When to disregard Best of Last Three

[Bill Lyster]

I wasn't sure where to put this, but I wanted to ask Mitch about lines for these three horses from today's 9th race at PRX. The 1-8-9 come from the same race and if you blindly accept the last race you probably do not come close to the winner.

In all three cases the adjusted speed rating is the highest or tied for highest for each horse. They are 3 YO Fillies and could improve but in at least two cases, the speed rating represents quite a jump in form.

My choices for lines are also shown. Can you comment on both the last line for each and subsequent lines chosen? much appreciated.

Here are the horses with races and workouts shown.

[Mitch44]

Hello Bill,
This is an easy one. I would use the last line for all 3. This line is the best Preceptor for all 3 horses. Nothing beats the Preceptor for picking the correct line.

This line is also each horse's best Total Energy and against the highest Pace of the Race in their charts.

It's not unusual for a 3 yr. old's best race to be L 1 or its last race. As the year goes on, they are maturing and improving. Those that always use the last line such as a FTL can get away with this many times with 3-year old's. Not so much with older horses.

Of these 3 I would toss the # 9 as it has the most to prove, it has the worst CR rating and least amount of earnings. A quick analysis of its running lines tells me this horse may be a router and wants a longer distance. I did not download this card but would be interested in its % Med. numbers.

The 1 horse has the top CR number and if you know how that computed it's even better because three of its races can be tossed for being too high up in class, lines 3,4 & 5.

The 1 has higher earnings and has an edge because the 8 & 9 must still prove themselves. It has a workout since last race which is good. Not a real high % for the workout but its OK.

All three of these horses are in form and a new cycle.

A thing to note here is that they all are cutting back in distance. I would give extra credit for the 1 & 8 for cutting back as they will run a better 3rd Fr. with the cutback. The 8 at least 1 length better and the 1 at least 2 lengths better. You could adjust their TPR to reflect this.

The # 8 horse shows the least deceleration and has a better DCL number and probably a better V/DC. but the 1 horse with the cutback will run a better DCL.

Between the 1 & the 8 it's a toss-up but I would definitely discount the 9 horse.

Go where the Preceptor takes you, the winner did something it never did before and improved from 1st Lasix. It was an unknown factor. You don't know before the race and it shouldn't have you questioning pace line selection. All races are not getable. I looked at LT1 selections and he didn't have the winner also. Bill you're in good company. No one gets them all.

Mitch44

[DanBoals]

Hey Bill,

I did not download this race, so I can't really comment on this race, but I have had races where all the tandem horses had made large improvements in the tandem race. In your example, the improvements were 8, 6 and 3 better on the adjusted SR, and their TM SR's were also their best ever. This doesn't seem like that huge of a jump, although it clearly is a jump, in my mind it is suspicious, but not out of the realm of possibility.

One race I remember, the adjusted SRs for my tandem horses were all 10+ more than their previous races. That made me very suspicious to say the least, all 3 of my tandem horses improved that much last time out with no discernible reason? really? Since all 3 ended up in my top 5 I passed the race. One of them did show and the other 2 non tandem horses in my top 5 placed and won. For me, with my handicapping, when I see multiple horses like this coming out of a tandem and they all made massive improvements, by that I mean 10+ on adjusted SR, and there are no real reasons for the improvements, I find it too hard to believe to bet on. It did burn me once when there were two tandem horses and they won and placed, but never when there were 3+ tandem horses. Also, in the one case it burned me, the improving horses were shipping in from a lesser track, which I am not sure if that was significant or not since they had different trainers.

Dan

[Mitch44]

I'm not a fan in the Tandem concept. Years ago, back in the 90's I used it. I found it hit or miss and not a solid Factor. It does work but with what kind of proficiency?

In my above post I separated the 1,8, & 9 horses using other Factors that are more efficient.

Even two horses with identical TPR of say 175 or identical Tot. Energy are not the same. A valid question always is how it earned that number? DCL and V/DC does and will outperform the Tandem concept.

I know now the believers in the Tandem concept will come out of the wood to justify their believe. I know better so save your breath. I've spent years honing my skills and the Tandem isn't part of my repertory.

Mitch44

[Bill Lyster]

Here is a shot with the % Med shown for all three:

[Mitch44]

The # 9 horse 1st race was from off the pace and ran SP, I would try this horse at a longer distance. It can rate and even through it has higher Tot. Energy shorter, I would try it longer which is what it may need to win.

The # 1 horse is Early or Ep and its best distance is probably 6F not the 7F it ran in last race. May get the 6.5 but best shorter.

The # 8 horse is E or Ep, improving and best distance may be 6.5 or 6F, can rate and can win at 7F with the right matchup.

Mitch44

[Lt1]

I went with the last line for all 3 although the 8 was more the my preferred 5 pts better then previous best. Just as a point of info had I used line 2 on the 8 the winner #6 would have become a RMath LSP along with 7. I still would have not won the race since I thought
that the 7 was the better LSP.
Tim

[Bill Lyster]

Thanks to both of you for sharing your reasons.

Bill

[Bill Lyster]

Originally Posted by Lt1

I went with the last line for all 3 although the 8 was more the my preferred 5 pts better then previous best. Just as a point of info had I used line 2 on the 8 the winner #6 would have become a RMath LSP along with 7. I still would have not won the race since I thought
that the 7 was the better LSP.
Tim

Tim, I hate to bug you on this, but I am a visual learner, so when you get time, could you post the above alternate scenario and go over what comprises Richie's LSP pick(s)? I guess I never understood what he was saying in relation to that aspect of his handicapping.

Thanks as always,

[Lt1]

Ok Bill I'll get to it tonight.
Tim