Win & Place - Pace and Cap

alydar_ David · 01-11-2009, 02:21 PM

I usually bet to win. Sometimes one horse. Sometimes two. Rarely three.

From time to time I'll add a place and/or show bet on a longshot.

Today in Turfway Park's third race I had the unusual situation of betting two horses to win and place, neither of which was my top choice.

Lo and behold one of them ran second. I made money. I'm happy about that.

Ironically, the other horse ran third.

The horse I thought would win the race, did in fact win.

So, I wound up leaving the trifecta on the table.

Nothing like experiencing agony & ecstasy in the same race!

Race: 3 Win Place Show
1st 6 Hamilton Lewis (BRZ) 6.40 4.40 2.80
2nd 5 Seeking Larry 22.20 10.60
3rd 2 Just You and I Kid 5.60
4th 7 Johnny Sunshine
$2 D/Double 11/6 11.40
$2 Exacta 6-5 96.40
$2 Trifecta 6-5-2 847.00

Bill V. · 01-11-2009, 02:25 PM

Hi David

Races like yours were driving me crazy
I have been a lot less stressed out since I started to
use an eaxcta key or box as a place bet

But a $22.00 place price is beautiful to see

Bill

alydar_ David · 01-11-2009, 02:32 PM

Oh yeah, I forgot about the $96 exacta.

Thanks for reminding me, Bill!

(just kidding :>)

clore1030 · 01-11-2009, 03:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alydar_David

I usually bet to win. Sometimes one horse. Sometimes two. Rarely three.

From time to time I'll add a place and/or show bet on a longshot.

Today in Turfway Park's third race I had the unusual situation of betting two horses to win and place, neither of which was my top choice.

Lo and behold one of them ran second. I made money. I'm happy about that.

Ironically, the other horse ran third.

The horse I thought would win the race, did in fact win.

So, I wound up leaving the trifecta on the table.

Nothing like experiencing agony & ecstasy in the same race!

Race: 3 Win Place Show
1st 6 Hamilton Lewis (BRZ) 6.40 4.40 2.80
2nd 5 Seeking Larry 22.20 10.60
3rd 2 Just You and I Kid 5.60
4th 7 Johnny Sunshine
$2 D/Double 11/6 11.40
$2 Exacta 6-5 96.40
$2 Trifecta 6-5-2 847.00

A few weeks ago, I had a 70/1 shot that I liked enough to make a very rare W/P bet on instead of playing two horses to win.

Even with two of the top three betting choices ahead of him, it paid $18.60 to show as it was beaten by a nostril for second.

Rverge · 01-12-2009, 09:41 AM

oh yea! been there and done that. not only w/ tris and ex but pick 3's.
I just have to realize that if i don't bet $40-50 bucks a race covering 2-3 win bets 2, units on the place bet and units on the ex and tri w/a $30 pick three bet there are going to be those highs/lows on races.
i do bet 2-3 horses to win, then a place bet on my top selection, then maybe the same 2 selections as an ex. i figure one has tossed horses that don't win, stay away from the fav. that may only win 33% of the time and use the odds line percentage for the other overlays. tom brohammer told me in one of those TM on line meeting, para phrase, "if the fav is underlayed then there is a horsre w/ a chance that is overlaied" dick mitchell also explaied why a place and show bet on long shots acctuallly subsidized the fav.
my 2 cents er...units

Rverge

alydar_ David · 01-12-2009, 12:52 PM

I was talking to Dr.Z a couple of days ago about this. Here's what he said.

You can make all the bets if you have probabilities sufficiently better than track probabilities (odds).

Bet on those combos with positive expectation based on your model weighed by a portfolio theory.

01-11-2009, 02:21 PM	#1
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Win & Place I usually bet to win. Sometimes one horse. Sometimes two. Rarely three. From time to time I'll add a place and/or show bet on a longshot. Today in Turfway Park's third race I had the unusual situation of betting two horses to win and place, neither of which was my top choice. Lo and behold one of them ran second. I made money. I'm happy about that. Ironically, the other horse ran third. The horse I thought would win the race, did in fact win. So, I wound up leaving the trifecta on the table. Nothing like experiencing agony & ecstasy in the same race! Race: 3 Win Place Show 1st 6 Hamilton Lewis (BRZ) 6.40 4.40 2.80 2nd 5 Seeking Larry 22.20 10.60 3rd 2 Just You and I Kid 5.60 4th 7 Johnny Sunshine $2 D/Double 11/6 11.40 $2 Exacta 6-5 96.40 $2 Trifecta 6-5-2 847.00

01-11-2009, 02:25 PM	#2
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Ex Hi David Races like yours were driving me crazy I have been a lot less stressed out since I started to use an eaxcta key or box as a place bet But a $22.00 place price is beautiful to see Bill

01-12-2009, 09:41 AM	#5
Rverge Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: pittsburgh, now! Lancaster, CA. Posts: 2,531	oh yea! been there and done that. not only w/ tris and ex but pick 3's. I just have to realize that if i don't bet $40-50 bucks a race covering 2-3 win bets 2, units on the place bet and units on the ex and tri w/a $30 pick three bet there are going to be those highs/lows on races. i do bet 2-3 horses to win, then a place bet on my top selection, then maybe the same 2 selections as an ex. i figure one has tossed horses that don't win, stay away from the fav. that may only win 33% of the time and use the odds line percentage for the other overlays. tom brohammer told me in one of those TM on line meeting, para phrase, "if the fav is underlayed then there is a horsre w/ a chance that is overlaied" dick mitchell also explaied why a place and show bet on long shots acctuallly subsidized the fav. my 2 cents er...units Rverge __________________ i love every single minute of life, and, if one is lucky,then you must give it to others.

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01-11-2009, 02:32 PM	#3
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Oh yeah, I forgot about the $96 exacta. Thanks for reminding me, Bill! (just kidding :>)

01-12-2009, 12:52 PM	#6
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	I was talking to Dr.Z a couple of days ago about this. Here's what he said. You can make all the bets if you have probabilities sufficiently better than track probabilities (odds). Bet on those combos with positive expectation based on your model weighed by a portfolio theory.