Saturday Night Delta Stakes Sprint - Projected "E"

[Charlie D]

#12 Tandem Loser x 2 -OUT
#11 Tandem Loser X 2 - OUT
#10 Tandem Loser X 2 - OUT

Pace Projected at 21.4 - 45.2, however there is a lotta speed so i'd probably expect a tick or two faster here


Now looking for horses that can win or run well just below the Projected Pace.

These are #1 - #2 and #8.


FG Match up of #1 and #2 suggestst #2 wins it

#1 - OUT

FG Match Up of #2 and #8 suggests #2 wins it

#8 - OUT


Process of Elimination or the Match Up makes #2 my horse for win.


Now we just have to wait for the live odds to see if we play or pass.

[Charlie D]

Just noticed Pete C Post about #1 and #12 scratch.


Makes #2's task a little easier.

[partsnut]

The (#2) has a definite pace advantage and should set a fast pace.
The question for me would be if this horse can repeat what he has done before and sustain a fast pace today?
The (#5) has what it takes to win and fits the setup for this race which favors sustained.
The (#8) is the class of the race, has raced against much better and could wake up here and put the rest of the field to sleep.

I will go with a 5, 8, 2

[Dorianmode]

Initial take : 2-4-5-8
2 in dutch for sure.
Seems the pace will be very fast, (maybe sub 45). In that case the 5 and 8 can't do it ?
So 2-4 for now ... the public may bet the 2 down to oblivion -> may have to pass.
Need to see the tote board 2"-3" before the race, (and the exotic payouts) re : passing
Update right before the race .. may take a second look at some others.

[DaveEdwards]

Disappointed with myself for missing last weeks thread I’m definitely making the time this week. Race goes off at 2:06am here so not sure right now whether or not I’ll be staying up to watch it or not, but we’ll see how I feel later.

At the current time I know the 1, 11 & 12 are scratched which makes the task a little easier. I haven’t read any of the previous posts apart from Richie’s opener.

Looking through the runners I think 2, 4 & 10 will be trying for the lead at this pace. Interestingly the 2 has run 2C times faster on it’s previous 2nd & 3rd races based on the 1C pace.

The 6 burned at this pace 364 days ago. Cause to believe a 5yo horse would improve? Already out. The 8, not competitive at this pace recently out also.

Pacelines picked for each horse.

No 2, Race 2.
No 3, Race 2.
No 4, Race 1.
No 5, Race 1.
No 6, Race 8. 364 days ago, but it is this track & pace scenario.
No 7, Race 1.
No 8, Race 5. 420 days ago. Possible the horse may have matured, but the SR for recent races are relatively similar.
No 9, Race 1. Slower than today’s pace, but not sure he’d get good early position anyway considering the pace make up of the field.
No 10, Race 1.

Prior to matching my gut feeling here right now is that 2 is potentially the horse.

Starting the matching process then. Taking the 4 against the 2. All I’m seeing is the 2 taking the rail on a tight oval & gaining positional advantage over the 4 by the 2C. 4 out.

3. Won’t be getting close to 2 at any stage. Out.
4. Out.
5. Has the potential to close at this pace, but over 5F the 2 will have a distinct positional advantage. Out.
6. If the race was on turf perhaps. Not tonight. Out.
7. At the 1C pace this horse is competitive, but I feel the 2 is going to push the pace a little faster than the 7 is going to be able to deal with. Out.
8. Old line & competitive at this pace. 2 would still have the positional advantage I think. The most recent line looks a little worse also. Out.
9. Not much to say here. Out.
10. Will be behind the 2, but needs to lead. Out.

My call is still the 2 here & after all this I’m definitely staying up!

Will now read everyone else’s thoughts.

[Capcondo]

The 2 has some eye popping stretch call times and has the FPLR and has won from the 4th position in a field with a fair amount of speed. Shortening up from the 6F at FG two back, he is my choice.

I think the 7 as the only S type horse could make it interesting having run well against fast paces and having won from the 5 position at the first call in his last.

I'll try the 2-7 exacta.

Good luck.

Tim

[Charlie D]

Odds make it a Pass


All the best if you are playing

[Dorianmode]

Yup. I had a hunch the 2 would be an extreme favorite...so PASS. Don't like any of the exacta pobable pays. Looked carefully at the 7 also.

[Charlie D]

#8 pays 15 bucks

WD all those who collect

[Dorianmode]

parsnut ...

Great job.


Would still have passed. The 8 did have a big apv/class adv. If you use 3rd race back, (the best perceptor line), it puts 8 on top of RDSS 2.0, but don't like making excuses...makes me "twitch". Pass anyway. (Ritchie did have proj pace exactly correct).