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RDSS Racing Decision Support System – The Modern Sartin Methodology |
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11-24-2009, 08:08 PM | #21 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,855
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So # 3 can run in the slop. Good for him.
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
11-24-2009, 08:16 PM | #22 |
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,855
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Race #5
A bit far off from post, but #4 and #6 present betting opportunities...
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
11-24-2009, 08:16 PM | #23 | |
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Posts: 311
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The price ain't nice
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11-24-2009, 08:17 PM | #24 |
AlwNW3X
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 45
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Hi all.. thanks for doing this card tonight.. track looks beautiful LOL..
I have a few questions, some are dumb, so please bear with me.. 1) Simply put, what are the 3 colors for on the horse #? Are they based on top 3 total pace? Energy? 2) What is the absolute final bet decision based on? If there is question, what is the final decision maker (putting odds aside for a moment)... i guess what is the final contender list? 3) Should you go beyond the last 3 racelines? If so, when? |
11-24-2009, 08:31 PM | #25 | |
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Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 311
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Bombs away
Quote:
I think I would look to play the 2 here to win and place and backwheeled with the 4.6. and 7. The 7 looks to be the class of the field, but is possibly a bit vulnerable in the slop. |
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11-24-2009, 08:32 PM | #26 |
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,855
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Ran out of time to post on the #5, but put my bet down on the #1 and #4. #1 scratched at the gate, so #1a ran for the entry.
Fave won.
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
11-24-2009, 08:34 PM | #27 |
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
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BJ, good call! #2 definitely best bet. I also thought #7 might be vulnerable. To much 'thinking' LOL
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
11-24-2009, 08:37 PM | #28 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,855
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Quote:
Quick answers for the moment: 1. For any factor, rank #1 gets RED, rank #2 GREEN, rank #3 GREEN. 2. BL/BL screen, check energy distribution on E/L Difference Graph 3. 64K Question! If intervening lines are non-representative, yes. If horse faced not as fast pace as he's shown can compete well against previously, use 2nd or 3rd rather than last. More to this... Ted
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
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11-24-2009, 08:38 PM | #29 | |
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Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 311
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Personal approach
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This should better be answered by Bill or Ted, but I do believe that the colors stand for Average Purse Value rank. Best of the last 3 at same distance or surface is standard Sartin practice, but I will go back a bit further if I don't find a comparable within those limits, and the timeframe is within reason - for me 90-100 days. Also, on turf races, many, myself included, use the Pizzola window - the best race in the full (visible) record. I am a value player, so for me, the odds are key. It would be better if others here answered that question. Best of luck. Cheers, B Jennet |
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11-24-2009, 08:50 PM | #30 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 311
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Using ML
Thanks Ted. Since I didn't have time to check odds I didn't realize how much the horse was hammered, and probably wouldn't have bet at those odds. I've found this to be a real problem at smaller tracks and is one reason I don't play them. As far as the thought behind it - since the horse appeared to have an edge on EPR, it might be helpedt by the sloppy conditions to hit the board - we've all seen this many times. It really is a myth that play isn't as sharp at smaller tracks.
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