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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 05-29-2020, 09:41 AM   #11
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FWIW I don't keep a track model and largely consider it a waste a time. Its really over rated. When it was highly rated it was effective. What changed? Well the program changed and became much more refined.

For those that don't want to do the work you can consult the summary of the PP's from Bris. The stats there are decent. Notice I said decent and not great etc. Their downfall is that they use the visual ESP which isn't that accurate as the % Med. within the program. If any one does use the exporter within the program than you should be analyzing % Med by track , sex classes etc.

Well back to the program, the program contains the Match Up of the horses within it . And its the Match Up that supersedes any track profile or model. Also within the program is both the visual and % Med. ESP's. Now this confuses most and far too many default to the visual ESP. If it were my program, which it is not I would totally eliminate the visual ESP as its worthless today.

Few review the horses PP's within the program, there are all the ESP's for every race the horses has ran recently up to 10. Its easy to find the horses normal running style and also a change in running style which can produce some nice prices. This information greatly ups one's game. There are varying degrees of Early for an example with some too fast to win and can be eliminated, while others can adapt to todays POR save energy for the stretch and win, or be an EP or P. These correct ESP's also can help to pick correct pace lines.

I talked about this in my posts on "From the Top" Rather than taking the wrong fork in the road or not looking at the road signs along the way your answer to modeling, track profiles and the Match Up are within the program itself.

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Old 05-29-2020, 10:30 AM   #12
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Thank you for your reply. It was clear, constructive and very helpful.

May the monkey continue to thrive.

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Old 05-29-2020, 12:52 PM   #13
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Good post Mitch. I do keep a track model for each track I play by surface and dist. Being a 1 track a day player I find it's still effective for identifying the factors which are dominating at the track at the time. Also %med does help downgrade horses and break ties. That's the beauty of the Methodology each of us is free to use the programs as we see fit. No rules just guidelines.
Trust but verify
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Old 06-07-2020, 05:08 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by Lt1 View Post
I agree with Mitch. I only enter races I capped into my models. I don't enter mdn or 2 yr old races into my data and note races for 3 yr olds only. Like Mitch I'm also a pen and paper guy.
This is an interesting question, and I agree with this and with what Mitch said. I'm also a pen-and paper guy, but it's altered in a way, as there are too many things that need to be looked at, and the only way for that to happen, for me, is to let Excel do all the numbers, and point me to what it calculates, and to what I have told it to alert me to, when the numbers are exceptional.

The thing I don't do, is enter all races, even the ones I "do" into my data. Some few races defy evaluation, and/or an "outlier" wins. I mark them as such. I want to know how many races of each of the types I look at, "defy" my evaluation ... ie where a totally unexpected horse comes out of nowhere, and wins. It's fairly rare, but I need to deal with that in my break-even eval. It's a way to "write off" a race I missed, re-looked at, and not finding something I should noticed, just move on.

So on each of my race forms, for races I've actually evaluated and bet on, I have a box that asks "enter data ?" It is a big topic in statistics, ... this ... how to deal with "outliers". I leave them out of the data OR at least have a way of being able to select the outliers, to filter them later, as they really do nothing but "cloud up" the picture for the vast majority of races that are not outliers. Keeping a column for "outlier", is easy to put in an Excel record.

You could even make a case for only entering the races which lead YOU to win your bets.

Last edited by Dorianmode; 06-07-2020 at 05:11 PM.
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Old 06-07-2020, 09:33 PM   #15
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Outliers are just what you said and that is their unpredictable. Being unpredictable its doubtful at best that any concrete data can be mined from it.

I've seen races that totally define any explanation. It one thing to a contender go off form and quite another to have 4 or 5 and the race run completely contrary to any explanation. Or in other words the worst horses in the race come into the top 3 or 4 payoff positions. But it doses happen. If it was that simple we all would be better with longshots.

While these occurrences are unpredictable I believe they can be accounted for in one's betting approach.

Anyway good luck with your data search and approach.

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