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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
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11-23-2013, 03:40 PM | #1 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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working races
NICE HIT
"Wow about 6 pts ahead of 2nd horse in TPR and also big advantage in TE As Dick Schmidt used to say on those big advantage TPR horses RUN TO THE WINDOWS" Race 7 Esther's Classy Lass wins and pays $17.00 Last edited by Bill V.; 11-23-2013 at 03:45 PM. |
11-23-2013, 03:48 PM | #2 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Plus race at 5.5 distance in line 2 and 6
Chart
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11-23-2013, 03:52 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,164
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Nice hit Bill. Hope you loaded up on her
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11-23-2013, 04:08 PM | #4 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Thanks Tim
Yes but to tell the truth its always nice to win 5.5 races
My hard work over all these years worked out. and that is a big part of the methodology, the satisfaction 0f making decisions, not charting "factors" Sometimes I really need a Sartin Methodology win Doc must have whispered in Esthers ear Bill |
11-23-2013, 10:53 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Flint Hills in Kansas, formerly from Montana
Posts: 334
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That was terrific Bill!
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11-24-2013, 07:14 AM | #6 |
Grade 1
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Location: Cleveland, Ohio
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Very nice Bill!
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Terry |
11-25-2013, 01:17 AM | #7 |
Grade 2
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 92
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Congrates Bill
Wayne |
11-25-2013, 02:35 AM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 469
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Congratulations, nice pick.
I have a couple of questions about the pace line used. Is it because of your 5.5 specialty awareness, that you went to line 2 instead of 1? Line 2 seemed to be abnormally high for this horse, but her 2nd highest adj. speed rating of 81 was also from a 5.5 race, perhaps giving support to the choice of line 2. Did you disregard that her Early/Late graph was contrary to all her races except when she ran in routes? I know you like to look at the graphs at times. I didn't play or even handicap this race until reading this post. I ended up using line 1 as being current and appropriate and Esthers did finish 3rd on BL/BL and 4th of 5 on the TPR chart. Like you expressed, experience and hard work over the years has given you the insight to make the best decisions. May we all find our niche or specialty, wishing you continued success, and thanks for all your guidance.
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11-25-2013, 10:05 AM | #9 |
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Location: Flint Hills in Kansas, formerly from Montana
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I'm certainly not on Bill's experience level, but line 2 would have been my choice in this instance because it is what I call "conditionally perfect". That means there will be fewer adjustments necessary. IMO the fewer adjustments made the more accurate the line.
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11-26-2013, 09:00 AM | #10 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
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Quote:
I want to say its an honor to speak to you, as I am very impressed with your skill using the Sartin Methodology To answer your questions , Yes I used line 2. I feel that 5.5 races at Parx are not comparable to 7 furlong races. I am glad you noticed that line 5 at 5.5 furlongs is also a plus pace line. If you look at the total energy of both 5.5 races line 2 and 5 you will see that line 2, seems much better than other distances is not that aberrant than line 5. My feeling about line 1 was it was a plus line but it put the horse on a 4 week rest. a third reason I used line 2 is I saw my other contenders horse 1 4 and 5 all had big early sticks on the TPR screen and all three were deficient in LPR according to my records. I felt line 2 was the best of the last 3 at a comparable distance surface and competition level and that its late energy and preference to the 5.5 distance made line 2 the line to use. Thanks Bill |
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