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Matchup Discussion Matchup Discussion and Practice |
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05-12-2009, 08:18 AM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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One step at a time
I received this PM yesterday. It came at a very good time(karma).
I am going to copy it here and this thread hopefully will move forward with some races in few days ok? My thoughts are that some "collective feedback" on what will be shown will benefit us all. Here is the PM: HI Richie! I've been using the Match-up 5 step approach for the last 2 months or so, and have gone thru Mr. Bradshaw's Match-Up 2 book pretty thoroughly (even though I bought it 2 years ago when he first offered it on Hat Check). The results so far have been pretty good. At first, I lost more than I won, but I have been profitable my last three visits to the track using only the 5 step approach (I finished only 60 cents ahead yesterday, but it's still a profit). My biggest problem area so far seems to be shippers. I try to factor in whether or not another track is faster. Sometimes I'm right, sometimes not. I don't feel as though I have a handle on that yet. In race 4at Belmont yesterday, I threw out the winner because I thought he was a bit too slow to beat my eventual choice. But the winner had never run in New York. He had run only a few races at Oaklawn Park, and it turned out he was fast enough to win. My only consolation was that he beat my horse by a nose, and with a little luck, I would have had the winner. I wasn't too upset. It's all part of the learning process. (In the third and sixth races I also had the second place horses. In the 3rd, my horse lost by a head, and in the 6th my horse lost by half a length. A few inches either way and I could have had a very good day.) Another problem I have is that I tend to be lazy. I've lost races because I haven't looked at ALL the lines. I tend to stop after the first three or four. Lastly, I'm not too sure what to do with horses that are coming back from long layoffs. It seems that every day there are several horses that took the winter off and are returning to racing since Belmont opened. I know I've lost a few bets because some of those horses have come back ready to run. Then there are others who come back and I'm still waiting for them to finish. I'm following your suggestions. I'm using the five step approach exclusively for the next month or two, and then I'll start studying the races in the Hat Check forum. I really feel that I am making progress. The Match-up is pattern recognition, and I see that unless I do lots of races using the 5 step approach, I am not going to acquaint myself with the patterns I need to recognize.
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"Grampy I'm talking to you!" |
05-12-2009, 08:47 AM | #2 |
Match Up Apprentice
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 2,105
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"Match Shipper against Shipper " (Las Vegas Seminar 91: Tape 9_2 -9_3)
See Post #7 http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5642 #3 was coming in from Philly, but in it's PP the #3 had a Monmouth run to Match against the Monmouth runs of the #8 #8 wins the Match Up easily as you can see and that is how it was in the race.
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"To me, The Match Up supercedes everything" Last edited by Charlie D; 05-12-2009 at 08:57 AM. |
05-12-2009, 08:54 AM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Staten Island, NY
Posts: 3,952
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This is from Richie
Track Equalization Chart http://americanturf.com/equalization...fm?showchart=1 this will give you #'s to compare mike
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Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack |
05-13-2009, 09:29 AM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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Belmont
Just was told about this raw matching race from Sunday at Belmont. I'll put up the pps here.
I worked the race not knowing the result cause I don't bet NY and I lost the race matching.Honestly even with 2 horses I can't pick him but everyone's Mind's Eye is different man. So take a peek, make comments if you like and I will wait to see what happens and post the result chart in a couple of days if that is cool.
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"Grampy I'm talking to you!" |
05-13-2009, 09:30 AM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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balance of the field. I set the middle tab on tandems for the field.
ok
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"Grampy I'm talking to you!" |
05-13-2009, 10:02 AM | #6 |
Match Up Apprentice
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 2,105
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Pass
Another race that will be far easier to Match Up and probably pay a similar Mutuel will be along very soon. We are not THE HAT.
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"To me, The Match Up supercedes everything" Last edited by Charlie D; 05-13-2009 at 10:13 AM. |
05-13-2009, 11:33 AM | #7 |
MC 4000
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Bronx NY
Posts: 31
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Hello Everyone
Hi,
Just to introduce myself, I'm the one who sent the original note to Richie. I've been visiting Pace and Cap on and off for the past couple of years, but I have only started doing the Match-up, specifically the 5 step approach, for about two months. I don't have much of a background in the Sartin Methodology. I've bought a 4 or 5 of the old publications on Ebay, but that's about it. Looking forward to actively participating in this discussion. Regards, Marc A. Mojica |
05-13-2009, 11:50 AM | #8 |
Match Up Apprentice
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 2,105
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Welcome aboard The PaceandCap ship Marc
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"To me, The Match Up supercedes everything" |
05-13-2009, 12:21 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Staten Island, NY
Posts: 3,952
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Welcome Marc..
this is the best and only place you will learn the match-up... it will take some time...but worth it!! be patient and practice,practice,practice visit The Hat Check forum and read,read,read.. mike
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Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack |
05-13-2009, 12:55 PM | #10 |
Match Up Apprentice
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 2,105
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LA Seminar - Hat
Shippers (paraphrasing) I ignore em. Most of time i do not know where they come from. ** Hat Helper** - "Rich check the horse (s) in every race who raced against the fastest pace in their LAST race. You need to look at him closely" - Jim Bradshaw Ignore where they come from and look closely at FPLR
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"To me, The Match Up supercedes everything" Last edited by Charlie D; 05-13-2009 at 12:58 PM. |
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