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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 04-22-2014, 10:45 AM   #1
Bill V.
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Parx race 8 4/22

This is not a big stakes race or anything special
but I think its interesting.

First off in regards to the methodology, I used 3 lines for the ML favorite
#1 Primo Via. All three lines rate on the bottom of BLBL . I think I have a chance at a decent price if it Primo was to lose.
Another thing is the condition of this race. Primo just won 2 races in a row
Race 2 was an open 12.5 claimer and line 1 was a state bred restricted
AL47 race - the same as today but today's race is not restricted to state
breds. Today its seems anybody can get into this race.

Name:  conditions.PNG
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Here are Primo Via's lines

Name:  3lines on blbl.PNG
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Here is my BLBL

Name:  Might be something.PNG
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I extracted a line for Miss-redhead. I probably will not bet her to win as she is 0-10 sprinting but I will move her to a ITM only horse as she has place and showed sprinting in the past.




Hope they all run

Good skill
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Old 04-22-2014, 11:52 AM   #2
GeorgeC5614
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Looks like the horse you projected for, Missredhead, has been scratched. There is also a 70% chance of thunderstorms at Parx today, I don't know if that will make a difference in your strategy.

That is an interesting looking race. Just from these screens it looks like the 2, 7 and 6 will be going for the lead. I can't from that screen if the 5 will be close enough at the stretch to catch them. If the odds were right I might go with the 5, but the 6 looks like the bigger overlay.
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Old 04-22-2014, 01:29 PM   #3
Bill V.
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scratch

Thank you

Yes Missredhead is scratched

Here are my lines before hides

Name:  Lines before hides.PNG
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I hope to be able to post my after hides at 3 minutes to post
and still have time to get my bet in

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good skill


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Old 04-22-2014, 01:34 PM   #4
Ted Craven
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I also think the #1 could be a good bet against! Looks like EVERYBODY can either set or close against faster 1st and 2nd Call fractions. She likes to be up front though can close from 3rd position. However, the #2 will fight for the lead and can match and better the #1's best early or pressing efforts.

If the #1 gets a lot of the Win betting pool (< 2-1 or 33%) it may be possible to bet on several other horses, but at least including the #5 and #2.

Let's see the weather and odds. Thanks Bill!

Ted
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Old 04-22-2014, 03:27 PM   #5
Bill V.
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Twin Spires

Anybody else get the feeling Twin Spires is painfully slow today

I hope they get up to speed soon

Bill
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Old 04-22-2014, 03:38 PM   #6
Bill V.
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Now I can't even get on to Twinspires
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Old 04-22-2014, 03:55 PM   #7
Ted Craven
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Bill,

I'm in at TS and elsewhere. Are you sure you didn't hammer the odds on the #5
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Old 04-22-2014, 03:59 PM   #8
Bill V.
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bad karma

Yes The 5 is being bet like crazy

i finally saw the odds on my tablet but I can't get the bets in
maybe its for the best
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Old 04-22-2014, 04:50 PM   #9
Bill V.
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Yes it was

With the 4 out and the 5 being hammered down to.80 cents
there was no value for me

The 5 and the 1 ran 1-2 so it was a good pass for me anyway

Sorry it turned out to be a dud race ,

Such is the downfall of doing races before the fact, BTF is good for ego's but
not so much to learn from.

GS

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i
L
L
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