1/11/14 SA 6th - Pace and Cap

PeteC · 01-10-2014, 04:21 PM

Here is a race tomorrow at Santa Anita. I am only able to put up one race this weekend. If anyone else wants to put one up that would be great too.

It's nice to see some newcomers to liven things up here. Feel free to post your thoughts, analysis and questions. There are many very skilled and helpful people here. I know because they have helped me.

Bill Lyster · 01-10-2014, 05:52 PM

I see 4 early horses 1-3-4-and 10 and possibly the 5.

I used the early fractions from the 4's last race to match this group, so 22.1-44.9 for the first two and 57.6 based on interpolationg between the 2nd call and 6 furlong time.

The 4 and 10 should negate each other and if the 10 does not go with the 4, the 4 will be tough on the lead. The 7 and 11 can press these fractions and coming from a 57.1 5 furlong time, the 7 should blow by these in the stretch. He won from 4th 3 back and today should run from about 4th or 5th again. The 11 should rally late.

I would single the 7 and box the 7 with the 4 and 11

Speed · 01-10-2014, 07:06 PM

This is obviously a HIGH pressure pace race. Which normally lends itself to an off pace horse. The conundrum is the track favors E and E/P. The other challenge is dealing with AW/HP form vs Dirt/SA

But I see 1/10 leading followed closely 3/4/5 I feel 7 and 2 are the horses that can position themselves close enough and run by the speed as it fades in stretch. Feel like the 1 will suffer the most vs the 10 has held up some vs fast fractions.

Win on 7 and 7 over 2 4 10

viikinki · 01-10-2014, 07:22 PM

How do you guys handle poly-lines when dirt?

Anyways, 1,3,4,10 are earlies, I project about 22.2 - 45.0. Earlies knock themselves out.

That leaves 2,7,11 who can handle the pace and still make moves. 11 is out from the match-up. 2 vs 7.... well that's the problem. Because Bill and Speed picked #7, I am contrarian and pick #2.

edit: no I change it to 7 also. 7 is ahead of 2 in the str. Wins easily.

lone speed · 01-11-2014, 12:50 AM

Thanks for the weekly matchup race, Pete...

#4) Bertran Hill will likely control the 1st two early fractions as no horse will be able to keep up with this early horse even though there are other early speed horses in this race. The other early speed are drawn way outside, so Bertran Hill and Nakatani can slow the early fractions in this race...

The #4 is my choice in this match up...

Good skills

Capcondo · 01-11-2014, 01:57 AM

Thanks for posting this race Pete.

There is some early pace here but I don't think it's overwhelming.

The 1 and the 10 are the lead horses. The one figures in about 22.2 and the 10 can handle a 22.3.

The Rest:

3 is a fighter multiple times, can handle the pace, and can win from the 3rd position. Contender
4 can't handle pressure.
5 shows nothing against winners.
7 closes from 4th position. Contender.
8,9, and 11 are non-contenders.

For me, this race comes down to the 3 and 7. I think the 3 will sit 3rd early and win the race.

Tim

mikesal57 · 01-11-2014, 11:01 AM

thumbs up Cap

PeteC · 01-11-2014, 11:29 AM

Wow, great to see so many people jumping in. A mix of old-timers like Bill L., Capcondo, Lone Speed, and MikeSal, as well as some newcomers. Welcome everyone.

I see the 1, 4, and 10 as the main earlies, but in my mind I see them cancelling each other out. The 7 looks to be in prime position to turn the tables on the 10. I'll take the 7 to win.

PeteC · 01-11-2014, 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by viikinki

How do you guys handle poly-lines when dirt?

Anyways, 1,3,4,10 are earlies, I project about 22.2 - 45.0. Earlies knock themselves out.

That leaves 2,7,11 who can handle the pace and still make moves. 11 is out from the match-up. 2 vs 7.... well that's the problem. Because Bill and Speed picked #7, I am contrarian and pick #2.

edit: no I change it to 7 also. 7 is ahead of 2 in the str. Wins easily.

Good question. I can tell you how I do it. If I have to use a synthetic line in today's dirt race I will (or vice versa). However, since I'm looking for pacelines that match today's projected pace from the WHOLE PP's I often find a line from today's surface.

I do well matching on synthetic tracks here (DMR, HOL - well not anymore, and GG). I have not as as much success on synthetics other places around the country fwiw.

PeteC · 01-11-2014, 11:29 PM

The race runs early with the 1 going all the way. It had to fight for two calls before drawing off to win easy off the 136 layoff. No dice for us on this race, but as always, on to the next one...

01-11-2014, 11:29 PM	#10
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	The race runs early with the 1 going all the way. It had to fight for two calls before drawing off to win easy off the 136 layoff. No dice for us on this race, but as always, on to the next one... Attached Images

01-10-2014, 05:52 PM	#2
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	I see 4 early horses 1-3-4-and 10 and possibly the 5. I used the early fractions from the 4's last race to match this group, so 22.1-44.9 for the first two and 57.6 based on interpolationg between the 2nd call and 6 furlong time. The 4 and 10 should negate each other and if the 10 does not go with the 4, the 4 will be tough on the lead. The 7 and 11 can press these fractions and coming from a 57.1 5 furlong time, the 7 should blow by these in the stretch. He won from 4th 3 back and today should run from about 4th or 5th again. The 11 should rally late. I would single the 7 and box the 7 with the 4 and 11

01-10-2014, 07:06 PM	#3
Speed Maiden Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 3	This is obviously a HIGH pressure pace race. Which normally lends itself to an off pace horse. The conundrum is the track favors E and E/P. The other challenge is dealing with AW/HP form vs Dirt/SA But I see 1/10 leading followed closely 3/4/5 I feel 7 and 2 are the horses that can position themselves close enough and run by the speed as it fades in stretch. Feel like the 1 will suffer the most vs the 10 has held up some vs fast fractions. Win on 7 and 7 over 2 4 10

01-10-2014, 07:22 PM	#4
viikinki AlwNW3X Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 37	How do you guys handle poly-lines when dirt? Anyways, 1,3,4,10 are earlies, I project about 22.2 - 45.0. Earlies knock themselves out. That leaves 2,7,11 who can handle the pace and still make moves. 11 is out from the match-up. 2 vs 7.... well that's the problem. Because Bill and Speed picked #7, I am contrarian and pick #2. edit: no I change it to 7 also. 7 is ahead of 2 in the str. Wins easily. Last edited by viikinki; 01-10-2014 at 07:26 PM.

01-11-2014, 12:50 AM	#5
lone speed Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 695	Thanks for the weekly matchup race, Pete... #4) Bertran Hill will likely control the 1st two early fractions as no horse will be able to keep up with this early horse even though there are other early speed horses in this race. The other early speed are drawn way outside, so Bertran Hill and Nakatani can slow the early fractions in this race... The #4 is my choice in this match up... Good skills

01-11-2014, 01:57 AM	#6
Capcondo Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Tempe, Arizona Posts: 600	Thanks for posting this race Pete. There is some early pace here but I don't think it's overwhelming. The 1 and the 10 are the lead horses. The one figures in about 22.2 and the 10 can handle a 22.3. The Rest: 3 is a fighter multiple times, can handle the pace, and can win from the 3rd position. Contender 4 can't handle pressure. 5 shows nothing against winners. 7 closes from 4th position. Contender. 8,9, and 11 are non-contenders. For me, this race comes down to the 3 and 7. I think the 3 will sit 3rd early and win the race. Tim

01-11-2014, 11:01 AM	#7
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	thumbs up Cap __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

01-11-2014, 11:29 AM	#8
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	Wow, great to see so many people jumping in. A mix of old-timers like Bill L., Capcondo, Lone Speed, and MikeSal, as well as some newcomers. Welcome everyone. I see the 1, 4, and 10 as the main earlies, but in my mind I see them cancelling each other out. The 7 looks to be in prime position to turn the tables on the 10. I'll take the 7 to win.