|
Google Site Search | Get RDSS | Sartin Library | RDSS FAQs | Conduct | Register | Site FAQ | Members List | Today's Posts | Search |
Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems |
|
Thread Tools | Display Modes |
03-22-2010, 09:14 PM | #1 |
Match Up Apprentice
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 2,105
|
Louisiana Derby
Entries
__________________
"To me, The Match Up supercedes everything" |
03-27-2010, 11:31 AM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,855
|
5 horses return from the Feb 20 G2 Risen Star:
The 2nd and 3rd finishers from that race who dogged Discreetly Mine all the way around are not returning, BUT Wow Wow Wow and likely The Program will put the early pressure on the Early Discreetly and appear to be able to apply a faster time than Discreetly faced on Feb 20. Plus a Tandem never repeats: the Feb 20 race will not run in duplicate fashion; some are still improving, some are taxed by the effort. At least at the ML Odds, this sets up promisingly for #6 Ron the Greek and #9 Stay Put on top, with 6,7,9 in an exacta box, #13 Drosselmeyer in 2nd or 3rd position, with #5 A Little Warm in 3rd or 4th. An alternate exacta strategy might be 6,9 over 7,13 I won't be able to watch or bet this live, so I'll advance bet the win and exacta box above. Good luck all! Ted Risen Star Stakes
__________________
RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 03-27-2010 at 11:34 AM. |
03-27-2010, 03:41 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
|
I think that the 10 and 7 cancel each other out with the sprint presser #5-A Little Warm inheriting lead. The 6 is very sustained but looks to launch from too far back. The pace should be faster than the tandem with the 10-7 and 5 up front and Drosselmeyer gained against a 111 and change, so I am boxing the 5-13-9 and looking for value in the win column. The six would be one to place in the 2nd and 3rd slot, with perhaps more emphasis on the 3rd slot, IMO.
Good luck to all, |
03-27-2010, 04:44 PM | #4 |
Match Up Apprentice
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 2,105
|
Right or wrong
Pace - Line 5 Wow Wow Wow. Horses that have run at FG #1 slow - OUT #6 slow - OUT #7 slow - OUT #8 slow - OUT #9 slow - OUT #11 slow - OUT #13 slow -OUT #5 beats #2 on thier GP Match up,#2 also beaten at all distances except 4.5f #2 - OUT Leaves me 3,4, 5, 10, 12 Question. Can #10 get an unconstested lead with open lengths and wire here?? i doubt it - OUT 3,4,5,12 #4 The Program, (got to take a stand here) although ML odds are not too bad, i'm not keen on betting horses doing something for the first time unless i think odds warrant a little interest, also, i'm thinking if this horse can't win Sham he needs a lot of help to win here - OUT Right, so we are left with #3,#5, #12,. I think we have an OTE race and i think i'm looking for horses that can sit around 4th, 5th, 6th against the liikely good fractions set by #10 #5 stretching looks interesting, but ML odds of 4-1 are unpealling - OUT. Contenders - #3 and #12, preference for former, latter minmum interest Apologies if post comes across weird, but i'm using my "Minds Eye" and then posting what i see. .
__________________
"To me, The Match Up supercedes everything" Last edited by Charlie D; 03-27-2010 at 05:01 PM. |
03-27-2010, 06:46 PM | #5 | |
Match Up Apprentice
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 2,105
|
Quote:
#3 seemed to be in trouble very early on for some reason, #5 ran a very nice race and #12 ran as ML suggested Chart
__________________
"To me, The Match Up supercedes everything" Last edited by Charlie D; 03-27-2010 at 06:50 PM. |
|
03-27-2010, 09:49 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,654
|
Nice handicapping fellows, even if it didn't turn out as planned.
Personally, I never beat myself up too much when things are out of whack two days before and after the full moon. The full moon is on the 29th this month which means you can expect an inordinate number of "things that don't make sense" through Wednesday. Look at the results today at Santa Anita. Three win payoffs over $20 at Chalksville, U.S.A. Now is a good time to pull the trigger on the those fourth and fifth rated BL/BL bombs you're normally afraid to bet. I haven't checked all the tracks, but take a gander at these mutuels at Aqueduct and Dubai: |
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
Kentucky Derby Step By Step | Bill V. | Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum | 21 | 11-23-2011 08:37 PM |
Release Notes - Version 0.98.7 | Ted Craven | RDSS Info, Reference | 2 | 07-17-2009 11:09 AM |
Derby File 2009 | Ted Craven | Speculator | 0 | 04-30-2009 08:01 AM |
interesting observations | Tim Y | General Discussion | 0 | 01-22-2009 03:39 PM |