A Question for the Old Hands

[joefour]

Hi All,

After having gone thru the major manuals and a bunch of the Followups without seeing an answer to what I have been looking for, I thought I would post this. I hope this doesn't come off as too weird a question, but does anyone recall any of the original PIRCO people ever tossing around the idea of taking a first timer in a maiden and trying to get some kind of an evaluation of the horse's pace ability by punching in a 5 or 6 furlong workout (which only shows a final time) with a 4 furlong time synthesized off of the final time? Sort of like what the Taulbot Sliderule allows. Two different ways to evaluate pace: With the 4F+Final Time, or w/out the 4F time and by Final Time only.

Joefour

[Bill V.]

I doubt you will find anything like that in a Sartin manual
I know in some of the seminar tapes Jim Bradshaw talked about
constucting pacelines from workouts and final times of horses with experience but who have no North America lines

To further show your in on your own with this
In PL4 Synthesis and Validator the first time starters
did not show any work outs Doc was not a supporter of bettiing
FTS
Bill

[joefour]

Thanks for responding, Bill.

I know the Doc didn't think much of maiden races, and even less of FTS, but I just wonder what kind of kind of rating for one might be obtained from one of the older Sartin programs with manual input. Would it even spit out any results that might be meaningful? What about a trainer that has say a 19-20% success rate with first timers and the first timer in question has a competitive pace rating extrapolated from his workout(s)?This is just an idea that might be explored. If it turns out to be useless, then so be it.

Joefour

[Hoof 11]

A lot of the workouts are improperly timed, i would take the workouts with a grain of salt. Personally i wouldn't want to gauge what a horse has done in the morning, against what horses have done in the afternoon, it's a recipe for disaster. Your better off with trainer stats with FTS, trainer intent, purchase prices, who owns the horse, frequency of workouts, distance of workouts, breeding, surfaces trained on, the distance the horse is racing today and so on...

Then you get into private workouts, if you are privy to that information you are one step ahead.

[joefour]

Hi Hoof,

That's more or less what I meant. You would have to have the DRF (ideally, Formulator) in hand to view the trainer stats. I may research this a little in my spare time and use Taulbot's Sliderule on the workouts. Will report back when and if I see anything meaningful.

[atkinsrr]

I agree with Doc...I stay away from Maidens 99% of the time even if they have pacelines within a furlong of todays distance. In 2012 I bet one maiden race all year and the only reason that I did is because it was stuck in the middle of 2 stakes races at WO and I wanted to bet the pic 3...(I hate when they do that)..anyway I hit the pic 3 but had to use 6 horses from the maiden race...but there are to many other races to choose from...I recommend stay away from maidens....

[Rverge]

hi, i will look at 2 factors about FTS. i will check how trainers do w/ FTS. a +/-
roi for the trainer. next i view the times of the other entries and compare them to pars for that track. if non of the other entries can run at least to the pars then i consider FTS unless the odds are very low.
MLcookie

[joefour]

Hi Rverge,

That's what I do too.
If the trainer's stat for FTS is high and the horse shows a series of good (and fast) workouts, they are probably trying for an all out effort today.