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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 03-31-2018, 11:22 AM   #1
tleusin
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UAE Derby

I am not a fan of horses shipping to the Kentucky Derby from the UAE Derby as I think the turn around is to quick for acclimation. That being said Mendelssohn's victory was visually astounding, his turn of foot on the turn and through the breathtaking. According to an announcer new track record.


http://www.dubairacingclub.com/race/...o/trakus-chart

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n8QIwrw_63c
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Old 03-31-2018, 04:19 PM   #2
Mitch44
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That distance was 1 3/16, just 1/1/16 of the Derby distance.


I use to do comparative handicapping as a spot play. Consider these time facts on the same surface and todays date.


Mendelssjohn: 25.09 48.46 111.87 136.,31 155.185 Wire to wire 1 3/16


Thunder Snow in the 10 million race 4 & up:


25.73 50.43 113.89 137,21 201.185 Wire to wire.1 1/4


Mind Your Biscuitts: 24.62 47.04 110.124 Won off the pace. 6F
POR 23.52 45.51 110.124



Notes: 1. W,P & S was taken by 3 US horses with last year BC winner finishing 3rd
2. Purse 2 Million
3. These horses in the sprint run about 1.08 80 or so at some place like SA & 1.09's at other tracks.
4. Based on that I would say this track was slow as compared to Meydan
5. at least 6 lengths for the time based on a norm of 109.2/5 and 9 lengths slow based on a norm of 108.4/5.
6. This really puts Mendelsson time in perspective based on the sprint time and the 4 & up time by Thunder Snow who beat several US horses, notably West Coast.
7. It could be one race too many and may never win again from an tremendous effort, plus can he recover from the Dubai trip in time for the Ky. Derby?


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Old 04-01-2018, 11:55 AM   #3
tom
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He certainly dropped a brick into the Derby soup bowl this year!
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Old 04-01-2018, 01:07 PM   #4
Bill Lyster
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This is just from memory, but the UAE track does not give up intermediate times like this very often. The 111 six furlong split and the mile time look to be competitive with any US track times.

Yesterday's splits
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Last years winner Thunder Snow ran 113.86-138.70-157.78 on other than fast track. TS won the big race yesterday running 113.89 - 137.21

Yesterday's Fla Derby ran 111.68 - 136.46 interior splits

The UAE Derby and FLA Derby winners will be hard to separate if you use The Hat's Marathon Method to determine your KD choice!
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Old 04-01-2018, 01:43 PM   #5
Mitch44
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Bill Lister:


All 3 of the above races in my post set track records. So for that track it was definitely fast. But as a comparison and looking at the world class sprinters ( W,P & S all US horses) the 110.124 is more in line with a track like the old Calder where they ran their Summit of Speed each year. I would say it was at least 6 LG. slower than most typical US tracks.


I didn't like the fact that the jock didn't reserve some of the horse for the future. Winning by 18.5 lengths. Even through the purse was 2 Million but not smart riding. He did let up the last 50 yards or so.


This horse was looking around in the stretch at something in the infield so he still isn't giving 100% and the jock said he still races greenly.


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Old 04-01-2018, 03:30 PM   #6
lone speed
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Very Impressive Performance

From Trakus charts:


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Now if I can wake up Gene Rayburn from his yearly "hibernation" to assist in adjusting the fractional times for the "no run up" and metric times...

Quick Adjustments for Mendelssohn:

23.39 46.44 1:10.34 and mile fractions of 1:34.92
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Old 04-01-2018, 03:38 PM   #7
Mitch44
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Actually the times are correct for no run up distance, When they position the timer away from the starting gate the times are faster because they get up to speed and only the first split is fast while the others splits are accurate. The final time needs to be adjusted due to the first split being faster.


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Old 04-01-2018, 06:50 PM   #8
lone speed
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitch44 View Post
lone speed:


Actually the times are correct for no run up distance, When they position the timer away from the starting gate the times are faster because they get up to speed and only the first split is fast while the others splits are accurate. The final time needs to be adjusted due to the first split being faster.


Mitch44

Thanks Mitch... Maybe Gene Rayburn can chime in here..

Some math calculations:

2 Furlongs does not equal 400 meters but equals 402.33 meters

4 Furlongs does not equal 800 meters but equals 804.66 meters

6 Furlongs does not equal 1200 meters but equal 1206.99 meters

8 Furlongs(Mile) does not equal 1600 meters but equals 1609.32 meters

Thus, if one wants to compare apples with apples, the multiplier for each 400 meters to get the same comparisons with the US Stateside usage of Furlongs will be a multiplier of 1.005825.

Now one may differ in opinion of the standing starting gate factor with no run- up. Gene Rayburn used 2 seconds....I might use 1.80 seconds....

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Revised fractions of Mendelssohn

23.42 46.93 1:10.48 with a mile fraction of 135.06

Come on Gene Rayburn...Hibernation time over......
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Old 04-01-2018, 10:07 PM   #9
Mitch44
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lone speed:

Your calculations are spot on, & at 2 F = about 6 2/3 feet. Less than 1 length of a horse which is about 8 to 9 feet. Sartin used 10 feet initially because it made the math easier. Later he did refine it to the distance being measured, I believe 2 feet for every 1/16 being measured. However it really doesn't make any different what length is used as long as all horses,lines etc. are treated equally without a hap hazard approach.


The most important aspect of this race is the variant. While the track was fast and Medelson, Mind Your Biscutts and Thunder Snow all broke track records for their distance and races, the speed of that track needs to be equated to a US track for any future races in the US. No different than a track to track adjustment here in the US.



Based on my down and dirty analysis I put that track 6 to 9 lengths slower than most US ovals depending on which track in the US. E.g. 9 for SA and 6 for most other tracks or perhaps for CD. That's at 6F a route would be a little less. I use that because the Thunder Snow won off by 18.5 lengths And Mind Your Biscutts is a known quantity and the P horse which were only a head apart. Their a known quantity to which lends its self to a intersection or one can find an unknown point from two known points.

For me the variant is more important than no run up distance. For 100% sure you can adjust the extra 2 meters etc. but the variant is the key for me in a down and dirty solution. Additionally for 100% accuracy don't forget the lost feet for going wide for top finishers which is also calculated by Trakus and has a direct bearing on time and beaten lengths for horses.



Bottom line is Medellson ran a monster race & faster than 4 & up best in the world, even through a 1/16 shorter on same track and same day. Due to shipping plus a 3 yr old it may knock him out however if handled properly and not pushed into the Triple Crown if not ready he is going to a force to be reckoned with. Than again he may just be a NTL who shook loose and got brave. We'll see.

I wish you luck with the Ky. Derby and all future wagers.

Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 04-01-2018 at 10:26 PM.
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Old 04-05-2018, 09:56 AM   #10
Mitch44
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The Racing Post Ratings are out for the Dubai races.


Thunder Snow a 4 yr. old running for a 10 Million purse at about 1 1/4 and beat West Coast gets a rating of 123.


Mendelssohn a 3 yr. old running 1/16 shorter at about 1 3/16 was given 122.
This verifies the observation that Mendelssohn ran a monster of a race for a 3 yr. old. Additionally the jock didn't leave much in the tank but did let up shortly before the wire and he was looking around in the stretch and not concentrating, both of which could cause a 1 length difference from the 4 yr. old Thunder Snow.


One big reason turf horses don't perform on dirt is they don't like the kick back of dirt in their face. A turf horse that can get the lead or can position up front can avoid the kick back and run on dirt. Was this the reason he won or just got brave on the lead? I don't have his PP's to make further evaluations at this point and he still has to get to the derby by remaining sound and not missing a bet. Travelling isn't an issue as he has shipped and won before.


I'm not comfortable adjusting the race for both the variant and slight differences in of the fractions (about another 5 lengths). It would appear too much and Sartin began using 1/2 of adjustments before passing. Also that differences in each fraction helps to equalize the extra 1/16 that Thunder Snow ran. That , the ease up before wire & looking around places him as good as the older best in the world horses.


Last year I observer the Trakus for Thunder Snow in the UAE Derby and came to the same conclusions that he was a terrific horse and bet him in the derby for an upset. If you remember after the break he started bucking and standing up on his hind legs. Sooner or later the first foreign horse will win the Ky Derby, perhaps this is the year.


For a TPR I give Mendelssohn : Unadjusted 84 EPR 101.25 LPR & TPR of 185.25
6 length for variant Adjusted 88 EPR 103.25 LPR & TPR of 191.25
Notes: 1.These are my own ratings



2. The 3rd FR doesn't have any deceleration in it as the original in PMTR and phase one.



3. Last year I give Classic winner Gun Runner 91.50 EPR 85.75 LPR & TPR 187.25 at SA, his last 1/4 FR was 26.26, to adjust to 1/3/16, 26.26 is divided by 4
( 6.565 per 1/16) 6.565 is deducted to obtain 3rd FR.


4. Thunder Snow 76 EPR 113.50 LPR & TPR 186.50 adjusted to 1/3/16 and 6 lg. added for variant, 2/3rds to EPR & 1/3 to LPR.


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Last edited by Mitch44; 04-05-2018 at 10:10 AM.
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