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01-03-2010, 01:03 AM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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1/3 GP 2nd race 7 furlongs
First half of field:
Note the 2 horse is out of order Last edited by Bill Lyster; 01-03-2010 at 01:22 AM. Reason: added comment re: #2: NOTE: this race is 6 furlongs not 7f |
01-03-2010, 01:09 AM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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2nd race rest of field
[ATTACH]2nd half of field |
01-03-2010, 01:15 AM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Horse #6
Last horse is #6. I had memory problems with screenshots -- sheesh!!
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01-03-2010, 01:18 AM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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#6
Horse #6
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01-03-2010, 01:40 AM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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GP 2 on 1/3/10, 6 furlongs
1 -E, LINE 1 OFF SY Med TRACK
2 -E ; USED 22.3 45.2 111.2 AS PACE OF RACE 3 -EP, LINE 1 OR 3; L3 IS FASTER AND FROM MUDDY Belmont 4 -E, BUT REALLY NO FORM 5 -EP, LINE 2 SLOW AND OUT 6 -E, OFF 303 DAYS, WORK PATTERN IS SUSPICIOUS, MAY CLOG FRONT, OUT 7 -P, LINE 3 OR 7 ONLY TRUE PRESSER 8 -EP, LINE 2 USUALLY RUNS SEVERAL LENGTHS BACK IN ABOUT 3RD; WON'T BE 3RD TODAY, BUT LOOKS TO RUN FAR ENOUGH OFF LEAD NOT TO GET SUCKED IN 9 -E, ONLY RECENT IS SLOPPY TRACK AND NOT FAST ENOUGH, out With 5 E and more EP's need someone who runs from 4th-6th who can pass horses. Race to be run OTE with 3-7-8 as main contenders. 8 has pressed fastest pace and has closed against 44.7. 7 has run 6-6-3-1 vs a 45.3 and closed almost 6 lengths from 1c to 2c. 8 ran 3-3-4-5 against 44.7 and 108.8. so my two are the 8 and 7, favoring the 8 being closer to lead and vs faster time. Good luck to all of you, |
01-03-2010, 08:00 AM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 154
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Good Morning Bill.
I used 1's last line to project todays pace of 22.2, 45.4, 110.5 There are a good deal of pressers in this race, so I see race being OTE, although I do think the 1 will hold strongest of pace horses and could pick up bottom of exotics... 1- Wire to wire at projected pace, but is stretching out 2- Major stamina issues. Will need to go faster early for lead. Eliminated. 3- Excellent race 3 back, against roughly projected pace 4- Too Slow, Eliminated 5- Off the pace horse, but needs to go faster today. Eliminated 6- OTE, but hasnt been close last 3. Off Long Layoff. Eliminated. 7- Ecellent 3 back. Can be close off todays pace. 8- Great presser, who can be closee against faster pace. 9- Too Slow Eliminated. Contenders left are 1-3-7-8. The 1 as said, is an exotic threat only. Too much pace in here. The 7 has raced against slower pace, and has the slowest 7 furlong final time of the 3 horses left. Leaves 3 and 8 for top win honors. Both should be barely off the pace early. I cant see a deep closer passing this 1 late. The 1 has a decent finishing kick even after posting good fractions! So 3 and 8 to win. Good Luck |
01-03-2010, 08:38 AM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Staten Island, NY
Posts: 3,952
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Damn Guys..I'm usually the first one posting...Whats up!!!
I'll keep it simple...when have u seen a Calder first half done in 45 and 2 tenths?? Calder is one of the slowest tracks in the country... #2 should have a 5 lts lead by the half and make it easy.. looking at the results from that day confirmed that it wasnt a fast track..times were there normal slow in other races.. gl mike p.s- and Bill...Dont let that Hawaiian Sunshine get to you ... keep things in order
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01-03-2010, 10:23 AM | #8 |
MC 4000
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Bronx NY
Posts: 31
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Since live racing was canceled at Aqueduct today , I have plenty of time to try this Gulfstream race.
Here are the running styles of the horses: E – 1, 2, 6, 9 EP – 2, 8 P – 3, 4, 7 SP – 4, 5 I have #2 as both an E and EP, and #4 as both P and SP. For the projected pace, I chose #2’s most recent line. My projected pace is: 22.1 45 1:11 I threw out 4, 5, 7 and 9 as competitors because they were too slow or for other reasons. Well, I actually didn’t throw them out. That implies that there wasn’t much thought in the process. Rather, after careful consideration, I decided that these four horses were very unlikely to win. Comparing horses line by line: 1 vs 2 – Ugh! Those track-to-track comparisons I hate so much! Fortunately, both horses raced at Philadelphia Park, and it looks like #2 is better early. So I throw out #1, but with misgivings. 2 vs 6 – The #6 returns to the track after 10 months. His running lines for 2008 would make him a competitor, but he ran poorly in his last 4 races. Has he been helped by the layoff? If his races right before the layoff were good ones, I would consider him without hesitation. But since he was running poorly, I doubt he will recapture his form. #6 is out. 2 vs 8 – The #8 can handle any pace the #2 has run, and finishes faster. Plus, #8 has run at better tracks, presumably against better competition, and still finished well. I prefer #8. 8 vs 3 – I can’t choose between them. They perform equally well against a similar pace. If the odds are good, I’ll bet both. Good Luck, Marc |
01-03-2010, 10:43 AM | #9 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 154
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Quote:
Mike, Didnt you post recently you need to stop worrying about track variant and all that?? lol. Hey 2 will be long, so if you get it, it will be nice! Good Luck man. |
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01-03-2010, 10:56 AM | #10 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Staten Island, NY
Posts: 3,952
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Quote:
thxs Justin
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