Marathon Method update for Derby and other long races - Page 3 - Pace and Cap

cigar · 05-03-2015, 09:01 PM

Thanks Bill for the in depth analysis on Derby 2015. You were dead on, I have to reread your post and learn the marathon method. Look forward to you Belmont analysis.

If you can suggest any other reading material would be welcome.

Bill Lyster · 05-04-2015, 10:04 AM

You are welcome. Actually it works well with the Preakness too. Just because its a sixteenth shorter should not deter you. Similar analysis last year put me on Ca Chrome and Oxbow in the last two, although CC did not take much analysis I'll admit.

The Method works a surprising amount of the time when done well.

By the way I do not see much changing at Pimlico. the top 5 finishers should be about all there is to look at, unless there have been some might impressive closers recently against fast fractions. Notice that the chart for the Derby had the top three horses in the top 3 at every call.

Bill

Bill Lyster · 05-04-2015, 03:11 PM

Here is the chart info and mile times, positions, etc for the top five in the Derby:

The top 3 never were out of the top 3 at any call, but notice how Danzig Moon made a run to the mile mark to be 4th by 6.25 and then faded at the finish. Oxbow a couple of years ago ran 6-5-2-2-6 and got within a half a length at the mile call in the Derby before winning in Baltimore.

Frosted did better than expected and with improvement could be a factor down the road. Prior to the Derby Danzig Moon and Frosted had the 13th and 15th best mile times, both showing sustained running form.

The top 3 had 9 of the top 10 mile times prior to the Derby After the Derby the top 3 had 8 of the top 10 mile times, with Bolo 6th, Carpe Diem 10th, Danzig Moon 12th and Frosted 17th

While the Preakness is not a true Marathon as defined by The Hat, you can still handicap it that way.

mowens33 · 05-04-2015, 04:01 PM

Bill, thanks for sharing your analysis (you were dead on), it was very informative and fun to follow.

Good to see that you’re hard work paid off!

I did not have the winner (I bet Dortmund and Firing Line) but did get a pretty nice perfecta and trifecta payoff!!

Thanks again, Mike

Bill Lyster · 05-04-2015, 07:48 PM

Yeah, same here. Had a pick three thru the Derby and a couple of other nice payoffs that were not consecutive. Anyway a good day all around.

Funny thing about young horses. You never quite exactly know when they have topped out or if they are still getting better. Bolo looked to be improving 2 back, then regressed off of a little slower pace in SA Derby and faded worse than the race before without any apparent excuse. The Derby was his next decline after a top effort (for now) a couple back. On to Baltimore! (hopefully)

Thanks Mike

KBROD · 05-04-2015, 08:27 PM

Frosted impressed me alot,just watched replay,he caught my eye around the far turn..wow...then i watched again,broke far back,took dirt,jock took him inside,backstretch he went 8-9 wide with a bold move around the turn in what i thought was a mediocre pace...im giving him a big shot if all goes well and he came out ok..

05-03-2015, 09:01 PM	#21
cigar 3-3-1 - 3-3-2 Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 394	Derby Thanks Bill for the in depth analysis on Derby 2015. You were dead on, I have to reread your post and learn the marathon method. Look forward to you Belmont analysis. If you can suggest any other reading material would be welcome.

05-04-2015, 10:04 AM	#22
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	You are welcome. Actually it works well with the Preakness too. Just because its a sixteenth shorter should not deter you. Similar analysis last year put me on Ca Chrome and Oxbow in the last two, although CC did not take much analysis I'll admit. The Method works a surprising amount of the time when done well. By the way I do not see much changing at Pimlico. the top 5 finishers should be about all there is to look at, unless there have been some might impressive closers recently against fast fractions. Notice that the chart for the Derby had the top three horses in the top 3 at every call. Bill Last edited by Bill Lyster; 05-04-2015 at 10:06 AM.

05-04-2015, 03:11 PM	#23
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Here is the chart info and mile times, positions, etc for the top five in the Derby: The top 3 never were out of the top 3 at any call, but notice how Danzig Moon made a run to the mile mark to be 4th by 6.25 and then faded at the finish. Oxbow a couple of years ago ran 6-5-2-2-6 and got within a half a length at the mile call in the Derby before winning in Baltimore. Frosted did better than expected and with improvement could be a factor down the road. Prior to the Derby Danzig Moon and Frosted had the 13th and 15th best mile times, both showing sustained running form. The top 3 had 9 of the top 10 mile times prior to the Derby After the Derby the top 3 had 8 of the top 10 mile times, with Bolo 6th, Carpe Diem 10th, Danzig Moon 12th and Frosted 17th While the Preakness is not a true Marathon as defined by The Hat, you can still handicap it that way. Attached Images

05-04-2015, 07:48 PM	#25
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Yeah, same here. Had a pick three thru the Derby and a couple of other nice payoffs that were not consecutive. Anyway a good day all around. Funny thing about young horses. You never quite exactly know when they have topped out or if they are still getting better. Bolo looked to be improving 2 back, then regressed off of a little slower pace in SA Derby and faded worse than the race before without any apparent excuse. The Derby was his next decline after a top effort (for now) a couple back. On to Baltimore! (hopefully) Thanks Mike Last edited by Bill Lyster; 05-04-2015 at 07:53 PM.

05-04-2015, 04:01 PM	#24
mowens33 Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2014 Location: CAMBRIDGE,MA Posts: 1,035	Bill, thanks for sharing your analysis (you were dead on), it was very informative and fun to follow. Good to see that you’re hard work paid off! I did not have the winner (I bet Dortmund and Firing Line) but did get a pretty nice perfecta and trifecta payoff!! Thanks again, Mike

05-04-2015, 08:27 PM	#26
KBROD Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 126	Frosted impressed me alot,just watched replay,he caught my eye around the far turn..wow...then i watched again,broke far back,took dirt,jock took him inside,backstretch he went 8-9 wide with a bold move around the turn in what i thought was a mediocre pace...im giving him a big shot if all goes well and he came out ok..