Wood Memorial - Pace and Cap

Bill Lyster · 04-09-2022, 02:19 PM

Wood Memorial workup:
The six and seven from Saffie Joseph look interesting. The seven had trouble in last out so I used line 2. The six has the best last line adjusted speed rating from an off the pace effort against the fastest pace. The six also has the best SC, and as a closer that usually makes me a little nervous especially when those behind it have faster F3 fractions. I am keeping him in because I think that today's pace will not come close to the 109 and change of his last outing, so I think he will be closer to the pace and/or have more energy in F3 to outlast all the others with the possible exception of Mo Donegal who has legit closing chance. Also the six has a handful of works at regular spacing and the works have been at or near the best of the day leading up to this race.

The seven could steal it on an improved performance.

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The primary screen shows top two CPR as the 6 and 7, best TT to the 6 with a close second to the 1 and 7. Hidden and FW belong to the one.

My top two are the 1 and 6. Hope the ML at 15/1 stays thru the start.

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Lt1 · 04-09-2022, 02:27 PM

Good luck Bill. FWIW Pizzolla has it 85761
Tim

Bill Lyster · 04-09-2022, 03:10 PM

Thanks, Tim

Ted Craven · 04-09-2022, 03:43 PM

Keeping this in the same thread for comparison.

With all the early pace pressure, I am most tempted to demote ALL the Earlies and Early Pressers and focus on horses which can close or Press and pass from not too far behind.

Thus the #1 and #8 for Win. #1 is a closer par-excellence and the #8 closes/presses though from a more forward position. Neither lose lengths on the Segments screen through the 2nd call - good news for those who will have to pass horses.

A wild-card is the #6 who closed against ferocious fractions last at GP (if the timing can be trusted) and won going away - always a sign of fitness and spunk which I like. I thought he was too untested against similar calibre races (no PP or PL ratings, poor CR+), but I would include it underneath along with possibly EP #5 or E #7 as best survivors of an early pace battle.

Will check the odds soon.

Thanks for your workup Bill! Good luck to you!

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Ted

Lt1 · 04-09-2022, 03:48 PM

Good luck Ted.
Tim

Ted Craven · 04-09-2022, 04:56 PM

Result. Missed the #3 underneath.

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Ted

Lt1 · 04-09-2022, 05:00 PM

Nice call on the1 guys.
Tim

04-09-2022, 02:27 PM	#2
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,163	Good luck Bill. FWIW Pizzolla has it 85761 Tim __________________ Trust but verify Last edited by Lt1; 04-09-2022 at 02:32 PM.

04-09-2022, 03:43 PM	#4
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,854	Keeping this in the same thread for comparison. With all the early pace pressure, I am most tempted to demote ALL the Earlies and Early Pressers and focus on horses which can close or Press and pass from not too far behind. Thus the #1 and #8 for Win. #1 is a closer par-excellence and the #8 closes/presses though from a more forward position. Neither lose lengths on the Segments screen through the 2nd call - good news for those who will have to pass horses. A wild-card is the #6 who closed against ferocious fractions last at GP (if the timing can be trusted) and won going away - always a sign of fitness and spunk which I like. I thought he was too untested against similar calibre races (no PP or PL ratings, poor CR+), but I would include it underneath along with possibly EP #5 or E #7 as best survivors of an early pace battle. Will check the odds soon. Thanks for your workup Bill! Good luck to you! Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™

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04-09-2022, 02:19 PM	#1
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Wood Memorial Wood Memorial workup: The six and seven from Saffie Joseph look interesting. The seven had trouble in last out so I used line 2. The six has the best last line adjusted speed rating from an off the pace effort against the fastest pace. The six also has the best SC, and as a closer that usually makes me a little nervous especially when those behind it have faster F3 fractions. I am keeping him in because I think that today's pace will not come close to the 109 and change of his last outing, so I think he will be closer to the pace and/or have more energy in F3 to outlast all the others with the possible exception of Mo Donegal who has legit closing chance. Also the six has a handful of works at regular spacing and the works have been at or near the best of the day leading up to this race. The seven could steal it on an improved performance. The primary screen shows top two CPR as the 6 and 7, best TT to the 6 with a close second to the 1 and 7. Hidden and FW belong to the one. My top two are the 1 and 6. Hope the ML at 15/1 stays thru the start.

04-09-2022, 03:10 PM	#3
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Thanks, Tim

04-09-2022, 03:48 PM	#5
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,163	Good luck Ted. Tim __________________ Trust but verify

04-09-2022, 04:56 PM	#6
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,854	Result. Missed the #3 underneath. Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™

04-09-2022, 05:00 PM	#7
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,163	Nice call on the1 guys. Tim __________________ Trust but verify