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05-04-2009, 11:39 PM | #1 |
Match Up Apprentice
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 2,105
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I like reading Andy Beyer, but....
i get impression he does not understand The Dynamics of Incremental Velocity and Energy exertion
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...050302026.html If you run fast early you will decelerate faster than normal as energy depletion kicks in, the result of this is a slower overall time compared to the norm or par, which then results in a not so good speed figure. Maybe John should send him his 2009 Kentucky Derby Fatchart to help him understand
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"To me, The Match Up supercedes everything" Last edited by Charlie D; 05-04-2009 at 11:50 PM. |
05-05-2009, 08:05 AM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Staten Island, NY
Posts: 3,952
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Hi Charlie..
Beyer summed it up in his last paragraph what I figured out..hopefully ..lol Even with a ground saving trip, the explosion he made in the stretch was amazing...I believe the off track was a big part for him. Does anyone have Tomlinsons off track numbers to confirm this? mike
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Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack |
05-05-2009, 12:22 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,654
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I guess if it doesn't subscribe to your pet theories it doesn't exist? Give us a break, Andy.
The top two CSP ran first and second. Cold exacta. Bingo. This was published online days before the race. Free. I, of course, was "too smart" to bet it. http://www.pacefigures.com/ROTW/CD_090502C.htm Last edited by alydar_ David; 05-05-2009 at 12:32 PM. Reason: wrong link |
05-05-2009, 12:52 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 223
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David:
Thanks a bunch for posting that Index. WOW!! Can you believe that? It was right there for the taking.. I was another one of the brilliant ones that would have never had this horse via any means that would be considered anything remotely close to conventional handicapping. Incredible stuff. Is that from CJ's site by the way? Have a Good day and Good Skill Always. Vinnie
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"All human error is impatience; a premature renunciation of method". F. Kafka |
05-05-2009, 12:56 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,654
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Yes, Vinnie. That's CJ's site.
Have a good one today! :>) |
05-05-2009, 07:14 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,151
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Cj did feel though that the PF numbers were too low to warrant a bet.
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05-06-2009, 07:33 AM | #7 |
Match Up Apprentice
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 2,105
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Looking at the post race evidence
CJ number FPLR 3rd run Jockey booking Breeding and the non show of horses like Friesan Fire, Dunkirk ( though i'm not sure if that made much difference) it's not really the shocker many people are making out and a skill goes to those that found this 50-1 shot Pre-race imho I like many never saw it new specs needed imho
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"To me, The Match Up supercedes everything" Last edited by Charlie D; 05-06-2009 at 07:50 AM. |
05-06-2009, 08:13 AM | #8 |
Match Up Apprentice
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 2,105
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Calvin Borel last 3 years
Mine That Bird Denis of Cork Street Sense Seems we may need to look very carefully at the horses Calvin is riding in future regardless of what the betting market and Beyer speedfigure are telling us.
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"To me, The Match Up supercedes everything" Last edited by Charlie D; 05-06-2009 at 08:21 AM. |
05-08-2009, 12:31 AM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Tempe, Arizona
Posts: 600
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Good point Charlie D,
Beyer made his fortune by selling his speed figures. I don't think he made anywhere near that kind of money betting on them. When I read the article, Beyer said that the figure for the derby would have been a 95 if the winner had not been in the race which would have been one of the lowest in history. If you take the winner out of every derby, my guess is the second horse has run less than a 95 many times. The final time for the derby was a 2:02 and change which is very representative of many derbys in the last 30 years. I personally am very thankful for having Beyer's figures in the racing form. It gives me good prices on the horses I bet. |
05-08-2009, 12:21 PM | #10 |
turf historian
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,455
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How many BIG PROFILE voices are there in horse racing today?
We need this fellow as wildly inaccurate as ever but he is good for the sport.
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Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind." |
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