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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race' |
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03-08-2016, 01:47 PM | #11 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Hi Mike B and Mitch
Mike I promise to get more clear on how I use the fulcrum,Mitch brings up a few good points. I am looking at the pace of race , but only at the second call, Mitch makes a great point because the race starts at the break and then what about the first fraction ? The fulcrum works but I felt that of all the step for phase 1 it's probably the most problematic The 4 authers of Pace Makes The Race , original version , All wrote there parts separately. But for them to include Pizzollas fulcrum helps me to use it . Only 2 of the 4 authers updated Pace Makes The Race Doc says he did not because although it worked Phase 1 was a feeding ground for pirates and he didn't want his name on something that only got $6:00 horses * I repect fully disagree. I don't know about Pizzolla , The remaining 2 authers updated the numbers And took out stuff from Doc . Anyway I promise to get a little more involved with why and how I use the fulcrum , GS Bill Last edited by Bill V.; 03-08-2016 at 01:50 PM. |
03-08-2016, 02:27 PM | #12 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 154
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Quote:
Pizzolla argued that adding the early and late ratings together just gave you an overall speed rating, and that using the two separately gave you more information. The other two said that the TPR was a compound rating that was more powerful than a simple speed rating. Pizzolla went on to write "Handicapping Magic", which comes up with two separate ratings, one is speed adjusted for early pace, the other rates the final fraction adjusted for beaten lengths. Both use the fractions of the fulcrum horse as kind of projection or par, rating each horse relative to the fulcrum. The two ratings are in entirely different formats, and cannot be combined. |
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03-09-2016, 06:18 PM | #13 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Fulcrum
Mike B
Its about 10 minutes to post time so lets see what happens Here are the last lines for all the horses in race 7. Its a 9.0 turf race at Turf Paradise. For now lets just look for the fulcrum Looking at the last lines, the only horses that qualify are horses 3 and 8 because they were less than 5 bl at the 2nd call and final time . Here are the TPR numbers Who has the fastest ( best ) EPR Its horse 3 withan 87 now as long as the 87 EPR is not aberrant for horse 3 , than the 3 would be the fulcrum - I would expect about a 111 EPR in this race, although 9 furlongs More to come , Last edited by Bill V.; 03-09-2016 at 06:35 PM. |
03-09-2016, 06:33 PM | #14 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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okay I will post up the official result chart
This points to the 3 being the fulcrum and the 2nd call pace of race
being about 111 Now I snapped this as the race was being run' I just ran , Look who !! The 3 battled for the lead right from the break, It had the lead in the second fraction but it was dead tight at the second call, The 3 was right there.. The pace of race was 112 but the fulcrum correctly called the 3 , Now how do we use this before the race? Like I said Its hard to explain how this is possible but it seems to work often. You may not get the exact pace of race , we were off by over 1 second here , but you will get a very good idea of the leaders by position If you have a deep closer with only a 76 EPR but your fulcrum is 87 you have to ask, Can my horse make up 10 points of EPR ? Is Its LPR strong enough to overcome being 10 points behind More to come, but this is one of the ways I us the fulcrum |
03-09-2016, 07:04 PM | #15 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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My look at the 7th from TP
Step 1 Top 5 TPR Line 1
8 5 6 4 3 Step 2 Fulcrum horse 3 87 ( 111 ) Step 3 Running styles Horse 1 Sus Line 1 Horse 2 EP 1 Horse 3 EP Line 1 Horse 4 SP line 1 Horse 5 Sus line 1 Horse 6 Sus Line 1 Horse 7 Sus line 1 Horse 8 SP line 1 No reason to go past line 1 on anybody Step 4 Who has the top EPR The 3 has the best EPR 87 Early Presser Step 5 rate the lines make your decisions Now will the 3 with a 87 LPR be able to hold on ? . The top TPR horses They are 8 3 and 5 Top 3 VDC = 3 5 8 My bets 3 and 8 5 may be too far back with only a 78 EPR |
03-09-2016, 07:06 PM | #16 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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pace lines
horse
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03-09-2016, 07:07 PM | #17 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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horse
5 6 7 8
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03-09-2016, 07:17 PM | #18 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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The results
The 4 wins - just a shade off my radar
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03-09-2016, 08:18 PM | #19 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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The only line I would have changed is on the #1 horse and would have used L 2 which more fits his running style otherwise little difference in TPR.
A very contentious race and a great challenge to handicappers but very gettable. Would have been a great race to put up much earlier for followers to get involved. At these levels they can be very good challenge. Mitch44 |
03-09-2016, 08:46 PM | #20 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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will do
Quote:
Yes it was, I missed this one but the numbers as you say were tight. I looked at line 2 also. The 84 EPR is not really this horse's comfort zone We can see this by the much shorter blue LPR line, The blue lines for line 2-10 which shows its normal LPR style/ability is to run with much more late energy, I looked at its + lines and thought " positionaly too far back" looking at line 1 I said what was its excuse ? The comments "4 path btwn no late bid" so I don't know . I went with error on the side of off form, Looking at line 3, at the same distance and surface but against better shows nothing with only a 169 TPR As far as this race, I only put up my work up to show Mike B some of the ways I go about using the fulcrum, I wanted to post the fulcrum before the race, so I could show its ability, I only had 10 minutes. Once the race was over I figured i would post up my looks i will post practice races in their own threads and i will give us all more time If you would like me to post a race to give you enough time to work it. ask me Good skill Bill |
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