Need Help Finding the Win Bet

[Appy]

"In races like this I do not project a pace of race ."

That is how you know Bill is smarter than I, because I always try.

I am seeing 6 and 4 fighting for it at the quarter, maybe with an edge to the 6 based on the presumption he made his running line mark versus higher class competition. 5 will be right there with them. The fight continues to the half pole. While the 4 shows a slight advantage in speed figure I like the 5 to gain a slight lead, but now there are others entering the fight. 6 is close and the 2 is closing fast coming to the 3/4 pole.
2,4,5,6...who's going to win it?
Here I would consult the track bias profile over the past day, days, and week AND check the trainer and jockey stats to see if one of these deserves extra consideration.

The thing about 7 F races is I consider those a discipline all their own. It's a "tweaner" distance that can favor either E or OTE. I believe certain horses can excel at 7 better than at 6 or 8. Sometimes an examination of dosage profile can reveal a tendency.

Looking at the screens by Don and Bill I would watch the board figuring to choose between 2 and 6, if any, as my W bet interest. Looks like a decent pace setup for your 2 if OTE has a shot and it can get 8.

[Ted Craven]

I have to step out very soon, so I'll put these thoughts down while I can.

The 4-5-6 are Earlies, or can be (the 4 can also close from 4th and 5th). The #5 is the Fighter and he WILL take the lead. However, the fastest pace he has been able to win against - recently is 25 49.4 (my Projected Pace) and the #4 and #6 will beat him up to run faster. I'm erring on the side of using his recent paces (not his older July CT Allowance efforts - he's not that horse anymore).

The #5 cannot win. If this is true, it's huge because it's a ML 1.8-1 and likely favourite. The race runs OTE. If the #4 stays out of the early fight it will be one of the OTEs: 4-2-3.

Which OTE runs positionally closest against the fastest pace? The #2

Any bet would depend on net odds offered on 2 of these 3, but currently I prefer 2-4.

[JIMBOB1002]

Hi everybody I haven't posted in a while.
Thought I'd show what I had on this race.
I bet the #1 and #2.

[Segwin]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Hi Appy

= :0

The race is still 2 hours away ! Lol

We will see ...

If there are scratches
If the early match up materializes
If Laurel is like Parx and the decide not to run at all

Attachment 36434

Hi Bill,

With regards to your picture in this post, what program/web site is that from?

Tnxs.

[Bill V.]

Terry
The screen is from my 4NJBets / TVG betting account

Bill

[CaptDon100]

Hi Ted #5 is a Fighter, I must have the definition wrong. What do you consider a Fighter?
Thanks

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by JIMBOB1002

Hi everybody I haven't posted in a while.
Thought I'd show what I had on this race.
I bet the #1 and #2.

Nicely done Jim! I made a judgement call whether the #1 was going to close any better against the projected pace than it didn't in its 2nd back (25.3 49.4). I could forgive the last race as way too fast a pace for it - but not 2 races in a row. I hope I would make the same kind of judgement (was it fit today, did it have an excuse) the next time and win because of it

The analysis was correct - the 4 and 5 dueled each other throughout (though the 5 did not get it's F1 lead - the kiss of doom) - setting up for an OTE.

It's nice to see that it ranks on top on its natural line selection (Line 3) - but I would still have had trouble selecting it over the 2 or 4, even if I thought it was a Win contender today.

[noddub62]

nice win JimBob

[Segwin]

Nice hit Jim!

[Bill V.]

Hi Appy

I don't want you to think I was being arrogant
If I can't find a fulcrum then I don't project a POR
Its something Michael Pizzolla writes about on page 117 of
Pace Makes The Race

Nice work Jimbob ,, Its good to see you back
I hope the Del Mar Blue Star shirt is keeping you warm in OHIO

Here is the chart
As we can see thanks to Ted for posting the PP's
I had no line for all the horses !



GS
Bill