Belmont Marathon, 7/9, 12 furlongs turf

[Bill Lyster]

The 1-2-3-7 have not been closer than 4th a long way back at the mile call and are out; the 6 lost to the 8 2x and is out; the 6 beat the 8 in a snail race that I cannot back.

that leaves 4-5-8-9 and no one wants the lead. I think most likely the 8 takes it based on being closer up, but it could be the 9. No one in this group has a late component greater than 98.2 in the races that I used, as opposed to several yesterday with 3 digit LPs.

In three races that I looked at for the 4 the horse ran 8-7-1, 5-5-1, and 3-2-1, always leading at the stretch call. the mile times were 137.5, 134.3 and 137.2.

the 5 has three races where the mile split is 135.1 and has run 4-5-2, 8-6-3, and 4-5-4 and while not on the lead was never far off (+1.5 max)

The 5 and 4 duke it out for the win; the 8 and 9 battle for the rest.

My top 3 are the 5-4-8.

Good luck in this one.