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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race' |
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07-18-2016, 09:47 AM | #11 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 389
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Maidens at this time of year especially are providing some great prices. If you know what to look for and know what has the possibility to create nice mutuals, maidens can make you a good chunk of change at this time of the year.
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07-18-2016, 10:01 AM | #12 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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maidens
Quote:
I never was much good at maidens. That is not to say you can not win with Phase 1 in maiden races. But my problem is fining races with less than 2 FTS oor races were everybody has at least 3 pacelines . I really only look for some spot plays in maiden races One is a early horse who in its last line had the lead into the stretch but collapsed, Now it come right back and is in a favorable post and early pace match up advantage. The other spot play is a SAR work out - not too fast The third is one I picked up from Hoof, That is I look for horses who have come within 1 length of winning in their life past performances In race 6 today at Parx I get the 2 and 3 horses |
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07-18-2016, 10:05 AM | #13 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Thank You Mark
Really nice of you to share your excellent work with us
Thank you |
07-18-2016, 10:09 AM | #14 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Thank You
Thank You Mitch and Mick
and thanks for the nice private message good skill Bill |
07-18-2016, 07:40 PM | #15 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,151
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Thank you Bill for all the hard work
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07-19-2016, 11:38 PM | #16 |
AlwNW1X
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 16
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DEAR LATEKICK THANKS FOR YOUR RESPONSE REGARDING Maidens , I was wondering are you using rdss or some other program/ also are you using other info besides rdss screens? also anyone that makes money on maidens please comment//// thanks turfsup
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07-20-2016, 02:09 AM | #17 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 389
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Yes i am using only RDSS.
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07-20-2016, 06:45 PM | #18 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,164
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I've found that unless one is very selective about which maiden races to play you will end up losing in the long run. I'm with Bill that races with 2 more unknown factors should be passed. But that's up to each person to decide. Let your records be you guide.
Tim |
07-20-2016, 10:39 PM | #19 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 389
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I agree with Tim on this one. The only time i will ever look at Maiden races with 2 or more unknown factors is if it is a race required to play in a contest, other than that they are automatic passes.
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06-21-2017, 07:29 AM | #20 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 878
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Tpr
A quote from Bill V.
"We can also ask can you do the match up without knowing who the leaders will be at the second call and can those leaders have enough late energy to hold on". My friend Jeff (shoeless) introduced me to Parx, also Bill, favorite track. Before I even consider to invest money in a track that I don't know nothing about, I need to run a track profile to see which one of my three (3) contenders is winning and how the winners is performing. What I mean by performing "which of my 3 contenders was leading at the 2nd call or position less than 4th". A small data sample, about 100 races for each distance would give me a small indication of what I'm looking for, I haven't reach that number but for what I see it looks promising. At 6f, after 32 races one of my contender was leading at the 2c 14 times and won the race. One of my contender was 2nd position at the 2c 6 times, and won the race One of my contender was 3rd position at the 2c 7 times, and won the race. It seems to me that my contenders do retain enough energy to win the race. 27 races @ 6f out of 32 the winner was position less than 4th at the 2c, and the average winner paid $15.48. I don't invest in winners, DD and PK3 is my forte. Races are won E or OTE. If you are able to devise a method that incorporate 3 E horses and 3 L horses and win about 32% of the time at the average winner of $15.48, you will make money. The caveat is what numbers to use to find successfully the 3 Early and Late horses. Last edited by gl45; 06-21-2017 at 07:48 AM. |
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