbers and within all factors.


I would suggest you use the recommended setting, they are very good. The only exception would be to use a line with a very high variant(slow) or a very low variant(fast). This can be done while part of choosing the correct line or after all lines are chosen on the Original screen of the summary of all horses.


What's too high or low? The normal variant is 17 or 18. 18 makes rounding off easier. So over 28 would be too high and under 8 too low. Each point is about 1/2 a length. For example what's the difference between a 32 and a 38, at those points its any bodies guess and they become inaccurate.


Many fail to take the variant for the line they have chosen into consideration and it will destroy readouts. It only takes 2 seconds to verify all your chosen lines. Naturally if that's the only useable line then your stuck with it and must use it otherwise don't do it.


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Old 06-30-2020, 12:52 PM   #5
Ted Craven
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Discut, welcome!

A few things:

Actually, some points in Mitch44's post above are incorrect, re Daily Track Variant DTV. His comments certainly apply to DTV supplied in the Daily Racing Form, not by TrackMaster which RDSS uses. Sartin discussed many studies he did back in the day on DRF DTV figs and indeed found that 17 was an average or mean.

When he/we started using TrackMaster data in the late 1990s, that changed. Whatever the average DTV was for a day, that was called 0. Faster than average is shown as negative DTV and slower than average is shown as positive DTV values with Average in the middle. That's the way the Configure Tab is organized to display the range and amount of a given DTV used in incremental and final time adjustments.

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The time value of a DTV point supplied by TrackMaster is 0.1 second divided by 8 = .0125 seconds per furlongs per race (using 8 furlongs as a norm). In a 8f race, -5 DTV means the final time was -5 x .0125 x 8 = -.50 seconds faster than average or 'par' for that track, surface and distance according to TrackMaster/Equibase's annual updated tables. +7 DTV in a 6f race means the final time was 7 x .0125 = .525 seconds slower than par. Etc.

What RDSS does with those DTV adjustments is to slow down or increase final (and incremental) times by fast DTV time values, and to speed up or decrease times by slow DTV values.

Times posted may be affected by environmental issues such as rain, wind and track maintenance and thus the DTV adjustments equalize times for the track/surface/distance over the season. However, much of time variance (possibly the majority) is due to the match up of horses running styles and preferred running styles (and quantity and mix of early, pressing and late running styles). Hence, Sartin (and by default) RDSS advocates a default setting of using HALF (50%) of the time value of those DTV points in adjustments - the other HALF of daily variance being a function of the aforementioned in-race matchup, not the environment. (Some prefer to use 100%, or even 0% - to each their own).

Further, to smooth out wild fast or slow DTVs (such as -30 or +40) often due to single races on a surface, or sudden storm, or race full of plodders or speedballs, RDSS provides outer margins of DTV ranges, outside of which DTV points are ignored. So, at the recommended DTV cutoff range of -15 to +15, using 50% of DTV, a faster than par -5 DTV turns into the time value of -2.5 and a slower than par +20 gets cut off at +15 then half of +7.5 gets used in the adjustment process.

The final time variant is also applied incrementally to the first and second call points.

As Mitch said, you don't see those detailed adjustments, but that's what is used.

The raw times from the Original screen are projected to TODAY'S distance by a formula, then modified by a race distance par-gap concept of Sartin's (another discussion) which brings into the adjustment the final and incremental speed of the given paceline (which also adjusts for surface), then DTV is applied per above, then ITV Inter-Track Variant is applied.

Inter-Track Variant was your original question, I think! The ITV is supplied by TrackMaster with each race card from their periodically updated inter-track normalization studies (annually, or as soon after a new track or surface debuts as valid data collection allows). This ITV is not shown and is proprietary. It uses the same scale as DTV = .125 per point at 8f. Times from slower tracks get sped up, times from faster tracks get slowed down. According to the Config settings, you can either use those ITV adjustments or not use them (i.e. enough rope to lasso the horse or to hang yourself).

In fact, after the Original screen (moving from left to right in the set of Tabs for a horse and on the Analysis screen), ALL the data is adjusted and conceptually no longer is being run at the host track - it is being run at (affectionately dubbed) 'Sartin Downs' - a hypothetical location of the mind where (as best as possible yet never perfect) the pacelines of each horse can be compared to each other. Of course, the more adjustments you make to running lines, the more fiction you indulge in. Hence longer projections of sprints to routes or vice versa, or 8f to 10f or longer distances should carry mental caveats. Some people like to apply restrictions as to how many furlongs difference to accept in using a running line for a horse in today's race (e.g. no more than 1 furlong difference). Caveat emptor. Use a slower line to represent what a horse can do today from a line closer in distance to today's race, and the horse looks worse. Or - let the software do the work most of the time, and develop a sense as to when things are off.

Other tidbits - using the DTV to decide when the track is 'fast' or 'slow' can be a better decision (i.e. based on time) than whether the track condition is rated sloppy, slow, yielding, etc. (Of course, sloppy tracks do throw mud in the faces of pressers or unfortunately positioned horses, thus affecting their times.)

You don't have to make ANY adjustments to the Adjusted numbers you see, or the Velocities or compounded factors which follow from those adjusted times. If you are trying to gain insights which you can use in your own program, hopefully you can benefit from the above described CONCEPTS, though you'll have to create and maintain your own DATA to accomplish the same adjustments.

Meanwhile, you can just use RDSS as is!

Ted
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Last edited by Ted Craven; 06-30-2020 at 01:15 PM. Reason: error describing time value of DTV point/furlong/race
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Old 06-30-2020, 06:54 PM   #6
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Whether one makes an adjustment from a Par such as 0 or 17 really makes little or no differences as long as the method is applied in a consistent manner and from a consistent Par or point of deviation.

Sartin always said that handicappers are adjustment happy and given an option will always make adjustments even when their not needed. They actually adjusted themselves out of getting the winner in many cases. His adjustments through research was reduced to 50% or half and the winners increased.

Many races are won without any adjustments at all because his research determined that the Match Up of the horses within the race contributed more in determining the winner of a race that the Daily Track Variant etc. etc. He said it was; 80% determined by the Match Up. I believe it could be even higher.

Manmade best times or Pars (used for deviation from the norm) always suffer from the time lag it takes to determine them. By the time that's done many track meets are over, a year of data is completely wiped out with a new surface or to prevent breakdowns soil is added such as SA. Lastly most are taken from POR instead of from POH of the winner of the race. The Match Up is as immediate, timely or accurate as one can get. It does represent the present.

Lastly DTV are nullified greatly but not totally by the use of using the 1Fr,2ndFR and 3rd FR, it spreads the inequities around or distributes the DTV which reduces the effect of it. Combine those FR's into compounded Factors such as EP, SP, He etc, and the effect is even less of an influence on the outcome.

I do know one thing and that is regardless of what is used as a Par or starting point for adjustments, abhorrent (unusual verses the norm) DTV or any other adjustment should be viewed with a very suspicious eye. I review my lines chosen to avoid unusual DTV in order to enhance the efficiency of the program.

DRF, RDSS and Bris all use different formulas for DTV, Beaten Lengths etc. What makes all of them successful is a consistent approach and formula.

The one area where RDSS shines over some other products is the adjustments used for stretch outs and cutback in distances. This is a frequent problem the handicapper must deal with in handicapping and Sartin is the only one to make an attempt to address this problem.

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Old 06-30-2020, 08:37 PM   #7
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Good post Mitch. As an aside to that, be cautious at Saratoga the first couple of days of the meet. They completely dug up the main track and replaced the base and the cushion. Who knows what effect that will have.
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Old 06-30-2020, 09:44 PM   #8
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Thanks Charlie very important info.
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Old 06-30-2020, 10:53 PM   #9
Discut12
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Thanks Ted and Mitch, much appreciated. I definitely need to get a little cozier with the inputs just for my own complete understanding. Thanks Lt for the tidbit on Saratoga, that could definitely mess up my favorite summer track. I live and preach that saying, "trust but verify", good words of wisdom.
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Old 07-01-2020, 07:16 AM   #10
Mitch44
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Hi Charlie,
I have read about Sar having a new surface. They'll probably add more cushion to lessen impact and prevent breakdowns, similar to what SA performed. That's good for the horses but surely will wreck havoc on DTV and ITV adjustments and figures.


More cushion will probably mean slower times and more favorability to P,SP and S type ESP's. That may increase the average prices paid because of the speed crazy public.


Eventually it'll sort itself out. One thing is it remains a level playing field for all bettors. RDSS users will have and advantage as the impact on its readouts get nullified to a large extent. They also card lots of Turf races which shouldn't be affected.


Say hi to Missy.


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